Week 10 NFL Betting Picks: Team and Game Totals

Handicapping NFL sides and totals is not a perfect science, though it gets easier to navigate as the season progresses. The more we can contextualize in-season data and adjust it for the situation and opponent, the better. Whenever possible, lean into situation-adjusted stats over raw counting stats. Utilize metrics like success rate and explosive play rates over total yards and points against. Our Team and Player Stat Explorer tools can help.

I will bring you my favorite totals of the week in this space all season long, focusing on what I believe to be the most significant inefficiency in the market: individual team totals. Working around key numbers is critical, and concentrating on one team or matchup helps eliminate a bit of variance in each bet.

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Let's dig into Week 10's totals.

*Betting lines are accurate at the time they're posted in Discord.

Leans/Lines I'm Monitoring

Key numbers are incredibly important to totals and team totals. I haven't made any official plays yet, but here are a few spots that I'm watching to see if any news can impact the current line. Again, all official plays will be posted in Discord first, so I'd advise getting in there if you haven't already done so.

Week 10 NFL Totals Bets

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Las Vegas Raiders Under 17.5 (-108, FanDuel)

We're asking Aidan O'Connell and the Raiders to exceed their season average (17.3 points per game) against one of the league's best defenses?

The good vibes in Las Vegas are real, but this week's challenge is quite different than what they faced last week against the Giants. The Jets' defensive metrics would look even better if they didn't have multiple games without key contributors, especially in the secondary, but this is undoubtedly the best unit that O'Connell has faced in his short time as a starter (Chargers and Giants). The Jets' defense ranks among the top six in both passing and rushing success rate, a balanced attack that forces offenses to make explosive plays to succeed against them.

The Jets also lead the league in pressure rate at 30.5%, doing so with one of the lowest blitz rates in football. The Raiders offensive line has performed well this season, but the Jets have a bevy of pass rushers to mix in and keep O'Connell and this offense line on their heels all game. The sample is small, but so far, O'Connell is taking sacks at a crazy-high clip. His pressure-to-sack rate is 41.2%, which is laughably and unsustainably bad. He's been sacked on seven of the 17 pressures he's faced, and he's certain to eat a few sacks in this matchup against the Jets.

The Jets are fourth in red zone scoring defense, having allowed just ten red zone touchdowns on 24 red zone trips. On the right side of a key number, I love this play on the Jets if you can find a 17.5.

Dallas Cowboys Over 26.5 (-125, DraftKings)

We've seen glimpses of it lately, but there's more upside to this Cowboys' offense than what we've seen so far this season. They've played in a handful of uneven games, and some of their season-long metrics are lagging behind other top-tier clubs.

They've settled for too many field goals, which can be a sign of overly conservative coaching, which we certainly have here with Mike McCarthy. Dallas is second in the percentage of drives that end in an offensive score (45.1%), but they're 29th in red zone touchdown percentage at 43.8%. They've had 32 drives into the red zone, tied for the sixth-most in the league with Miami and San Francisco. The Dolphins have scored a touchdown on 24 of their 32 red zone trips, while the 49ers are at 21. In comparison, Dallas has scored on just 14 of their 32 red-zone-cresting drives. Based on the Cowboys' talent and other overarching offensive metrics, I expect some positive touchdown regression coming for this offense.

Tommy Devito's Giants are more than capable, and likely, to give the Dallas offense short fields and perhaps even a pick-six. Again, being on the right side of key numbers here is crucial.

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