Fantasy Football Impact: Ezekiel Elliott to the Patriots

Ezekiel Elliott signed a 1-year contract worth up to $6 million with the Patriots on Monday, August 14th. The deal consists of $3 million in base salary, $2 million in incentives, and a $1 million signing bonus. Elliott was one of the last major free agent shoes to drop before the season starts (along with Dalvin Cook, who signed with the Jets just a few hours after Elliott). Here’s a look at the fantasy football impact of Elliott’s move to the Pats.

What Does Ezekiel Elliott Bring to the Patriots?

Elliott is far from the prime of his career. He has amassed 1,881 carries in seven seasons in the NFL thus far, which ranks first among all running backs since 2016. His yards per game numbers have also declined in each year of his career, further indicating Zeke’s best years are far behind him. However, Elliott was still a productive player last season playing in an auxiliary role to Tony Pollard in Dallas. He punched in 12 touchdowns and ran for 876 yards, which earned him an overall RB19 finish in fantasy. Elliott is also well-regarded as one of the best pass-blocking running backs in the NFL. While he might not be a spring chicken at 28 years old, Elliott will still contribute to the Patriots' offense in 2023.

The Patriots had very little running back depth behind starter Rhamondre Stevenson before the signing, so Elliott should fit nicely into this offense. While Stevenson was great between the 20s last year, he struggled in short-yardage and goal-line situations. He scored just two touchdowns within the 5-yard line despite seeing 13 touches (a 15.4% conversion rate). Elliott, for comparison, scored nine times on 19 touches (47.3%), giving him a rate over three times as effective as Stevenson. This means Elliott will definitely hold value in fantasy, especially if the Patriots’ offense takes a jump with Bill O’Brien replacing Matt Patricia as the offensive coordinator.

If you’re searching for a player comparison for Elliott in the Patriots' offense, Damien Harris is a good place to look. Harris dealt with injuries last season but still saw over 100 carries as the thunder to Stevenson’s lightning. Harris was also a great short-yardage rusher and scored 15 touchdowns back in 2021. The Patriots gave about 150 carries to non-Stevenson rushers last year, and I expect Elliott to receive most of those carries himself this season. He should offer fantasy appeal as a later-round bench option—Elliott doesn’t have enough juice left to be a reliable fantasy starter, but he will see enough high-value touches to be a reliable backup that can fill in for a starter in a pinch.

Impact on Rhamondre Stevenson and Tony Pollard

Stevenson’s fantasy value definitely takes a hit after the Elliott signing, but I don’t think he’s hurt too drastically because Elliott and Stevenson do not share much of the same skillset. I fully anticipate Stevenson will still see more than enough volume to be fantasy relevant. After ranking top-five in the league in both breakaway run rate and yards after contact per rush attempt in 2022 (according to PFF), Stevenson is simply too talented not to see the field and produce. Throw in the fact he is a great pass-catcher, and I’m optimistic Stevenson will still return value on his ADP once it goes down a little. Stevenson’s ceiling is lower now because he will likely score fewer touchdowns, but I’d still be targeting him in the middle of the fourth round near guys like Jahmyr Gibbs and Aaron Jones, who are both in very similar situations.

Elliott was reportedly considering re-signing with the Cowboys, so I’ll also quickly address what the move means for Tony Pollard. To put it frankly, like Dobby the Elf in Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets, Pollard is officially free. The fantasy industry has been clamoring for Pollard to be the Cowboys' No. 1 RB for nearly three years, and our wish is finally granted. Pollard was the RB7 last season despite splitting time with Elliott, and his ceiling is now even higher. Pollard looks to be fully recovered from the leg injury he suffered in the playoffs last season, and will still be running behind a great offensive line in what should be a productive offense. He is a great pick at his ADP in the second round, as Pollard has the type of big-play ability that gives running backs a lethal floor-ceiling combo.

Bottom Line

• While his numbers have declined since his younger days, Ezekiel Elliott was still an impact player for the Cowboys last season and will play a serious role in the Patriots' offense.
• Elliott will likely operate as the Patriots' short-yardage back which will give him plenty of opportunities at the goal line, and he will also see the field on account of his pass blocking. Elliott is a solid depth option at his ADP in the 13th round and offers a low ceiling but a high enough floor. I'd consider him even as his ADP starts to rise in the next few days and expect him to produce similarly to A.J. Dillon and Samaje Perine, who are being drafted around pick 100.
• Rhamondre Stevenson’s fantasy value is diminished a little bit because of the signing. However, Stevenson is still an incredibly talented runner and pass-catcher, and he should see enough volume to be a great draft target in the fourth round of fantasy drafts.
• In Dallas, Tony Pollard is officially the No. 1 RB and has legitimate top-five upside at the position if the Cowboys' offense lives up to its potential.