Monday Night DFS Single-Game Breakdown: Lions at Packers

Oct 14, 2019
Monday Night DFS Single-Game Breakdown: Lions at Packers

A big division rivalry with early-season implications takes place on Monday Night Football as the 2-1-1 Detroit Lions look to take over sole possession of first place against the home team 4-1 Green Bay Packers. It's an interesting game from many perspectives, especially with Davante Adams out. Whether the Packers continue to feature Aaron Jones with Jamaal Williams back from injury is one of the biggest questions we have to ponder on this slate.

Let's break down the game and how we can find the edge that might get us at the top of the leaderboards.

Injuries

Adams was confirmed out after missing Saturday's practice so it's a continued bump for Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Geronimo Allison, Jimmy Graham and Jake Kumerow. Amendola's status is uncertain so keep an eye on it heading into kickoff. If he is unable to go, it makes Marvin Hall a viable value option as Detroit's WR3.

Evaluation of Vegas Spread and Total

Packers -3.5 Over/Under 45.5

Bettors have been betting the Lions and the under this week as both numbers have gone down. The line as listed now is pretty close, although I do like the over will hit so I'll lean my analysis slightly that way.

  • Close, low-scoring game (<40 points) - 20%
  • Close, average-scoring game (40-49 points) - 30%
  • Close, high-scoring game (50+ points) - 30%
  • Blowout for the home team, low-scoring game - 10%
  • Blowout for the home team, average-scoring game - 5%
  • Blowout for the home team, high-scoring game - 5%
  • Blowout for the away team, low-scoring game - 0%
  • Blowout for the away team, average-scoring game - 0%
  • Blowout for the away team, high-scoring game - 0%
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