NFL Week 11 Lookahead Lines

While Week 10 is here in the NFL, we look ahead to Week 11 for some closing line value. (All lines analyzed below can be found on FanDuel.) Last week, I gave out Steelers -9.5 and Bengals later, both of those lost. Unfortunately, I should have seen the Steelers almost losing to the Cowboys—no team in the NFL plays down to their competition as much as they do. Every year, the Steelers have a few close games or contests they outright lose to bad teams. This team is good against opponents who somewhat rival them because the Steelers take them seriously. I gave out Raiders -4 because Jon Gruden has done well in division, this is a win. Most of the week it was above -4, up until yesterday. The last game I gave out was Cardinals -2.5, the current line is -2.5 but this graded as a loss. Most of the week the line was below this number and slowly crept back up to -2.5, and we might even see it move to -3.

I don’t have a very strong feel for this week yet, as I keep going back and forth on a lot of games, but below are a couple of picks I've highlighted.

Lions @ Panthers (-2.5, -120)

The sharps love the Panthers and I don’t blame them. This Panthers team plays close to the top competition, losing at the Chiefs by two and losing at the Saints by three, for example. Their 31-17 loss to the Bucs in Week 2 was a phony final score. The Bucs were up by seven points with almost two minutes left in the game and then Leonard Fournette busted out a long touchdown, giving the Bucs a miracle cover and skewing the box score. This Panthers team seems to get better each week. I know Christian McCaffrey is out, but Mike Davis has been more than a capable backup. This Panthers team doesn’t have a bad loss yet this year.

The Lions are the Lions, everyone was picking them to do well—again. Matthew Stafford didn’t even finish Week 9 versus the Vikings, but he is on track to play Week 10 versus Washington. To me, this is a major situation edge toward Carolina. The Panthers are trending up. They might not be winning a lot of games but these players are playing hard for this coaching staff. The Lions have stunk under Matt Patricia once again. The defense is laughable and Kenny Golladay has been ruled OUT due to a hip issue. I'm not sure if Detroit is motivated for this one, especially when they have their tradition of playing on Thanksgiving five days after this game to look ahead to.

Pick: Give me the Panthers laying the -2.5, under the key number of -3.

Cowboys @ Vikings (-9.5, -110)

This handicap is another situation based game I like a lot for the Cowboys. Who are the Vikings to be laying nearly double digits? The media has fallen in love with this team the last two weeks, and especially Dalvin Cook, who has rushed for a combined 369 yards during that span. Albeit it, those wins and yards came against the Lions and Packers. The Packers had the lookahead versus the 49ers that week and the Vikings were coming off a bye, making the win less impressive.

The Vikings play the Bears in Week 10. In the last three games Cook has played versus Chicago, he ran for 35, 39, and 12 yards, respectively. This means the Bears know how to funnel the Vikings' offense, forcing Kirk Cousins to beat them. Since 2010, the Vikings are 2-8 straight up at Chicago and 2-7-1 against the spread. This team has struggled there.

Everyone forgets how bad Cousins is in primetime. Under the Vikings, Cousins is 3-7 straight up and 3-6-1 against the spread. When you add in his time in Washington, Cousins is 6-11 straight up and 6-10-1 against the spread. With everyone falling in love with the Vikings, this game scream let down on Monday Night. Cousins did play well in primetime this year at Seattle, but every team moves the ball well on Seattle’s defense.

For the Cowboys, this team is getting healthier and I believe that's why they were super bad (instead of just bad). They were missing quite a few key defensive players most of the year, and now they also get Zack Martin back. The Cowboys look like they have a competent quarterback in Garrett Gilbert, and the bye affords them extra prep and rest time. The Vikings defense still hasn’t been very good, ranking 22nd in drive success rate, 25th in points per drive, 20th in yards per drive and 24th in yards per play. Unless the Vikings offense is scoring a lot this game, I am not sure they get/want margin here. I think this game closes near to -7 than -10. I can’t lay 9.5 points to a team that has one win all year by more than 10 points when the Vikings are more interested in winning the game. Cowboys are alive in the NFC East still and seem motivated.

Pick: Cowboys +9.5

FanDuel Week 11 Lines (spread, price as of 11/13)

• Cardinals at Seahawks (-5.5, -110) *TNF
• Falcons at Saints (-7, -110)
• Bengals at Football Team (+1.5, -110)
• Lions at Panthers (-2.5, -120)
• Patriots at Texans (-2.5, -110)
• Eagles at Browns (-1.5, -114)
• Steelers at Jaguars (+9.5, -106)
• Titans at Ravens (-6.5, -110)
• Dolphins at Broncos (+1.5, -110)
• Jets at Chargers (-10, -110)
• Cowboys at Vikings (-9.5, -110)
• Packers at Colts (+1.5, -110)
• Chiefs at Raiders (+7.5, -110) *SNF
• Rams at Buccaneers (-3.5, -110) *MNF