NBA Player Prop Bets: Chetmate moves forward
In an effort to make the regular NBA season games more competitive, tonight kicks off the in-season tournament, where each team will face off with some of their regular season games counting towards an in-season tournament bracket. For more details, you can read this article on nba.com: NBA In-Season Tournament details.
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November 3rd NBA Player Prop Bets
On yesterday's four-game slate, we hit on our only two props, with Scottie Barnes and Kelly Oubre going over their points prop with ease. Both of these players have been a favorite of mine. A few weeks ago, I pushed Scottie Barnes to win the Most Improved Player award at +1900; this is already down to as low as +800 on some books. One of the biggest edges in sports betting is news. It is critical to follow the news up to tip off with lots of potential opportunities opening up. Here are a few plays I am looking at for tonight. Join the Discord for the most up-to-date information as the news unfolds.
Chet Holmgren (OKC) Over 15.5 Points (-118 FD, -119 CZRS, -120 DK/BetMGM)
I would play this up to 16.5 points at -125.
From an overall NBA perspective, it is unfortunate that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is out for this game, but it is a massive opportunity for Chet Holmgren to elevate his usage, and points production. Even in a small sample, we have already seen Holmgren get an uptick in usage when SGA is not on the floor with him. Holgrem has played 76.2% (109) of his 143 total minutes with SGA on the floor, and only 34 minutes without SGA on the floor. In the small sample, there is a +1.78% usage increase, and I project that this grows even higher with a larger sample size.
Overall, Holmgren is averaging 28.6 minutes and 15.8 points in his first five games. With SGA out, I expect not only for his minutes to go up with normal progression, but his usage to go up as well. SGA leaves behind significant usage, and I want to attack these opportunities when they present themselves.
Risk: 1.18 units to win 1 unit
Tyler Herro (TOR) Over 23.5 Points (-115 Bet365)
Tyler Herro, this season has started off hot. In three of the first five games, Herro has played 40+ minutes and also has scored 28+ points in three of the five games. Herro should clear this 23.5 line with ease in an up-pace matchup here, with the Wizards leading the league in pace so far this season.
In addition, the Wizards are third worst in net defensive rating. The Heat should be able to handle this Wizards team easily. While there is blowout risk here, Herro can clear this line in three quarters in that scenario.
Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit.
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