NFL Week 9: Spread Bets
Week 8 Recap: Well, if you could somehow figure out which two plays of mine each week I’ll hit and follow those, then fade the one I’ll get wrong, you’ll be filthy, stinking rich by the end of this NFL season. For the seventh time this season, I went 2-1 ATS with my spread picks. The Niners looked shaky early, but pulled away for a win and a cover as a 3.5-point road favorite against the Bears, while the Steelers upset the Browns as a 3.5-point dog. My lone loss was Washington, which put up a fight in Denver before falling to the Broncos, 17-10.
For the season, I am 15-9 ATS for a 62.50% winning percentage and am +6.0 units. Dan Rivera does a great job tracking everyone’s picks at 4for4 and it’s interesting to see I'm 8-3 ATS when I play a favorite, while I’m 7-6 ATS when playing an underdog. Perhaps we have the answer to which picks to follow and which one to fade this week.
Week 9 NFL Spread Bets
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New England Patriots at Carolina Panthers
Panthers QB Sam Darnold suffered a concussion in the fourth quarter of Carolina’s Week 8 win over the Falcons and did not return. Coach Matt Rhule said Darnold was “extremely limited” in practice on Wednesday and ESPN’s David Newton expects Phillip Walker to start Sunday against New England.
Either way, I like the Patriots. If Darnold starts, then he should be seeing ghosts again by the second quarter. If Walker starts, then the Patriots should have 19 sacks and 14 turnovers forced by the third quarter.
“But what about Christian McCaffrey! The Panthers are a different team with CMC!”
True, but McCaffrey was also “pretty limited” in practice on Wednesday, so it appears he might need another week to recover from the hamstring injury he suffered in Week 3. Without McCaffrey, the Panthers are 1-4 this season and average just 291.4 yards per game (compared to a 3-0 record and 390.3 yards per game when he’s on the field).
The Panthers’ defense is stout but opponents have been able to run the ball against Carolina this season. Damien Harris has gone four straight games with a rushing touchdown and ranks sixth in the NFL with 517 rushing yards. If the Patriots can get their ground game going on Sunday like they did last week in L.A., they’ll control this game from the outset. New England is also 3-0 on the road this season.
Pick: 1.10 units on Patriots -3.5 at FanDuel to win 1.0 units.
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
Taysom Hill returned to practice on Wednesday and while Trevor Siemian could start for the Saints on Sunday after leading them to an upset win last weekend versus the Bucs, my money is on Hill facing the Falcons.
Remember, Sean Payton had a decision to make in Week 13 last year when Drew Brees was out with injury. In somewhat of a surprising move at the time, Payton named Hill the starter over Jameis Winston when many thought the latter would make his starting debut with his then-new team.
The Saints' opponent that week? The Falcons. Hill completed 18-of-23 passes for 233 yards, rushing 10 times for 51 yards and two touchdowns in the Saints’ 24-9 victory. He faced Atlanta again a few weeks later and completed 27-of-37 passes for 232 yards and two touchdowns, adding 14 carries for 83 yards in a Saints’ 21-16 victory. Hill owns these fools and the Saints have owned divisional opponents, posting a 9-3 ATS record while winning 11 of their last 12 games against NFC South opponents.
The Falcons, meanwhile, have lost six straight against divisional opponents, including last week’s pathetic 19-13 defeat to the McCaffrey-less Panthers. While their defense has been an issue since 1998, Arthur Smith’s offense has left a lot to be desired. The Falcons are averaging just 21.1 points per game this season and while losing Calvin Ridley (personal) hurts, the fact Kyle Pitts finished with only two catches last week is flabbergasting.
Smith is a good play caller and he certainly has gotten the most out of players like Cordarrelle Patterson. That said, Matt Ryan has had problems converting in the red zone since the team’s Super Bowl collapse to New England in 2017 and things won’t get any easier on Sunday when he faces Cam Jordan, who has sacked him a whopping 21 times in his career.
Pick: 1.10 units on Saints -6 at FanDuel to win 1.0 units.
Los Angeles Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles
Let me get this straight: The Eagles hammer a winless Lions team and now they’re only a 1.5-point dog to the Chargers? I realize Philly is at the Linc, but this line is way too short.
The Chargers had issues with the Patriots and Ravens because both of those teams can run the ball. Los Angeles’ run defense is the worst in the league and both New England and Baltimore seized control of the game early in their wins over the Chargers the past few weeks.
The Eagles? Not so much. Sure, Jalen Hurts will gain yards on the ground when the Eagles are trailing in the fourth quarter and he’s racking up garbage time numbers, but will Philly commit to its running game early? I doubt it, since the Eagles’ front office and analytical team apparently don’t believe in running the ball.
Justin Herbert needs to do a better job of protecting the ball than he did in the Chargers’ losses to the Patriots and Ravens. If he does, then the Bolts should cruise on Sunday.
Pick: 1.10 units on Chargers -1.5 at FanDuel to win 1.0 units.
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