Conference Championship NFL Betting Picks: Player Props
Divisional Round Recap: The Divisional Round wound up being profitable but it could have been so much more. Heading into the week, we had solid closing line value on Devin Singletary's rushing yards at over 38.5. It closed at most books around 44.5. As we have learned, closing line value is important but it doesn't feed the family. Singletary had operated as the lead back without Zack Moss and I thought we caught the books sleeping. I couldn’t have been more wrong. Bills OC Brian Daboll did the unthinkable last week, with just one designed running back carry in the first half. I legitimately didn’t think it was possible for an NFL team to run the ball with their running back just once in a half but it happened. I’m not going to argue against the strategy of going pass-heavy—it’s probably optimal—it just seemed like an approach that was a couple of years away. Anywho, Singletary wound up with seven carries for 25 yards and busted our two-unit play on the over. Despite that, we went 5-3 for +0.7 units on the week. This week is relatively thin on plays but there are still some lines we can take advantage of. Due to there only being two games, I posted the majority of these on Discord at a better number. Getting the best of the number is important and making sure our subscribers are able to capitalize on that is something that will be a key focus of 4for4’s betting strategy in 2021.
Conference Championship DraftKings Player Prop Bets
Chris Godwin Over 5.5 Receptions (-105) and 63.5 Receiving Yards (-134)
*Recommended on Discord at O5.5 (+118) and O63.5 (-124)
Sorting through the Tampa Bay target tree is usually pretty messy. With Antonio Brown out, we are given a little more clarity. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are likely the focal points of the passing game with Rob Gronkowski, Cameron Brate, Scott Miller and Tyler Johnson all in ancillary roles.
Prior to Brown’s arrival in Tampa Bay, Godwin played in four games:
- Week 1: 6/79 on 7 targets, 94% snap share
- Week 3: 5/64 on 6 targets, 81% snap share (non-contact hamstring injury, left the game early)
- Week 6: 5/48 on 7 targets, 61% snap share (returning from injury)
- Week 7: 9/88 on 9 targets, 82% snap share (fractured index finger, left the game early)
Despite only playing a full complement of snaps in one game during this span, Godwin exceeded 63.5 receiving yards in 3-of-4 games and 5.5 receptions in 2-of-4 games. He saw no fewer than six targets in a game.
Looking more specifically at this matchup, Mike Evans will be covered by some combination of Jaire Alexander and Kevin King on the outside—both tough matchups. The last time around, Rob Gronkowski torched the Packers for 5/78/1 over the middle. As of late, Gronkowski has been kept in as a blocker. In my mind, this means Godwin could see a healthy target share and has double-digit target upside running the majority of his routes from the slot (68%).
Over 5.5 receptions is still playable up to -115. I would find alternatives to 63.5 receiving yards because I wouldn’t pay -134 on a yards prop. PointsBet is offering -115 at 66.5 and FanDuel is offering -110 at 67.5 yards. I would consider playing it up to 68. Our projections have him at 6.4 receptions and 71.8 receiving yards.
Risk: 1 unit to win 1.18 units on over 5.5 receptions
Risk: 1.24 units to win 1 unit on over 63.5 receiving yards
The Most Accurate Projections Since 2010