2023 Dynasty Rookie Draft Strategy

Feb 16, 2023

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After the conclusion of an exciting Super Bowl, we officially now enter the “offseason,” as if there really is such a thing for those of us who play within the dynasty format.

In recent weeks I’ve covered my 2023 Dynasty Rookie Draft First Look, Top 10 Rookie Running Backs, Top 10 Rookie Wide Receivers, and, most recently, my first Dynasty Rookie Two-Round Mock Draft, all here on 4for4.

Please review the first article linked above if you wish to know more about my experience and style in scouting players, and also check out everything dynasty at DLF.com.

The lay of the landscape in every annual dynasty draft is very different based on the talent and positional depth of each class. No two drafts are the same and 2023 is no exception to that rule. In 2022, much hype and anticipation was afforded the 2023 class and, while it’s a good class, it’s safe to say that the bloom is off the rose due to the underwhelming, and risk-on, group of receivers. The receivers are the position that I have always believed serves as the glue for most draft classes when forecasting it into the dynasty format.

Your rookie draft strategy is going to largely depend on your team’s competitive position, number of draft picks you hold, and the position of those picks. It should also be noted that each dynasty coach differs in how they view the draft. I know some who exit rookie picks at all/any cost, preferring to offload the risk and, often, slow integration to production in the NFL. At the same time, many of us dynasty coaches find the NFL Draft to be the most exciting event of the upcoming season. While I count myself as part of the latter group, I do so with a very firm understanding of how risky rookie selections are while, at the same time, using my scouting ability to overlay the quality and depth of the incoming class onto my team(s) for maximum impact.

When forming my rookie draft strategy, I always start with my most recent rookie rankings and the tiers making up the first 30 selections. I never set my draft strategy until I’ve personally scouted and ranked my top 30 players. The tiers play a vital role, especially in round one.

Top 30 Players for 2023

Let’s look at my top 30 players and their respective tiers:

When devising my rookie draft strategy, I’m attempting to do two primary things:

1. Maximize my first-round impact via assessment of talent into the picks I hold

2. Identify players who provide maximum upside in the first half of round two

This is why my scouting and historical NFL production profiles are so important. Through this exercise, I’m identifying players whom I believe represent valid risk-reward selections to those who I feel are too risk-on given the draft capital required to select them. To wit, if I’m holding picks in a range where I’m uncomfortable with the player talent available for my specific team, I may seek to exit the draft pick in return for a veteran (known) asset and let another coach spin the rookie wheel of fortune, or misfortune as it can often be.

At the same time, I’m determining where each tier begins and ends to understand how the draft is stratified. Spending extra capital to get into the bottom of a tier may be worthwhile. Or, trading out of a tier with too much risk to acquire picks in a tier below, potentially into the top of the second round, may allow me to pick up multiple assets and spread my risk while still providing depth to my roster.

Positional Depth Summary

Quarterbacks

Four NFL first-round quarterbacks should be selected and all four are very different. In dynasty, all present different impact potential and all are risk-on. I don’t see any name pushing for first-round selection. This means that 2023 should be a typical year for quarterbacks, the first being selected sometime on or after 2.02, depending on team need.

Running Backs

It’s Bijan Robinson or bust if you have a dire need. Beyond Robinson, the running backs possess exceptional size and intriguing potential, especially in tiers three through five. Due to the depth of this class, there are low-capital opportunities here for running back-needy dynasty teams. I feel good holding late-first rookie selections if I have a need at the position.

Wide Receivers

It’s a weak group, there’s no way around it. That’s not to say we won’t have impact players from this class, but without clear marquee names, it’s very risk-on. Receiver-needy dynasty teams will have a choice between spinning the wheel with a rookie between picks 1.02 through 1.05, hoping for a late-first riser, or trading a pick for a veteran producer, the move I would recommend as detailed below

Tight End

I don’t generally rank tight ends highly as few fantasy producers come from the NFL first round. We do have one or two good names in this year’s draft who will garner attention. Michael Mayer is the only tight end who I expect will be selected in the second half of the first round in dynasty drafts. Generally speaking, fade the position.

2023 Tier Study

When looking at the stratification of the 2023 NFL Draft class, I see a relatively clear talent separation.

Bijan Robinson is the top player in the draft, regardless of format, and remains my only tier-one prospect. I’ll be shocked if he isn’t selected as the 1.01 in 90% of drafts. But, alas, he sits alone in a tier by himself which automatically raises the capital required to obtain the selection in trade.

At Tier 2, we find four additional players, all but one are receivers. In truth, I could also move tight end Michael Mayer into this tier, and still may, but it takes a lot for me to raise a tight end to that status. I’ll determine more about this tier during, and following the NFL Combine.

Tier-3 players take us to draft selection 1.10 with Tier 4 starting at 1.11 and lasting until selection 19 (2.07). Tier-5 players take me to overall selection 26, relatively deep for a rookie class.

Draft Strategy

Without question, if I have need at running back, Bijan Robinson is my target. I would seek trade-up scenarios given his profile but doing so ahead of the NFL Draft is a risk-on move. I am comfortable with giving up an additional first-round capital, or equivalent depth player, to secure the 1.01. Robinson is the only player I feel strongly about in this class.

The players appearing within TIer 2 all have upside with attached risk based on profile. Being that this tier is dominated by receivers who are closely ranked, if I have positional need, I would either seek to trade back to 1.05 and take the last remaining player or seek to trade out of my 1.02-1.05 selection. Another potential is in picking up multiple picks below or, securing a young productive veteran (non-rookie) in return. I do not feel strongly enough about any of 2023’s Tier 2 risk-on receivers enough to pound the table for selection.

Tier-3 players offer significant upside for the risk-capital held or spent. This is a good draft for competitive dynasty teams holding picks in the second half of rookie draft Round 1. Sean Tucker, Michael Mayer, Zay Flowers, Kendre Miller, and Zach Charbonnet all have significant NFL upside. If I could move 1.02 or 1.03 in return for two selections in Tier 3, I’d be intrigued, even if it required additional minor/depth compensation.

My Tier-4 players extend from overall pick 11 to 19. One of my favorite strategies in 1QB formats is to hold or acquire two picks in the first half of the second round. This allows me to secure a top sleeper or falling Tier 3 player such as Zay Flowers, Devon Achane, or Zach Evans while also allowing a selection of, potentially, the first quarterback off the board, which typically occurs somewhere near 2.02, 14^th-overall in a 12-team league.

Rinse and repeat in Round 3 of rookie drafts as my Tier-5 players come into focus. While I’m looking for slipping players from Round 2, 2023’s Tier-5 players are quality names with significant upside.

The NFL Combine is certain to change my rankings and tiers, as is my further scouting research. Stay tuned as I update my rankings and strategy.

Summary

In summary, I’m trading out of selections 1.02-1.05 if I have need at receiver, seeking to acquire a ‘known’ product, offloading the risk of rookie selection. With need at running back, I’m price-checking to get to 1.01 for Bijan Robinson but likely not trading up for Jahmyr Gibbs unless he falls, instead seeking to select Sean Tucker or Kendre Miller in the back half of round one. I will be watching Charbonnet’s drafted situation closely.

Given the depth of this class, I will look to acquire an additional selection in the 1.11 to 2.05 range for the opportunity to take a slipping, or upside, player plus a rookie quarterback of my choice.

As I near Round 3, I’m targeting upside players such as Roschon Johnson, Kenny McIntosh, Tyjae Spears, or, perhaps, Jalin Hyatt if I have need at receiver. Hyatt is currently trending on social media and could well be off the board before the end of the first round, a large mistake in my opinion.

I hope this gives you more understanding of how I’m looking at this year’s rookie class as I continue my research. With more film review, the NFL Combine, and the actual NFL Draft to come, things are certain to change.

Give me a follow on Twitter (@DLF_Jeff) and let me know your thoughts on this list. Be sure to check back as I adjust these ranks as this offseason progresses leading up to the draft.

As always, be happy, be well and, please, be good to each other!