Monday Night DFS Single-Game Breakdown: Giants at Eagles

Dec 09, 2019

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The finale for Week 14 sees the 6-6 Philadelphia Eagles look to stay alive in the playoff race hosting the 2-10 New York Giants who are looking to "stay alive" in another type of race - that for the #1 pick in the NFL draft. It's not the most exciting of games at least from what Vegas is expecting, but there are some plays we can make to differentiate our DFS lineups for the single-game slates on FanDuel and DraftKings.

Let's break down the game and how we can find the edge that might get us at the top of the leaderboards.

Injuries

Daniel Jones, NYG, QB - OUT
Evan Engram, NYG, TE - OUT
Rhett Ellison, NYG, TE - OUT
Jordan Howard, PHI, RB - Questionable
Nelson Agholor, PHI, WR - Questionable

Tonight's game sees Daniel Jones being ruled out meaning Eli Manning is back under center for the Giants. Evan Engram and Rhett Ellison remain out making Kaden Smith a strong value option. For the Eagles, Jordan Howard is questionable, but we are not expecting him to play. If he does, it's an obvious hit to the value of Miles Sanders and the value option that is Jay Ajayi.

Evaluation of Vegas Spread and Total

Philadelphia -9.5 Over/Under 44.5

Vegas sees this being a one-sided affair for the home team and relatively low-scoring at that. I see the Eagles winning handily, but I also do think there is some shootout potential and will account for that. Let's look at the likely game flow given this spread and total and assign some probabilities to each potential outcome.