Jake's DK Top Plays and Best Bets for the U.S. Open

Every week on Wednesday afternoons, I’ll be posting a few of my favorite DraftKings plays in this article with brief write-ups of each player. I will also include some of my “best bets” for the week as well. I’ll use this space up top to recap the previous week and share any thoughts or takeaways I have going forward. I’ll include my top plays from the week prior, their DK Price, where they finished on the leaderboard, and how many DK points they scored. This article will be FREE every week, but with access to a 4for4 betting sub, you will get access to our discord and all of our bets (PGA + other sports).

Canadian Open Recap:

Last week was our best top plays week of the season. I wrote up Fox and Burns, who went to a playoff, and both played and scored amazingly. Another golfer in the midrange I wrote up was Smalley, who also played amazingly and finished T13. Lastly, I wrote up Danny Walker, who missed the cut, but if you played any combination of the other three, you should’ve had a good chance of cashing last week in DFS.

US Open Rabbit Hole Model (see below for Top 40 in my model):

Using promo code: JAKE10 you will get your first month $10 (regularly $29.99).

With a BetSperts subscription, you will have full access to my model as well as Ryan Noonan's, Ron Klos’, and others every week. You can also create your own model too. You will also get access to the BetSperts discord, where Ron and Ryan release bets as well: Outrights, T5/10/20/40, H2H Matchups, 3Balls, etc.

Feel free to drop a message in the Discord channel or on Twitter with any questions you may have.

My Key Rabbit Hole Stats This Week:

• SG: APP - All rounds in 2025
• DFEF - Last 50 rounds, fairway accuracy difficult
• GIR % - Last 50 rounds; scoring conditions difficult/very difficult and GIR % difficult
• Carry Distance - L50 rounds gain OTT difficult/very difficult
• Total Driving - L50 rounds; missed fairway penalty high
• SG: ARG - Gain ARG difficult/very difficult
• SG: Putting - L2 years, surface bent and bent/poa

US Open DraftKings Top Plays (DK Price, Outright Odds, Model Rank)

Jon Rahm, $10.2k, 12/1 Widely Available, 9th in model

Key Stats:

• 2nd in SG:T2G (Last 5 Years Comparable Courses)
• 5th in GIR % (Last 50 Rounds Difficult/Very Difficult Scoring & GIR Acc Difficult)
• 1st in 3-Putt AVD 25+% (Last 2 Years 3-Putt AVD Difficult)
• 14th in TOT Driving (Last 50 Rounds Fairway Accuracy Difficult)

Flashback to 2016, when the US Open was last held at Oakmont CC, Jon Rahm made his last start as an amateur and finished T23 at 21 years old. Rahm’s US Open success is notable; Rahm won in 2021 at Torrey Pines, and in his last five appearances, his worst finish is a T23 in 2020. Rahm struggled big time last year in the Majors with finishes of T45, MC, and a T7; Rahm has gotten off to a much better start in Majors this season with a T14 at the Masters and a T8 finish at the PGA Championship, which he was in contention in until the last few holes on Sunday. Rahm is one of the best total drivers of the golf ball in the world and has shown it on LIV and in his Major appearances. I think Rahm is still undervalued at $10,200 as he’s one of the most complete and best golfers in the world and has shown his game is built for the toughest tests of golf with wins at Augusta, Torrey Pines, Riviera, Olympia Fields, and Muirfield Village.

Tommy Fleetwood, $8.8K, +40/1 FD/DK, 6th in model

Key Stats:

• 13th in TOT Driving (Last 50 Rounds Fairway Accuracy Difficult)
• 7th in Bogey AVD % (Last 50 Rounds Difficult/Very Difficult Scoring)
• 8th in SG:P (Last 2 Years Fast Greens)
• 11th in SG:T2G (Last 50 Rounds Difficult/Very Difficult Scoring)

Fleetwood is in the middle of one of the best ball-striking seasons of his career and is STILL in search of his first win outside of the DP World Tour and Challenger Tour. Fleetwood is extremely accurate OTT, possesses incredible irons, which he has only lost strokes on APP in one out of his twelve appearances this season, and recently made a putter change, which he has shown a few spike weeks with, and overall consistency.

The two keys for success this week are to hit fairways and to hit greens, which Fleetwood is one of the best in the game at doing, but when you don’t hit the green, which is given at Oakmont given how low the GIR rate will be you need to be able to get up and down from this thick rough. Which, again, is what Fleetwood is very equipped to do, given he is 5th in the field in SG:ARG in 2025. I have touted Fleetwood all year in DFS, and he has shown an extremely high floor all season and has delivered big DFS points in numerous weeks. Fleetwood has come close to wins in his career; two years ago in Canada, he lost in a playoff to Nick Taylor, who sank a 60 or 70-foot putt, and another extremely close call was at the 2018 US Open, where Fleetwood shot a Sunday 63 to come up one stroke short of forcing a playoff against Brooks Koepka. Fleetwood’s all-around game and elite ball striking are perfect for the toughest tests of golf, especially major championship golf.

Corey Conners, $7.3K, +66/1 Bet365, 4th in model

Key Stats:

• 6th in SG:T2G (Last 50 Rounds Difficult/Very Difficult Scoring)
• 6th in TOT Driving (Last 50 Rounds Miss Fairway Penalty High)
• 6th in GIR % (Last 50 Rounds Difficult/Very Difficult Scoring & GIR Acc Difficult)
• 11th in 3-Putt AVD 25+% (Last 2 Years 3-Putt AVD Difficult)

Conners has been a premier ball striker for years, but his newfound success with his short game has taken his game to another level. Conners hasn't missed a cut since early January and hasn't finished outside the Top 20 in either major this season (PGA Championship and the Masters). Conners has teed it up in six US Opens in his career, only making one cut in his six appearances, but his only made cut was last season, and it was a T9 finish. Conners has gained strokes ball striking in every US Open he has played in, despite a large number of missed cuts; his short game was his Achilles heel. Like I said above, Conners is a different golfer on the greens this season and shouldn't putt himself out of the tournament like he did in 2021, 2022, and 2023, losing 2.1, 1.76, and 2.01 strokes, putting in those three starts. Conners' elite level of ball striking, accuracy off the tee, and newfound success putting make him an extremely high-floor golfer even at the toughest of test golf courses, and he should have success at Oakmont this week

Ryan Gerard, $6.1K, 200/1 FD/DK, 39th in model

Key Stats:

• 13th in SG:T2G (Last 16 Rounds)
• 19th in SG:BS (in 2025)
• 28th in SG:APP (Last 36 Rounds Gain APP Difficult/Very Difficult)
• 31st in ARG Prox (Last 50 Rounds Gain ARG Difficult/Very Difficult)

Gerard has been one of the biggest surprises on tour this season.

In 2023, Gerard earned his Tour card and was quite honestly horrible; he didn't even retain his card. Gerard spent 2024 on the KFT, grinded his way back onto the PGA Tour, and recently placed T8 at the PGA Championship. Gerard is a jack of all trades. He's flashed with his short game and ball striking. Gerard finished 2nd in the entire field at the PGA Championship in ball striking and two weeks later finished 17th in ball striking at the Memorial. Gerard's best ball-striking performances have come at challenging courses, and this week will be very difficult. It is very encouraging for Gerard that at courses such as Quail Hollow and Muirfield Village, where the missed fairway penalty is high, he was able to gain 1.22 and 0.79 strokes OTT in those two tournaments. Gerard has also gained around the green in eight straight tournaments, putting his savviness around the green on full display, which will be in high demand at Oakmont this week. If Gerard continues to strike the ball as well as he has in the past few weeks, he should make this cut more often than not, and at 6100, that's all you can ask for.

PLAY OF THE WEEK: Jon Rahm

US Open Bets:

Bets to come later on discord.

Betting Recap (last week and season):

Canadian Open: No official bets

Overall: 28-65, -$560

-7.97% ROI

Assumes betting to win $100 on a minus odds prop and risking $100 on a plus odds prop. On outrights and longshot bets, tracking smaller units or TO WIN X amount (specified on release)

Make sure to join Discord to get the rest of the bets for this week!

4for4 Additional Info:

Be sure to be in the 4for4 Discord, as I may push out additional plays that are not in the article, or there may be some odds movement on some of the bets. The best way to get access to the bets as they are released is to join our subscriber-only Discord. All of our staff’s plays are released there, and that is the best way to guarantee you get the original line we post. Join the Discord to receive push notifications whenever a prop is released by the 4for4 team. Go to Channels & Roles and customize your Discord experience.

You can join our Discord for free here! Make sure to add the PGA-Betting Channel to your channel list and turn on alerts for @Staff_Golf_Plays to get notifications for the bets as they are released.

For more betting content and takeaways, check out my Twitter (@JakeLotenberg2) and subscribe to our Discord. I’ll be tracking my best bet results at the end of each week and updating the article accordingly the following week.

This article is intended for entertainment purposes and adult users only. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem.