Monkey Knife Fight Plays: Week 4

Oct 02, 2020

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Week 3 Recap: We hit on eight of 10 top recommended plays last week. If you were able to grab one of those plays you were off to a great start towards more than doubling your money.

For those reading this column for the first time, we scrape Monkey Knife Fight’s contests against our projections. I'll go through 10 plays we feel confident in exceeding (More Than) or failing to reach (Less Than) MKF's projections by the percent likelihood we give the outcome. The percentage you see in parentheses next to each player's name is the chance we believe the More Than or Less Than hits, according to our projections.

Most of our recommendations will be to side with the Less Than on MKF, as they know the majority of fantasy players like to root for more of everything—more points, more yards, more receptions, etc.—and set their numbers higher than a normal median projection. Be sure to check out our Discord server and the #mkf channel where I’ll post the full list of how our projections stack up against those of Monkey Knife Fight.

Editor's Note: Open a new MKF account and deposit at least $10 to get a free 4for4 subscription of your choice.

Before we dive in, a quick More or Less refresher:

More or Less - You will be drafting your team by choosing More or Less for a group of player statistics presented. You will be squaring off with your own predictions. Choose the coinciding number of tiers correctly to win the prize shown prior to entry.

Top Week 4 MKF More or Less Plays

Isaiah Ford, WR – Dolphins (79.9%)

MKF Projection: 4.5 receptions
4for4 Projection: 3.1 receptions

Ford played a big role against the Bills in Week 2, catching seven receptions, but he has caught only two combed passes in his other two games this season. The explosion against the Bills makes sense in hindsight with how they have been susceptible to slot receivers. Jamison Crowder went for 7/115/1 in Week 1 and Cooper Kupp went for 9/107/1 in Week 3. Even though Seattle’s secondary is nothing to be scared of, Ford is fourth on the team in overall target share, but fifth when you don't count the game against Buffalo.

Tyler Higbee, TE – Rams (73%)

MKF Projection: 4.5 receptions
4for4 Projection: 3.5 receptions

Higbee’s explosion at the end of 2019 is still lingering in everyone’s subconscious, including those at Monkey Knife Fight. Higbee and Gerald Everett are now in a full-on timeshare. Last week saw Higbee run 14 routes to Everett's 12. With similar usage likely against the Giants, it would take an incredibly efficient day for him to rack up five receptions on 14 routes run, and I think there's a good chance he doesn't even see five targets (targets per game: 4, 5, 2).

Darius Slayton, WR – Giants (69.6%)

MKF Projection: 4.5 receptions
4for4 Projection: 3.7 receptions

The Giants have been an absolute trainwreck this season and are now installed as 13-point underdogs versus the Rams. I’d normally be inclined to expect a big game from Slayton with a lack of target competition, but he will likely face Jalen Ramsey on the outside. He has caught just three passes in each of the past two games, and given the tough matchup, it's more than fair to expect him to wind up in the same range. It could be a big week from Golden Tate in terms of target share, too, as he draws an easier matchup.

Zach Ertz, TE – Eagles (57.2%)

MKF Projection: 56 receiving yards
4for4 Projection: 71.7 receiving yards

Ertz seems to always be the last man standing on the Eagles and winds up seeing a massive workload. History will likely repeat itself here. With Dallas Goedert out, Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson sidelined, and rookie WR Jalen Reagor on IR, Ertz’s competition is some combination of Greg Ward, John Hightower, Deontay Burnett, Quez Watkins, and Travis Fulgham. He could have a big game as Wentz's primary weapon.

DK Metcalf, WR – Seahawks (64.8%)

MKF Projection: 73 receiving yards
4for4 Projection: 105 receiving yards

I totally get that 105 receiving yards seems like an aggressive projection but he has hit 95, 92, and 110 yards in consecutive games this season. With the Seahawks letting Russell Wilson cook and a narrow target tree in Seattle, Metcalf should continue to crush. He has taken a step forward in his second season, and until the market catches up, we should continue to take advantage of it. Not to mention he has a great matchup against a Dolphins defense ranked 30th in passing success rate allowed and 26th in explosive pass rate allowed.

Robert Woods, WR – Rams (68.3% and 64.7%)

MKF Projection: 5.5 receptions and 74 receiving yards
4for4 Projections: 4.8 receptions and 65.5 receiving yards

Playing the Less Than on Robert Woods’s receiving totals is the way to go this week. Week 1 was the only game he has gone over either of these totals and he now draws a tough matchup versus James Bradberry. Cooper Kupp’s matchup is much easier and I expect the Rams' passing game to funnel through him, with a light mix of Robert Woods.

Austin Ekeler, RB – Chargers (52%)

MKF Projection: 4.5 receptions
4for4 Projection: 4.8 receptions

With Justin Herbert at quarterback, Austin Ekeler has 15 targets and 11 receptions, good for a 19% target share. His outlook is also marginally boosted by Mike Williams likely missing this week’s game. Ekeler has a tough matchup on the ground but Tampa Bay has allowed the third-most receptions to opposing running backs (24) through three weeks.

Dalvin Cook, RB – Vikings (54.8%)

MKF Projection: 80 rushing yards
4for4 Projection: 97 rushing yards

Cook draws a juicy matchup against a Texans defense that’s been rinsed for 502 rushing yards on 86 carries (5.83 yards per carry) by opposing running backs. The Vikings figure to lean on Cook in this great matchup. He has a great shot at clearing 100 yards.

Darrell Henderson, RB Rams (51%)

MKF Projection: 68 rushing yards
4for4 Projection: 76.2 rushing yards

I expect our projections to slightly increase with the announcement that RB Cam Akers has already been announced out. Head coach Sean McVay already noted Henderson will remain the lead back over Malcolm Brown. He figures to have a sizeable workload against a defense that’s allowed 141, 135, and 93 rushing yards to kick off the season. Henderson also figures to see ample game script as the Rams are 13-point favorites.

Thanks for reading. If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to me on twitter @ConnorAllenNFL or on Discord.

Editor's Note: The More or Less plays and projections were available at the time of this article being published. Please refer to MKF for the most up-to-date offerings.