NFL DFS Week 3 Early-Only Slate Breakdown

Sep 20, 2019
NFL DFS Week 3 Early-Only Slate Breakdown

Here I will be breaking down the early slate (1pm only) and discussing my general strategy for both cash games and tournaments.

Cash Game Strategy

My cash game strategy is pretty similar every week. I first will look to lock in three workhorse running backs, although that's not always the easiest thing to do. Ideally, we want running backs on teams expected to be winning, playing at home and that will get the high-value touches. After that, I want to look for receivers that are cheaper but getting heavy volume that we can count on. What differentiates my process from most is that I typically look for not only targets but receivers that are more big-play threats. Some may view this as unnecessarily adding variance but because my lineups are so reliant on the floors of my running backs I look for the receivers to raise my ceiling in case of an injury. There's nothing worse than knowing your lineups are sunk early because of one your high-priced backs is out for the game after one quarter. At quarterback, I look for a value play with a high projected point total and a positive environment, which generally means being a home favorite. There are times where paying up for security at quarterback makes sense but it shouldn't really be plan A. Lastly at tight end, I hardly ever look to pay up due to their variance. If I can fit in an elite tight end then I'm not going to avoid it but I don't view the position as a core piece of my cash lineups. Instead, I'm looking to chase cheap targets and/or touchdown upside playing on teams with a high scoring total.

No strategy is flawless but these are the steps I take in my own process. Now let's dig into this week's picks.

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen ($7,500 FD/$5,900 DK)

Allen is the top value quarterback on this slate based on projections. The Bengals have allowed the ninth-most points to quarterbacks through two games and have allowed nearly three touchdown passes per game. Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott and Tom Brady are all in great spots this week but I'm probably going to run out Allen on both sites in cash.

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