Week 11 NFL Vivid Picks Plays: Best Player Props
After our Week 9 winner, we let the people down in Week 10, but I have a good feeling about this week. There are some strong matchups and situations we can take advantage of in the Vivid Picks markets.
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Each week, I’ll be posting a free article with a few of my favorite plays of the week, some reasons why, and what I would play each leg to. If you enjoy my reasoning and want 15+ official plays each week, snag yourself a betting subscription for as low as $5! Also, join our FREE Vivid Picks Discord.
If you like my plays below, Vivid is offering a FREE boost! All you have to do is sign up using our code (4for4sub), click on “NFL,” click on the special boost pinned to the top, and your play will be boosted after you submit it! This week's is 7x using these three plays!
Week 11 NFL Vivid Picks Plays
Jakobi Meyers under 38.5 receiving yards
The entire passing game has suffered as of late, but Meyers may have taken the biggest hit. Over the past three weeks, he has 21, 38, and 19 receiving yards on just eight total targets. Last week, we got a preview of what their offense will likely look like going forward, which is a lot of Josh Jacobs and designed throws to Davante Adams.
On paper, Miami's overall metrics look bad, but the reality is they were injured for most of the season. They finally got back Jalen Ramsey and Xavien Howard before the bye and played the Chiefs well, limiting Patrick Mahomes to 185 yards. None of the Chiefs wideouts even cleared 35 yards. Now they have a much easier matchup against AOC and the Raiders' run-heavy offense.
Adam Thielen over 6 receptions
Thielen has 6-or-more receptions in 7-of-9 games this season and now draws a tough matchup against the Cowboys. Thielen has been the Panthers' primary target against man coverage, with a 38% target share in such instances. The Cowboys play man coverage at one of the highest rates in the league. On top of all that, the Panthers should be trailing as 10-point dogs and be inclined to throw the ball essentially all game.
Justin Herbert under 264.5 passing yards
This seems like a crazy one after he just wrecked the Lions for 323 passing yards, but Keenan Allen is banged up, and the Chargers have a much better matchup on the ground against the Packers. The Packers' run defense hasn’t played well this season, ranking 25th in run defense EPA and 27th in explosive run rate allowed. Meanwhile, their pass D ranks top-10 in both of those same metrics. They also play Cover-3 on nearly half of their snaps, which Justin Herbert has struggled against. He has only completed 62.2% of his passes for 7.0 yards per attempt against that this season.
If you like my plays, Vivid is offering a FREE boost on them! All you have to do is sign up using our code (4for4sub), click on “NFL,” click on the special boost pinned to the top, and your play will be boosted after you submit it! This week's is 7x using these three plays!