Primetime DFS Slate Breakdown: Week 9
Our Week 9 primetime slate brings us a Sunday night showdown with an over/under of 56.5 points while the Monday night matchup looks relatively mediocre sitting at 40.5. However, there is always recency bias to leverage in these primetime slates, so let's see where our edge is this week!
Tom Brady ($9,000 FD/$6,600 DK) and the Patriots are a six-point home favorite vs the Packers who rank 19th and 21st in aFPA to opposing quarterbacks and wide receivers, respectively. The over/under is currently sitting at 56.5 points with 64 percent of the money coming in on the over. With the Packers allowing 3.7 touchdowns per game on the road this season, I can see why bettors are leaning the over. Julian Edelman ($7,700 FD/$6,900 DK) trails only James White in market share of targets with 21 percent and has a respectable eight targets within the 20-yard line and four targets inside the 10-yard line over the past four games. Rob Gronkowski ($7,200 FD/$6,000 DK) is a low-key favorite to retire after this year and has been lackluster in regards to fantasy performances. He is only commanding a 16 percent market share and has a measly two red zone targets on the entire season. At this point, Gronk is nothing more than a tournament play who is coming in very low owned in these primetime slates. Josh Gordon ($7,200 FD/$6,000 DK) saw a respectable six targets in a tough matchup last week and leads the team with a 25 percent market share of air yards. We have seen Jaire Alexander get burned more than once already this season, making Gordon a low-floor/high-ceiling play this week. Chris Hogan ($5,800 FD/$4,100 DK) is playing more than enough snaps, 83 percent, but only has an 11 percent market share of his team's targets which takes him out of cash game consideration.
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