NBA Player Prop Bets: Harden Passing in Portland

Jan 19, 2023

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Defensive stats are tougher to predict, to the point some books do not even bother listing them. When there are specific matchups that stand out, though, there can be value. That is the case with two of the props today.

To help determine value in your daily prep, check out 4for4’s tools. The Player Prop Tool will show projected value on listed props and you can customize the search to your liking, the Stat Explorer shows a specific stat for a player and how it compares to that night’s line and even allows you to customize the time frame you are looking at, and the Player Prop Finder shows what the line is at for all of a player’s props at all the primary books. Do not forget the Player Prop Odds Table and Player Splits Tool as well and make sure to get involved in Discord, where staff and subscribers talk through their favorite plays. Let’s make it a profitable Thursday.

Today’s NBA Player Prop Bets (January 19, 2023)

James Harden Over 10.5 Assists (-105 at BetMGM)

While James Harden has been consistently producing this year, betting his unders in a nightlife spot has become a punch line but also profitable. Now is a time to play back against that in a much better matchup.

Especially with Tyrese Maxey staying on the bench and De’Anthony Melton in the starting lineup, the playmaking on the Sixers is funneled between Harden and Joel Embiid—it shows in Harden’s consistency at high volume. In the last two weeks, Harden is averaging 11.6 assists on 18.6 potential assists and has gone over this prop in six of those eight games. Harden uses his size most to get where he wants to go for scoring or to set others up and the matchup lends to Harden being able to do that.

The Sixers are in Portland, who have a small backcourt with Damian Lillard and Anfernee Simons. Josh Hart would be a better defensive option against Harden but the size in the frontcourt for Philadelphia makes it hard to find where to hide Simons or Lillard. Possibly on PJ Tucker but that would likely result in getting torched on the boards. The Blazers are allowing the second-most assists to point guards over the last two weeks and the fifth-most in the last month. Even if his game was slowed by presumably an affinity for the nightlife, Harden had nine assists on 19 potential assists, so the potential for better tonight is clear.

Risk: 1.05 units on BetMGM to win 1 unit. (Playable to -120)