Thursday Night DFS Single Game Breakdown: Texans at Chiefs

Sep 09, 2020

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It’s finally, at long last, time for real-life NFL football. It’s time for all of our best-laid plans to be put to the test of what actually happens on the field.

The beginning of this season of emotional fantasy football duress starts with the Texans and Chiefs—a rematch of a wild 2019 playoff matchup in which Houston appeared on their way to blowing out the Chiefs on their home field until, well, they didn’t. A three-touchdown first-quarter lead turned to dust and the Texans lost, 51-31, as Patrick Mahomes made mincemeat out of Houston’s porous defense.

Below is a breakdown of single-game DFS contests on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Week 1 Thursday Night Football matchup. Constructing single-game lineups requires some imagination, especially for large-field tournament purposes. We want to create a lineup that reflects a certain kind of game script, choosing players who would thrive—or at least have the chance to thrive—if their teams got out to a lead or were left chasing points in the second half. There’s also the neutral script that doesn't tend to inflate opportunity for any one player or team. Understanding the likelihood of each scenario and piecing together a roster that would score a bunch of points in such a scenario is key to success in these single-game contests.

Remember: For the captain spot on DraftKings, the price (and fantasy points awarded) are multiplied by 1.5. On FanDuel, the prices are the same throughout, but the MVP slot receives 1.5 times the fantasy point value of the other roster spots.

Vegas Spread And Total

Kansas City is at home, favored by 9.5 points in a game with a 54.5-point over/under. That leaves KC with an implied total of 32 points and the Texans with a total of 22.5. It’s hard— impossible—to say how an empty stadium with piped-in crowd noise will affect the teams, but we see the Chiefs are big favorites as they defend their title against a team they walloped in January.

Potential Game Flow Scenarios

Here’s a brief rundown of which players would likely benefit the most from various game flow scenarios. This, of course, is more art than science.

Close, low-scoring game

David Johnson
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Darrel Williams
Both defenses
Both kickers

Close, high-scoring game

Blowout for home team

Blowout for away team

Cheap Stacking Options

There are going to be obvious stacking plays in every showdown slate. Quarterbacks with their WR1 and/or TE and/or WR2, a running back with their defense, and so on and so forth. Below are some cheap, volatile stacking options that could serve us well in large-field tournaments.

QB Patrick Mahomes ($16,500 FD/$12,600 DK)/WR Mecole Hardman ($7,500 FD/$4,200 DK)

This combo is the second-best QB-WR value of Week 1 on FanDuel and the third-best value on DraftKings. It has the sixth-highest ceiling of the week on FanDuel and the 11th highest on DraftKings. Hardman provides some salary relief, though his floor remains frightening. He failed to draw more than two targets in seven of his final eight regular-season games in 2019, seeing a meager four targets in a pass-heavy script against Houston in the playoffs.

QB Deshaun Watson ($15,000/$11,800 DK)/WR Randall Cobb ($8,500 FD/$4,200 DK)

With Cobb locked in as the Texans’ slot receiver and this game sporting the week’s highest over/under, he’s very much in play. Like Hardman, Cobb gives us a little salary relief and potentially cheap targets as Houston tries to keep up with the Chiefs. If you go heavy on Chiefs players with a blowout expectation, Cobb is a decent “run it back” option who could see a bunch of targets in garbage time.

QB Deshaun Watson ($15,000/$11,800 DK)/TE Jordan Akins ($5,000 FD/$3,200 DK)

You could also deploy Darren Fells here—he is the team’s TE1, per Houston’s official depth chart. But Texans beat writers and coaches have talked up Akins as a weapon in the passing game. With the release of tight end Jordan Thomas, Akins could be in line for an expanded role, with more pass routes and, hopefully, more targets. Certainly not a cash game option, Akins could stumble into targets if the Texans are forced into a pass-heavy game plan. Twenty-six percent of targets against KC last year went to tight ends—the second-highest rate in the league.

Low-Priced Volatile Plays

Below are players near the bottom of the pricing pool in this single game contest who could break the slate—as the zoomers say—and could deliver close to nothing for DFS players. They’re best used in tournaments, where we strive for differentiation.

WR Kenny Stills, Texans ($7,500 FD/$4,600 DK)

Stills will reportedly see more snaps if Brandin Cooks is out or limited against the Chiefs. He becomes a great play that, unfortunately, might see high ownership in single-game slates if Cooks is declared out in the hours before kickoff. Even so, Still represents a deep threat stacking option for Watson.

RB Darrel Williams, Chiefs ($6,000 FD/$1,800 DK)

Will the mentor split carries with the rookie, Edwards-Helaire? While we don’t have the benefit of preseason to help answer that (critical) question, we know KC coaches and beat writers have talked about Williams sharing rushing duties with CEH in the season opener. Williams is a sensible tourney option for those building their lineups with a KC blowout win in mind. Having him in the same lineup with CEH could create a unique single game roster.

RB Duke Johnson, Texans ($8,000 FD/$4,800 DK)

Johnson, who saw eight targets in last year’s playoff loss to KC, is the potential beneficiary of a Houston offense left to chase points. In other words, Johnson is a good “run it back” candidate who comes at a palatable cost, especially on DraftKings, where we get full PPR scoring. Johnson saw at least five targets in five of six Houston losses last season. A hefty 24.5% of the receiving yards gained against KC last season were credited to running backs. It was by far the highest rate in the league. With KC’s secondary largely shutting down opposing receivers, quarterbacks were left to dump it off to backs and tight ends.