NBA Player Prop Bets: Finding Value

Friday Night brings us just one incredible matchup.

The No. 2-seeded Memphis has found a worthy adversary in No. 7-seeded Minnesota, with the Grizzlies holding a tenuous 3-2 lead. Tonight, we travel to Minnesota for a Game 6, as the Timberwolves face a "win-or-go-home" ultimatum. The opening round battle between Memphis and Minnesota has been the most exciting series of the NBA playoffs. Both teams have won on the road, Memphis overcame a 26-point deficit to win Game 3, and Game 5 was a historic battle that ended with an acrobatic Ja Morant layup with one second remaining.

It's challenging to find NBA prop value with just one game on the slate, but here are my favorite three picks for tonight, in a game I expect to be a low-scoring and close battle.

Our NBA Player Prop Tool and NBA Prop Stat Explorer Tool are critical resources to help identify key spots for betting advantages. Of course, monitor our Discord activity for key last-minute updates. Let's dive into three props for tonight.

*Lines accurate at the time of publication.

DraftKings Player Prop Bets (April 29th, 2022)

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Desmond Bane (MEM) Over 28.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-115)

Desmond Bane has been the most efficient scorer for the Grizzlies in this series, averaging 23.5 points per game (PPG) and making an average of 4.4 three-pointers per game. The consistent weakness of the Minnesota defense has been from beyond the arc, allowing the most threes per game (4.28) to opposing shooting guards. The Timberwolves' aggressive defense provides a plethora of opportunities from beyond the arc, and they simply haven't created a plan to stop Bane.

Bane has beaten this number in each of the last three games and is shooting a robust 47.6% from three on the road. He is averaging 7.7 rebounds and assists on the road, which should equate to just 22 points to crest this total tonight. I project that the Timberwolves will continue to prioritize limiting Ja Morant, and will live or die with Bane's production.

Risk: 1.15 Units on DraftKings to win 1 Unit. (Playable to -120)

Dillon Brooks (MEM) Under 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-115)

While Desmond Bane has found consistency against Minnesota, teammate Dillon Brooks has not. Brooks is a less explosive, more stationary scorer than Bane, and is overly reliant on jump shot efficiency. He has averaged just 2.4 rebounds and 2.4 assists per game in this series, meaning he needs a solid scoring night to crest this total.

In Game 1, Brooks scored 24 points as a direct result of three three-pointers and seven free throws. He attempted 10 free throws in that opening game, but has only seen 11 total free throws in the four subsequent games. Excluding that first game, Brooks is also only shooting 5-of-24 (20.8%) from deep against the Timberwolves. In a game of this magnitude, on the road, coming off a brutal 1-10 shooting night from deep, I'm backing Brooks to again fall short of this total.

Risk: 1.15 Units on DraftKings to win 1 Unit. (Playable to -120)

BetMGM Player Prop Bets (April 29th, 2022)

Ja Morant (MEM) Under 27.5 Points (-115)

I am a huge fan of Ja Morant, but his impact on this series has been much greater in the non-scoring categories. Morant is averaging just 22.4 PPG in the postseason, and 21 PPG in his last 10 contests. Morant has admitted he is still not 100% recovered from his left knee injury, which greatly affects his creativity on offense. Morant has still delivered highlight-level dunks, but his 40.2% field goal rate and 26.7% efficiency from three-point range still loom large.

Minnesota is very vulnerable from beyond the arc, but Morant has been more effective at setting up his teammates from deep than scoring himself. He has one or fewer made three-pointers in four of the five games this series. Morant's assists are up from 6.7 per game in the regular season to 10.4 per game in this series. In a road game at Minnesota, with their season on the line, I expect Timberwolves head coach Chris Finch to prioritize limiting Morant yet again.

Coming off a 30-point performance in Game 5, we are getting a few extra points of value. Add in the blowout risk, and I'm backing Morant to again fall under his point total.

Risk: 1.15 Units on BetMGM to win 1 Unit. (Playable to -110)

For the most up-to-date picks check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord. This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks (and those from the rest of the betting staff) on the year. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.

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