Monkey Knife Fight Plays: Week 2
A quick announcement: The format of this column is changing. The new format will compare Monkey Knife Fight (MKF) projections from their More or Less offerings to our award-winning accurate projections. I'll go through 10 plays we feel confident in exceeding (More Than) or failing to reach (Less Than) MKF's projections by the percent likelihood we give the outcome. The percentage you see in parentheses next to each player's name is the chance we believe the More Than or Less Than hits, according to our projections.
Most of our recommendations will be to side with the Less Than on MKF, as they know the majority of fantasy players like to root for more of everything—more points, more yards, more receptions, etc.—and set their numbers higher than a normal median projection.
Before we dive in, a More or Less refresher:
More or Less - You will be drafting your team by choosing More or Less for a group of player statistics presented. You will be squaring off with your own predictions. Choose the coinciding number of tiers correctly to win the prize shown prior to entry.
Top Week 2 MKF More or Less Plays
Mike Evans, WR – Buccaneers (78.8% - receptions, 71.8% - yards)
- MKF: 5.5 Receptions, 78.5 Receiving Yards
- 4for4 Projections: 4.1 Receptions, 63 Receiving Yards
These projections come in as the first and third most likely outcomes this week. Obviously, a lot of this hinges on Chris Godwin’s availability (concussion), in addition to how Evans’ hamstrings feel. He recently noted he is “over the hump” but it’s unlikely his effectiveness is at 100%. Even with a great matchup against Carolina, I’m confident Evans won't meet MKF's lofty projections.
T.J. Hockenson, TE – Lions (73%)
- MKF: 4.5 Receptions
- 4for4 Projections: 3.5 Receptions
Even though Hockenson was a big-time fantasy producer in Week 1 (16.6 PPR points), he was only targeted five times (13% target share). This production occurred even with Kenny Golladay sidelined. While Hockenson might see another five targets this week, it’s unlikely he catches all of them.
Aaron Jones, RB – Packers (71.6%)
- MKF: 72.5 Rushing Yards
- 4for4 Projections: 59.2 Rushing Yards
Jones has rushed for more than 72.5 yards in six of his last 19 games dating back to last season. Even though Detroit wasn’t very good against the Bears' running game in Week 1, Jones’ projected line of 72.5 rushing yards on MKF is still too high.
Calvin Ridley, WR – Falcons (71.3%)
- MKF: 5.5 Receptions
- 4for4 Projections: 4.6 Receptions
To be honest, I have a tough time taking this with too much confidence due to the matchup and expected game script. The total is 52.5 points, and the Falcons figure to play from behind against a very burnable Cowboys secondary. I’ll probably stay away, even though six receptions is a lot for a player like Ridley.
Evan Engram, TE – Giants (71.3%)
- MKF: 4.5 Receptions
- 4for4 Projections: 3.6 Receptions
Engram only recorded two receptions for nine yards last week, despite Golden Tate missing the game and the Giants playing from behind nearly the entire contest. He did see seven targets, but that only amounts to a 17% percent target share, since Daniel Jones attempted 41 passes. Our projections do not align with those found on MKF.
Darius Slayton, WR – Giants (69.6%)
- MKF: 4.5 Receptions
- 4for4 Projections: 3.7 Receptions
This is tough because Slayton and Daniel Jones seemed to have a dialed-in connection down the stretch last season and picked up where they left off in Week 1. With Golden Tate getting in a limited practice on Friday, it looks like he will play this week. Last year when Slayton was competing with at least two of Engram, Tate and Shepherd, he was much more volatile in terms of target share and overall production.
Miles Sanders, RB – Eagles (69.5%)
- MKF: 57.5 Rushing Yards
- 4for4 Projections: 46.6 Rushing Yards
Sanders missed Week 1 with a hamstring issue, but looks to be on track to play in Week 2. He figures to see a majority of the work but Boston Scott should still see a role. It seems unlikely the Eagles allow Sanders to be a bell-cow back the first week back from injury, so it's unlikely he exceeds his MKF projections of 57.5 rushing yards.
Lamar Jackson, QB – Ravens
- MKF: 235.5 Passing Yards
- 4for4 Projections: 268 Passing Yards
The Texans and Ravens project to be in a shootout come Sunday, with a total sitting at 50 points. There’s a chance the Ravens blow the Texans out and just run the ball, but they are only seven-point favorites. With the markets suggesting the Ravens won’t blow the Texans out and their secondary allowing an abysmal 68% passing success rate last week to the Chiefs, I lean on our projections here and believe Jackson should blow past MKF's passing projections for him.
Mark Andrews, TE – Ravens
- MKF: 52.5 Receiving Yards
- 4for4 Projections: 67 receiving yards
Our confidence in Lamar Jackson extended to his teammate and trusty tight end, as we also project Andrews for a higher receiving yards total than MKF does. Our projection is a whopping 25% higher than what MKF has set them at. With Hayden Hurst out of the picture, Andrews played 71% of the snaps last week—a career-high (14% above his previous career-high). Andrews should have an even bigger role going forward.
These are my favorite plays based on our projection recommendations at the time of publication:
- Mike Evans Less Than 77.5 receiving yards and Christian McCaffery Less Than 72.5 rushing yards
- Calvin Ridley Less Than 5.5 receptions and Michael Gallup More Than 69.5 receiving yards
- Lamar Jackson More Than 235.5 passing yards and Deshaun Watson More Than 254.5 yard
Editor's Note: The More or Less plays and projections were available at the time of this article being published. Please refer to MKF for the most up-to-date offerings.