NBA Player Prop Bets: Shai-Gilgeous Alexander Will Exact His Revenge On The Clippers

Mar 21, 2023
NBA Player Prop Bets (March 21, 2023)

We’re officially back on track with the NBA player props article after a 2-1-0 showing in last night’s piece and looking to continue the positive momentum on Tuesday’s six-game slate. My three favorite player props for the slate are outlined below.

Regarding the process behind the plays, the suite of tools that 4for4 offers are second-to-none. I use the NBA Splits Tool to break down injury impacts and lineup changes and the NBA Prop Stat Explorer to look at historical data for how the player performs relative to their prop and compare it to our in-house projection. Using these alongside the Player Prop Finder to shop for the best line, 4for4 makes betting on NBA player props a stress-free and fun process.

Now, let’s put the tools to use and get to today’s top player props.

Today’s NBA Player Prop Bets (March 21, 2023)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 31.5 Points (-110 at DraftKings)

We’ve attacked this Clippers’ defense relentlessly since the trade deadline, and I am going right back to the same well on Tuesday, as the acquisition of Russell Westbrook has completely changed the team’s dynamic.

Since Westbrook’s debut (Feb. 24), the Clippers have ranked 22nd in defensive rating (116.7) and 11th in pace (100.51), creating far more betting-friendly environments for opposing players. On top of this, they’ve also allowed the sixth-highest field goal percentage in the restricted area (70.7%), as they’ve gotten eaten alive at the rim.

This caters right to the wheelhouse of Gilgeous-Alexander, who leads the entire NBA in drives per game (24.2) and shots off of drives (11.2) per game. Not only has he attacked the basket at will this season, but he’s also topped 31.5 points in seven of his last 10 games, averaging 34.6 points per game over that span (and 31.4 per game on the season).

It’s hard to find a better matchup for Gilgeous-Alexander than the revenge spot he finds himself in on Tuesday, and that’s something I want to buy into.

Risk: 1.10 units on DraftKings to win 1 unit.

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Wendell Carter Jr. To Record a Double-Double (+135 at DraftKings)

The Wizards have been a matchup to attack with centers all season, and that trend is going to continue on the Tuesday slate, as Daniel Gafford is one of the best centers to attack for opposing big men.

Ranking 26th among qualified centers in defensive real plus-minus (1.85), Gafford has been the poster child for allowing center production this season, but the Wizards as a whole have been horrid defensively as well (21st in defensive efficiency).

This matchup comes at a perfect time for Carter Jr., too, as he’s posted four double-doubles over his last five games, averaging 20.4 points and 9.8 rebounds per game over that span. With Kyle Kuzma out, this game carries a razor-thin one-point spread, which should allow Carter Jr. a full workload barring foul trouble and give him plenty of opportunities to log his fifth double-double in his last seven games.

Risk: 1 unit on DraftKings to win 1.35 units.

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Jayson Tatum Over 28.5 Points (-125 at BetMGM)

Sticking with the theme of targeting stars and their point totals, I present to you Jayson Tatum. The superstar wing has seen more variance in his production as of late but steps into one of the best spots on the entire slate.

Despite the recent inconsistency in his scoring output, Tatum has posted a usage rate of at least 30% in seven of his last nine games while dipping below 29% only once (last game). This should instill confidence despite recent frustration as Tatum heads into a mouth-watering matchup against a Kings team on the second leg of a back-to-back.

After traveling from Utah back to Sacramento for this game, the Kings come into it allowing the third-most points per game (118.3), the second-highest field goal percentage (49.3%), and the third-highest 3-point percentage (37.3%), all while ranking 25th in defensive efficiency (114.2) and 10th in pace (102.8). Talk about an environment catered to scoring…

Tatum should have no problem dicing up this defense, especially with the extra possessions, given the pace of play. I’m buying into his points prop of 28.5, which sits almost two full points lower than his season average (30.0).

Risk: 1.25 units on BetMGM to win 1 unit.

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For the most up-to-date picks check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord. This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks (and those from the rest of the betting staff) on the year. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.

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