DFS Projected Ownership Analysis: Week 13

Nov 29, 2019
DFS Projected Ownership Analysis: Week 13

Leveraging ownership percentages is a crucial aspect of creating tournament lineups. In this article, I use the 4for4 metric GPP Leverage Scores to highlight players whose projected ownership is either too high or too low. You can get a complete explanation of how the metric works here, but in short, the leverage score takes projected ownership and compares it to an implied ownership. The projected ownership is the prediction of what percentage of lineups a particular player will be owned in. A player’s implied ownership is 4for4’s recommended ownership based on salary, point projection and positional scarcity, among other factors. Comparing the two ownership percentages can highlight players who 4for4 projections are higher or lower on relative to the field. Note that every position may not be included in each section.

Players To Be Overweight On

QB Kyler Murray ($7,700 FD/$6,400 DK) vs. Rams

Arizona has one of the worst passing defenses in the league so DFS owners may be tempted to stack the Rams offense but I want the quarterback trending up. Murray has at least 21 fantasy points in three straight games, two of which came against the great 49ers defense. Los Angeles has shown vulnerability against mobile passers, allowing 29.9 and 36.3 fantasy points to Russell Wilson and Lamar Jackson, respectively. When adjusted for strength of schedule, the Rams rank 20th in fantasy points allowed to the position. With an over/under at 47.5, a spread of three and two defenses that could potentially struggle to defend the opposing passer, this could be one of the sneakier shootouts of the week. Using Murray in more than 10% of your lineups should put you plenty overweight on the field.

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