Jake's DK Top Plays and Best Bets for the RBC Canadian Open

Every week on Wednesday afternoons, I’ll be posting a few of my favorite DraftKings plays in this article with brief write-ups of each player. I will also include some of my “best bets” for the week as well. I’ll use this space up top to recap the previous week and share any thoughts or takeaways I have going forward. I’ll include my top plays from the week prior, their DK Price, where they finished on the leaderboard, and how many DK points they scored. This article will be FREE every week, but with access to a 4for4 betting sub, you will get access to our discord and all of our bets (PGA + other sports).

The Memorial Recap:

Overall last week was a decent week for the top plays. A typical Sunday collapse from Shane saw him fall from T7 to T23. Similarly to Shane, Cauley was T18 going into the weekend and tumbled down 21 spots because of his worst short game tournament of the season. Fleetwood had an extremely solid tournament and would’ve finished T5 had he not completely blown up on one Par 3 on Sunday. Noren had an okay tournament, was a little disappointed by his irons, but he still managed to make the cut and score some DK points.

TPC Toronto Rabbit Hole Model (see below for Top 40 in my model):

Using promo code: JAKE10 you will get your first month $10 (regularly $29.99).

With a BetSperts subscription, you will have full access to my model as well as Ryan Noonan's, Ron Klos’, and others every week. You can also create your own model too. You will also get access to the BetSperts discord, where Ron and Ryan release bets as well: Outrights, T5/10/20/40, H2H Matchups, 3Balls, etc.

Feel free to drop a message in the Discord channel or on Twitter with any questions you may have.

My Key Rabbit Hole Stats This Week:

• SG: BS - Last 36 rounds (this season)
• Driving Distance & Carry Distance - Last 50 rounds
• DFEF (Distance from Edge of Fairway) - Driver Heavy Courses
• SG: APP - Last 36 rounds in 2025
• Approach play from 150-200 and 200+ - In 2025
• SG: Putting - in 2025
• Par 4 BoB% - Last 18 months in driver-heavy courses

TPC Toronto DraftKings Top Plays (DK Price, Outright Odds, Model Rank)

Sam Burns, $9.3k, 28/1 FD, 31st in model

Key Stats:

• 21st in SG:T2G (Last 2 Years Long/Very Long Course & Average/Difficult Scoring)
• 1st in SG:P (in 2025)
• 2nd in SG:TOT (L50 Rounds Driver Heavy)
• 30th in Driving Distance (Last 36 Rounds)

Burns has been the BEST putter on tour this season, yes, #1. Burns is consistently losing strokes to the field with his Irons, but as of late, it's in the tenth-stroke range, which is acceptable when he's consistently gaining 1.5 strokes on the greens. Burns smacks the ball OTT, and if his irons pop, he should be in contention here. Burns has also had historical success on Driver Heavy courses, and his T2G numbers on long courses are also promising.

Ryan Fox, $7.7K, +70/1 FD, 18th in model

Key Stats:

• 5th in SG:T2G (Last 16 Rounds)
• 17th in Driving Distance (Last 36 Rounds)
• 7th in Overall 150-200 (in 2025)
• 11th in Par 4 Avg (in 2025 on Easy/Average/Difficult/Very Difficult Courses)

Fox's irons have been on fire this season, and the results have finally started pouring in for him. A win at Myrtle Beach, T28 at the PGA Championship, which marks the 2nd best career finish in a major, excluding The Open, and a T20 finish at the Memorial. It's safe to say Fox is hot right now, and at a course like TPC Toronto, where he should have a leg up on the field OTT with his distance, I am in on him. If Fox's short game shows up, he should be at the top of this leaderboard on the weekend.

Alex Smalley, $7.6K, +65/1 FD/BOL, 6th in model

Key Stats:

• 6th in TOT Driving (L12 Months Driver Heavy Courses)
• 12th in SG:APP (Last 50 Rounds Long/Very Long Courses)
• 1st in Par 4 Avg (in 2025 on Easy/Average/Difficult/Very Difficult Courses)
• 10th in SG:T2G (Last 16 Rounds)

Smalley, from January to March, was one of the best golfers on tour. Since then, he's taken a step back but has remained one of the best total drivers in this field. Smalley has struggled big time with his wedges over the last 3 months, but despite the down APP numbers, his long approach numbers are still above average, which means Smalley should face a good amount of long approaches this week. Smalley has played this event twice and placed inside the Top 25 in both starts. While those events were held at different courses, they profile somewhat similarly to TPC Toronto.

Danny Walker, $6.9K, 250/1 ESPN, 38th in model

Key Stats:

• 18th in SG:TOT (Last 50 Rounds Driver Heavy)
• 26th in SG:APP (Last 36 Rounds)
• 22nd in Dr Distance (Last 36 Rounds)
• 28th in SG:BS (in 2025)

Walker is long OTT, but not very accurate. This week, it looks like Walker should be able to get away with some of his accuracy issues. Walker is a well-rounded golfer; he can gain strokes in all facets of his game with no clear weakness besides accuracy. If Walker can limit the big misses OTT, he should be playing the weekend in Toronto. Walker has made the last 3/4 cuts. Two of Walker's best finishes, T25 at the Byron Nelson and T13 at the Mexico Open, are very long courses, just like TPC Toronto.

PLAY OF THE WEEK: Ryan Fox

TPC Toronto Bets:

Bets to come later on discord.

Betting Recap (last week and season):

Memorial Tournament: 1-1, -$20

Overall: 28-65, -$560

-7.97% ROI

Assumes betting to win $100 on a minus odds prop and risking $100 on a plus odds prop. On outrights and longshot bets, tracking smaller units or TO WIN X amount (specified on release)

Make sure to join Discord to get the rest of the bets for this week!

4for4 Additional Info:

Be sure to be in the 4for4 Discord, as I may push out additional plays that are not in the article, or there may be some odds movement on some of the bets. The best way to get access to the bets as they are released is to join our subscriber-only Discord. All of our staff’s plays are released there, and that is the best way to guarantee you get the original line we post. Join the Discord to receive push notifications whenever a prop is released by the 4for4 team. Go to Channels & Roles and customize your Discord experience.

You can join our Discord for free here! Make sure to add the PGA-Betting Channel to your channel list and turn on alerts for @Staff_Golf_Plays to get notifications for the bets as they are released.

For more betting content and takeaways, check out my Twitter (@JakeLotenberg2) and subscribe to our Discord. I’ll be tracking my best bet results at the end of each week and updating the article accordingly the following week.

This article is intended for entertainment purposes and adult users only. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem.