Scott Smith’s UFC 280 Best Bets

One of the most anticipated fight cards of the year happens this weekend. With multiple exciting matchups, this card is headlined by two title fights and littered with other potential title contenders. With such a fan-friendly card, many bettors will be clamoring to lay some bets on these fights. Below you will find actionable plays for the best card of the year!

UFC 280 Best Bets

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Mateusz Gamrot to Win (-190, DraftKings)

Beneil Dariush has 20 fights in the UFC and was likely a win away from a title shot until an injury put those plans on hold. Dariush last fought over 500 days ago with a win over Tony Ferguson that hasn’t aged well when looking at Ferguson’s decline. Dariush is a tough, well-rounded grappler who excels at controlling fighters on the ground. Dariush isn’t the most technical striker but does so with forward pressure and power that allows him to mix his attacks well with his grappling. Dariush does have some holes in his striking defense as he leaves his chin high and available. That can get him in trouble in exchanges and leaves bad visuals in the eyes of judges.

Mateusz Gamrot comes into this fight on a roll after a closely-contested fight against upper-level contender Arman Tsarukyan. Gamrot is one of the best grapplers in the division. His ability to scramble and threaten submissions in transition is elite. Gamrot uses his cardio in conjunction with a takedown defense to wear on opponents. Gamrot has defended 90% of takedowns against him and makes it nearly impossible to control and keep him on the ground. Gamrot has a well-rounded and technical striking game from the southpaw stance that allows him to dictate the pace. His fight IQ rarely sees him take unnecessary risks in attacking his opponents.

Path to Victory: Both of these fighters have a common foe in Diego Ferreira. While Dariush was able to win a closely contested split decision, Gamrot’s performance was much more impressive as he was able to get the finish. Dariush will be dangerous should he be able to control the fight on the ground. Dariush will face a ton of adversity in doing so as he has completed only 34% of his takedowns. Gamrot projects as the better grappler with his movement and cardio. Gamrot will be the more technical striker and have the advantage in both striking defense and accuracy. Ultimately, Gamrot is the younger and fresher fighter. Dariush will be coming off an injury and a long layoff that also saw him become a new father. Gamrot is completely motivated and trains in the United States away from his family so that there are no distractions.

Prediction: Gamrot by Decision

Risk: 1.9 units on DraftKings to win 1 unit. (Playable to -200)

Parlay of the Week

Caio Barralho/Sean Brady/Petr Yan (+257, DraftKings)

Caio Barralho vs. Makhmud Muradov Fight Breakdown

Makhmud Muradov is 4-1 over his last five fights. He was most recently submitted by veteran Gerald Meerschaert. In that fight, it appeared Muradov simply did not take it seriously enough. Muradov will have the advantage on the feet, especially in his striking output. Muradov strikes with power as he looks to damage his opponents and is dangerous on the feet. He also sports a four-inch reach advantage. Muradov has defended 80% of takedowns against him thus far in the UFC. It will be imperative for that success to continue should he be successful in this fight. Muradov is dangerous and could present as a live dog early in this fight.

Barralho brings a karate-based striking game that is diverse enough to be competitive on the feet. He excels in the speed of his takedown entries. Barralho is able to shoot and re-shoot as he forces his foes against the cage and down to the mat. When the fight hits the ground, he is able to control the grappling positions in search of submissions. Barralho has shown a high fight IQ in his ability to place the fight in positions he excels in, and will look to do the same in this fight. He will look to avoid early striking danger as he times his takedowns and searches for a finish. Muradov will have the ability to win moments in this fight but Barralho should win minutes as he cruises to a decision victory.

Sean Brady vs. Belal Muhammad Fight Breakdown

Bella Muhammad has been successful in the welterweight division. More of a gatekeeper than a superstar, Muhammad brings a tireless work effort and does well at exploiting his opponent's weaknesses. Often times Muhammad has been able to outwrestle and exploit other fighters who struggle in that department. This fight does not project to go that route. Muhammad offers a solid jab as the lead in his striking game. He offers little in the way of power as he uses his striking to set up his takedowns. When he is unable to get the fight to the ground, he rarely is the fighter leading the striking dance. He is able to push the pace of grappling but has yet to face an opponent to force that strategy to change,

Sean Brady projects to be the better grappler in this fight. As mentioned above, it would be expected for large portions of this fight to take place on the feet. Brady is the better athlete and will have the power advantage on the feet. Brady will have a slight advantage in the technical striking department, in my opinion. He should be able to steal exchanges on the feet. If Muhammad does force the issue to the mat, Brady should be able to force reversals and dictate positions as he searches for the submission. Muhammad’s experience will be tough to overcome as he is a gritty fighter but Brady has the skills to overcome adversity and remain undefeated.

Petr Yan vs. Sean O’Malley Fight Breakdown

The “Suga Show” has made quite the name for himself since starring in Dana White's Contender Series. Sean O’Malley has creative striking that is packed with power and precision. O’Malley is long for the division, which allows him to be a sniper from the outside. O’Malley has yet to secure a signature victory inside the octagon and had his most recent fight end via eye poke. With controversy surrounding this step up in competition and his only real test resulting in a loss to Marlon Vera, many questions still need to be answered for O’Malley. He has often said he wants the easiest fights for the most money possible. This fight against Petr Yan does not fit that narrative. O’Malley offers a solid pace, landing nearly eight strikes per minute at a 67% accuracy clip. He averages 1.25 knockdowns per 15 minutes, which is elite. O’Malley has yet to be tested on the ground and has often been able to dictate the action in his fights. O’Malley will have quite the test in this matchup as he attempts to solve Yan's technical attack.

Petr Yan is a former champion, and some argue he should still be champion. A close fight with Aljamain Sterling has led to this match-up with O’Malley. While we absolutely know Yan is championship material, that question has yet to be answered for O’Malley. Yan is technical in his striking ability and is able to break down his opponents over time. He offers power and the ability to fight inside and out. Yan will have to be disciplined with his high guard as he defends the lengthy striking of O’Malley. Neither fighter excels in the wrestling game but Yan sports a 90% takedown defense and should have the advantage in that department. If Yan stays technically sound in his striking defense he should be able to break down O’Malley through the course of this fight. There are levels to this game and we know where Yan stands. O’Malley simply isn’t there yet.

Risk: 1 unit on DraftKings to win 2.57 units. (Playable down to +225)

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