Week 8 NFL Betting Picks: Player Props
Week 7 Recap: What could have been. Week 7 looked so promising and I thought it was going to be a repeat of Week 3 where we nearly swept the board (12-2). It turned out the gambling gods weren’t ready to gift us another glorious, money-making bonanza as almost every close call went the other way. I had a feeling we could be in for a frustrating weekend when Evan Engram busted our under on the last play and Boston Scott fell one reception short of hitting his over on Thursday Night. It only got more frustrating Sunday… D'Andre Swift’s line was 23.5 receiving yards. He had 23 yards prior to his last reception. On his last reception, he caught the ball two yards upfield and got knocked backward. Rather than going down and being rewarded forward progress, he tried to stay up and was knocked back again. Instead of hitting the over and finishing with 25 receiving yards, he wound up with 21. Tyreek Hill saw 10 targets and turned that into just 6/55/1, finishing five yards short of the 59.5-yard prop. Without the Chiefs scoring two defensive and special team’s touchdowns this probably hits. James Robinson played on 90% of the snaps and saw six targets without pass-catching specialist Chris Thompson. He turned that into just 18 receiving yards, falling two yards short of hitting the over on his 19.5 receiving yard prop. DK Metcalf did very little all game but still would have hit his prop if David Moore wasn’t called for a penalty on Metcalf’s long touchdown in overtime. I would love to include the old saying “I’m not mad, I’m just disappointed” but to be honest, that’s not true. Losing multiple close calls was upsetting and swung our week from being nearly up 10 units to only being up one on the week. That’s right, despite the gambling gods smiting us we still finished ahead with +1.06 units.
I’ll say it pretty much every week but if you aren’t already in the Discord chat you are missing out on a lot of closing line value as well as all my plays on island games. Every Thursday and Friday, I post any opening lines that jump out to me I think our subscribers should bet as soon as possible because they will likely move. Last week, a bunch of subscribers got on Jamaal Williams props as soon as Aaron Jones was likely going to be out. Both his rushing and receiving props hit in the early second quarter. I already posted eight plays in the Discord for this week so the column might be a bit light. On to Week 8…
Week 8 DraftKings Player Prop Bets
Zach Pascal Under 3.5 Receptions (+118)
This line is soaked in recency bias. Pascal posted his only game with four receptions the last time the Colts played (Week 6) but has actually gone under this number in every other contest. We also need to remember that in the Colts' Week 6 game against the Bengals, they fell behind by multiple scores and clawed their way back through the air. Pascal’s game-by-game reception totals: 2, 3, 3, 3, 2, and 4. We have him projected for 2.8 receptions in this spot so getting plus money on the under here is great value.
Risk: 1 unit to win 1.18 units
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