Monday Night DFS Single Game Breakdown: Ravens at Raiders

Sep 13, 2021
Monday Night DFS Single Game Breakdown: Ravens at Raiders

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Below is a breakdown of single-game DFS contests on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Week 1 Monday Night Football matchup. Constructing single-game lineups requires some imagination, especially for large-field tournament purposes. We want to create a lineup that reflects a certain kind of game script, choosing players who would thrive—or at least have the chance to thrive—if their teams got out to a lead or were left chasing points in the second half. There’s also the neutral script that doesn't tend to inflate opportunity for any one player or team. Understanding the likelihood of each scenario and piecing together a roster that would score a bunch of points in such a scenario is key to success in these single-game contests.

Remember: For the captain spot on DraftKings, the price (and fantasy points awarded) are multiplied by 1.5. On FanDuel, the prices are the same throughout, but the MVP slot receives 1.5 times the fantasy point value of the other roster spots.

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More Single-Game Breakdowns: Yahoo!

Vegas Spread And Total

The Ravens are four-point road favorites in a game with a 50 point projected game total.

Potential Game Flow Scenarios

Here’s a brief rundown of which players would likely benefit the most from various game flow scenarios.

Close, low-scoring game

Close, high-scoring game

Blowout for home team

Blowout for away team

Cheap Stacking Options

There are going to be obvious stacking plays in every showdown slate. Quarterbacks with their WR1 and/or TE and/or WR2 or a running back with their defense, for example. Below are some cheap, volatile stacking options that could serve us well in large-field tournaments.

QB Derek Carr ($9,800) / WR Hunter Renfrow ($2,800)

Renfrow probably isn't a threat to absolutely smash as he didn't have any 100-yard games last season. However, he will be involved. In 2020, he averaged roughly four targets and forty receiving yards per game. That was with the Raiders finding top options in Nelson Agholor and Darren Waller. Agholor left in free agency and starters Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards are mostly unproven. It's certainly possible Renfrow gets leaned on a bit more here.

QB Lamar Jackson ($12,400) / Latavius Murray ($6,200), Ty'Son Williams ($6,800)

Playing on the road last year, the Ravens had the highest running play percentage and highest time of possession in the NFL. While most quarterbacks would be expected to have a negative correlation with their backfield, Lamar correlates quite well. The Raiders' defense allowed the 10th-most rushing attempts and rushing yards last season, although, there was a considerable difference between road and home games. At home they allowed the 11th-fewest rushing yards but on the road, they allowed the fifth-most. I suspect that has more to with game script than anything else and they are liable to get gashed.

Low-Priced Volatile Plays

Below are players near the bottom of the pricing pool in this single game contest who could break the slate or deliver close to nothing for DFS players. They’re best used in tournaments, where we strive for differentiation.

Kenyan Drake ($7,200)

In a potential shootout, there are too many scoring opportunities for it to matter if your cheap play hits. The players that were priced higher likely still match that production. In a slower-paced, lower-scoring environment every touchdown matters. It is critical to nail these cheaper plays considering both of these teams will likely like to slow the game down.

It's uncertain how the team will handle their backfield rotation but we know how they'd like to play. When playing at home last year, the Raiders had the fourth-highest time of possession and the seventh most rushing attempts. They also scored 42% of their touchdowns on the ground (ninth highest). There's a scenario where the touches are split and Drake vultures a touchdown.

Josh Oliver ($200)

With Nick Boyle being placed on IR, there's opportunity for a tight end to emerge behind Mark Andrews. Boyle wasn't a big part of the offense but he profiles as more of a blocker anyway. That said, he was able to catch two touchdowns last year and in 2019. Oliver is 6'5, 250 lbs and has a 71st percentile SPARQ score. There's potential for him to be more involved as a mismatch weapon.

Devin Duvernay ($2,600) , James Proche ($200)

In the role Duvernay will play, Willie Snead received at least four targets in six out of 13 games. He also received seven targets in three of those games. Proche isn't a starter but he was labeled the Ravens' "most impressive receiver" in training camp. It will be interesting to see if the team finds a way to get him involved. Both players are expected to get returner opportunities as well.

Captain/MVP Picks

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