NBA Player Prop Bets: Julius Randle, Jurassic Park Ranger
The Sunday NBA slate is understandably being overshadowed by the final two Divisional Round NFL Playoff games, but that doesn’t mean there still aren’t misprices to exploit in the prop market. My three favorite NBA player props for the Sunday slate are outlined below.
Regarding the process behind the plays, the suite of tools that 4for4 offers are second-to-none. I use the NBA Splits Tool to break down injury impacts and lineup changes and the NBA Prop Stat Explorer to look at historical data for how the player performs relative to their prop and compare it to our in-house projection. Using these alongside the Player Prop Finder to shop for the best line, 4for4 makes betting on NBA player props a stress-free and fun process. With the shameless plug (that I am not explicitly paid for!), let’s get into the props for today.
Today’s NBA Player Prop Bets (January 22, 2023)
Julius Randle Over 11.5 Rebounds (-128 at FanDuel)
Three things are working in our favor when targeting the over on Julius Randle’s rebounding prop on Sunday. The first, and perhaps the most obvious, is the absence of center Mitchell Robinson. While Robinson’s offensive production has been erratic, he’s been a constant force on the glass, leaving a rather significant void when out of the lineup. With Robinson off the floor this season, Randle has posted a 16.1% rebounding rate, the highest among Knicks starters.
It also helps that Randle has dominated on the glass himself lately. Over the last 10 games, only Domantas Sabonis (23.6) has averaged more rebounding chances per game than Randle (22.9) and no player has averaged more rebounds per game (14.2).
With all of this positive momentum heading into Sunday, a matchup with a Raptors team that continues to struggle on the boards helps even more. Randle just had a 15-rebound game against this team on January 16th and the Raptors rank dead last in the NBA in center defense while ranking 20th in defensive rebounds allowed per game (33.4).
There’s simply too much working in favor of Randle to pass up on this over, despite the slight juice.
Risk: 1.28 units on FanDuel to win 1 unit.
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