NBA Player Prop Bets: Brook Beasts in Atlanta

In the prop market, we must balance the player and who they are versus the matchup and what the opponent allows. The props today lean more toward the matchup category with hints of players being able to take advantage of what the opponent chooses to allow. When a matchup shows an extreme edge, there should be latitude in how a player or their role is viewed to see different possibilities if presented—that's what is happening within these plays.

Check out all the tools 4for4 has to aid in your daily prep. The Player Prop Tool will show projected value on listed props and you can customize the search to your liking, the Stat Explorer shows a specific stat for a player and how it compares to that night’s line and even allows you to customize the time frame you are looking at, and the Player Prop Finder shows what the line is at for all of a player’s props at all the primary books. Do not forget the Player Prop Odds Table and Player Splits Tool as well and make sure to get involved in Discord, where staff and subscribers talk through their favorite plays. Let’s make it a profitable Wednesday.

Today’s NBA Player Prop Bets (January 11, 2023)

Brook Lopez Over 21.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-110 at BetMGM)

When there are matchups to exploit in the betting world it is best to not be shy and take advantage of every chance given. That is the case with Brook Lopez tonight.

Since Clint Capela exited the lineup, centers have feasted on Atlanta. In 10 such games, starting centers are averaging 32.2 points + rebounds + assists (PRA), and the last six have gone for double-doubles. Only one starting center has not cleared this PRA number… but his backup did and he also recorded a double-double. In the last two weeks, the Hawks are allowing the fifth-most points to centers and the most rebounds. Even with two days off, this is Atlanta’s first game home after a four-game west coast trip, so some fatigue is to be expected.

In the last two weeks, Lopez has been averaging 22.3 PRA and has gone over this number in three of his last four. While he does not have the traditional role with Giannis Antetokounmpo next to him, Lopez does fit the body type of the centers who have been giving Onyeka Okongwu the most fits: Bigger-bodied guys who operate from the post offensively and rely on physicality for their rebounds. The number may be lower than the other center production lately as well because in the first three matchups Lopez averaged 19.3 PRA, but those were all with Capela in the lineup. Considering the offensive issues the Bucks have had, not taking advantage of the matchup would be foolish and they are smart enough to know that.

Risk: 1.1 units on BetMGM to win 1 unit. (Playable to -120)

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Brook Lopez To Record A Double-Double (+470 at DraftKings)

What works against Lopez here is his deference to Antetokounmpo but considering the quality of the matchup and that Lopez does have three double-doubles with Antetokounmpo in the lineup this season shows it can happen. The Hawks allow plenty of rebounds to power forwards and centers. Also, the Hawks are shooting the third-fewest corner threes in the NBA in the last two weeks. Those are attempts that by defensive design Lopez has to close out on and take him out of rebounding position. The lack of those allows him to stay closer to the basket and rebounding chances. The three other double-doubles were against teams that were not shooting many corner threes at the time.

Risk: .5 units on DraftKings to win 2.35 units

Ja Morant Under 13.5 Rebounds + Assists (+102 at FanDuel)

Ja Morant is in a smash spot looking at the opponent, so you might be wondering why any under would be a play. San Antonio's scheme is to blame.

The Spurs have allowed the fifth-fewest assists to point guards over the last two weeks but also the fifth-most points to the position. It is not denying them the ball but not overly helping the point guard that allows this to happen. San Antonio wants to avoid the kick outs to wide-open shooters and they do not have that great of a defensive personnel to make decisions in rotation, so why force them to rotate a ton?

In the last nine games Morant played, he is averaging 12.8 rebounds + assists (RA) and went under this prop six times, including his last four. With their secondary playmaker—Desmond Bane—back Morant has not needed to create everything in the offense and is allowed to work off the ball more. While his scoring numbers will stay high, that does bring down his chances for assists. On the glass, with Jaren Jackson Jr. emerging and Bane returning, Morant’s rebounding chances have gone down from 12.3 when Bane was out to 8.5 since he has returned.

With the matchup and other teammates stepping up as of late, getting plus-money on this prop screams value.

Risk: 1 unit on FanDuel to win 1.02 units. (Playable to -110)

Keegan Murray Over 2.5 Three-Pointers (+120 at DraftKings)

The Houston Rockets have clearly decided as part of their defensive scheme that they are going to allow teams to shoot as many above-the-break threes as they want and Keegan Murray is ready to oblige.

In the last two weeks, the Rockets are allowing the most above-the-break-three attempts by a considerable margin. They are in the lower half of the league in preventing corner threes as well. The philosophy is to not let opponents get to the basket, they are allowing the fourth-fewest shots at the rim and playing the variance game behind the arc. So looking for a Kings player to go over their three-point prop makes sense. Houston is fifth in the last two weeks in allowing assists to point guards but not near the top in points allowed, so De’Aaron Fox should be looking to drive and kick to an open shooter. The Rockets are also allowing the most points and second-most threes to small forwards over the last two weeks. This brings Murray into the fold.

Murray has gone over this prop in three of his last four games and is shooting 54.1% from distance in the last two weeks. He has surpassed this number in 11-of-19 games since the start of December. Considering the extra volume that should be headed his way due to the matchup, there is value on Murray to eclipse this number.

Risk: 1 unit on DraftKings to win 1.2 units. (Playable to -110)

Keegan Murray Over 3.5 Three-Pointers (+310 at FanDuel)

Murray has gone over this prop in the last two games and with the extra volume and how well he has been shooting as of late, this number is squarely in play.

Risk: .5 units on FanDuel to win 1.55 units.

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