Game Flowbotics: Week 12 Picks Against the Spread
Supposedly, chickens will run around with their heads cut off, but will turkeys do the same? I don’t know, and I don’t want to know. Maybe Beyond Meat or Field Roast can sponsor this column next year so I don’t have to stretch for fowl-decapitation similes, but until the fake meat money rolls in, you’re stuck with me gobblersplaining that American NFL fans are typically very busy during the week of Thanksgiving, myself included. On that note, I’m going to (hopefully) keep the forthcoming blurbs for my Week 12 against the spread and over/under picks briefer than in other weeks. As usual, my analysis is based on the Game Flowbotics page linked below, which gathers pace and efficiency data from Football Outsiders and color-codes the matchups between teams in different phases of the game. Enjoy the extra games and food on Thursday, and any Week 12 betting profits will be gravy. (Sorry, I had to.)
Accountability
Last week, I went 3-3 with my picks for a gain of 0.25 units. Year to date, my record is 48-39-1 (55.2%) and I’m up 6.121 units overall. For what it’s worth, the best bets went 3-1, and the rapid-fire picks went 0-2. Thankfully, one of those rapid-fire losers was only for half a unit, which kept the week profitable (just barely).
I don’t have a lot to say about the three losses. I had a bad read on the defenses and pace with my over bet for Packers-Vikings, but at least I picked the side correctly. Bengals-Raiders missed the over as well, with Las Vegas perhaps finally exposed as a team in decline after multiple off-the-field hardships. Lastly, the vig on the Cowboys’ team total had me nervous about betting the over as I was writing it up—which is why I only made it a half-unit play—but that game’s low-scoring result is still surprising to me. It’s probably best if we chalk up the dud from Dallas to all the personnel missing from their offense, but perhaps it’s time to start fading them in general when playing outdoors on the road. I also may simply need to respect Kansas City’s defense more now that they’ve shut down or slowed a variety of quality offenses in recent weeks.
Week 12 Game Flowbotics
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Here’s this week’s worksheet:
For background on Game Flowbotics and information on how to use the spreadsheet, check out my first article in this series and the Game Flowbotics primer.
As always, this tool is not a model. It isn’t going to tell us who to pick. Instead, it’s a visualization resource to help us gather information and compare opposing forces in NFL matchups. It’s up to us to translate those considerations into picks on our own. With that in mind, let’s get to my favorite angles this week.
Week 12 Best Bets
Las Vegas Raiders at Dallas Cowboys
Coming out of last week, Ezekiel Elliott’s availability on Thanksgiving was in question, but he was a full participant in practice on Tuesday and left tackle Tyron Smith is also trending toward playing. It’s a great sign for Dallas as they head into this matchup against Las Vegas, who have allowed an average of 160.7 total yards per game to running backs over the past three weeks. If the Cowboys can keep that rushing success trend going, it will open things up for their B-team of receivers behind the injured CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper. But let’s face it, when the B-team is Michael Gallup, Cedrick Wilson, Dalton Schultz, Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard, Dallas should have little trouble putting up points against the 22nd-ranked Las Vegas defense.
On the other side of the matchup, the Raiders’ offense is off the rails, failing to top 16 points in each of the three weeks since their bye. They’ll square off against a Cowboys defense ranked fourth in DVOA and third in Weighted DVOA. Half-point hook be damned, I’m laying 7.5 with Dallas.
Pick: DAL (-7) -115 at PointsBet, risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit.
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos
The only silver lining for the Broncos in this matchup is their running game, but only because they’re facing the Chargers’ league-worst rushing defense. Denver only ranks 17th in rushing offense (-7.9%), only slightly better than league average (-9.0%). Otherwise, Los Angeles is better than Denver overall (14th vs. 20th), on offense (third vs. 15th) and on defense (21st vs. 26th). The Chargers' third-ranked offense and sixth-ranked passing offense are the keys here. If they can run up the score enough against the Broncos’ 26th-ranked defense, Denver’s offensive advantage in the running game will become less viable due to game script.
I’m a little nervous about laying points outside on the road against a team coming off a bye, but it’s not as if the Chargers are ever truly at home (for evidence, rewatch last week’s game where black and yellow colors dominated their “home” crowd), and the forecast for Denver on Sunday is downright pleasant. Aside from elevation effects, the conditions of this game should be fine for Justin Herbert and company, and they only need to win by a field goal.
Pick: LAC (-2.5) -115 at PointsBet, risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit.
Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers
I might be tempting fate by yo-yo-ing between unders and overs with this Minnesota team, but I see ways for both these offenses to find success when I look at their matchup on the Game Flowbotics page. The 49ers’ eighth-ranked rushing offense should go on a rampage against this Vikings defense ranked 27th in rushing defense DVOA and dead last in adjusted line yards. On the flip side, Minnesota’s second-ranked passing offense—headlined by Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson, and Adam Thielen—should take flight against San Francisco’s 22nd-ranked pass defense. Neither team wants to play especially fast, so I was tempted to stick to my guns with another Minnesota under, but I expect enough offensive success (with big-play potential on both sides) for this to go over.
Pick: Over (48) -110 at FanDuel/PointsBet/Caesars, risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
The DVOA metrics for these teams are eerily similar, with Baltimore rating slightly better. Typically, I want to take the points when two teams of similar efficiency face-off, but Baker Mayfield’s recent play changes the calculus. We’re at the point where I’m actively trying to bet against him weekly, similar to how I faded a hobbled Carson Wentz in the early weeks of this season. Cleveland can try to cover up for Mayfield with their top-ranked rushing offense, but Baltimore’s defense ranks sixth against the run and first in adjusted line yards, so it won’t be easy. The hook scares me, but not as much as picking this current version of Mayfield in primetime.
Pick: BAL (-3.5) -110 at PointsBet/Caesars, risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit.
Week 12 Rapid-Fire Picks
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions
I wanted to buy into the noise about Matt Nagy already knowing this is his last game with the Bears and bet the Lions getting points, but I can’t do it. Even if the rumors are true, I want to believe the Bears players have too much pride to lay down in a divisional game against one of the league’s worst teams on a national stage. In particular, Andy Dalton has a lot to play for in what might be his final start this season. And what better place to showcase his abilities than against Detroit’s 28th-ranked passing defense and 30th-ranked pass rush. Ultimately, this is more of a bet against the Lions than it is a bet on the Bears, though, so I’m only risking half a unit.
Pick: CHI (-3) -110 at DraftKings/FanDuel/PointsBet/Caesars, risk 0.55 units to win 0.5 units.
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants
Speaking of coaching changes, how much of a difference will Jason Garrett’s departure make for the Giants? Sure, it matters, but New York still has two other major problems—Daniel Jones and their 30th-ranked rushing defense. Even if Jones can elevate his play now that Garrett is gone, the Giants' rushing defense is a huge liability against Philadelphia’s third-ranked running game. Overall, the Eagles aren’t a great team, but they’re pretty good (12th in DVOA, trending up in Weighted DVOA), and their strength should shine in this matchup. I’m sprinkling a little on them here, assuming they can take care of business on the road.
Pick: PHI (-3.5) -105 at DraftKings, risk 0.525 units to win 0.5 units.
Good luck, everyone!
Please follow @GameFlowbotics on Twitter to get each week’s Game Flowbotics spreadsheet as soon as it’s available, and feel free to contact me there or @gregsauce to discuss the spreadsheet or my picks. For the most up-to-date picks subscribe to 4for4’s Discord. This sheet, from Dan Rivera, tracks all my betting picks (and those from the rest of the betting staff). Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.
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