Primetime DFS Slate Breakdown: Week 7
Our Week 7 primetime slate gives us three teams with implied team totals of 25 points or more and once again, the Chiefs make an appearance. Both home teams are six-point favorites and three of our four teams are allowing opponents to run 65 plays or more per game. Let's break it down and find out where we can leverage the field and gain our edge.
Patrick Mahomes ($9,400 FD/$6,800 DK) once again profiles as the perfect QB in all formats vs the Bengals who rank 19th in aFPA to quarterbacks. He has two rushing touchdowns in his last three games and is averaging 4.5 rush attempts per game this year. He has no fewer than 38 pass attempts in the last four weeks and has an offensive line in front of him that ranks third in adjusted sack rate through six weeks. Just like last week, Mahomes is most likely to carry the highest ownership on the slate even with him being the most expensive QB on both sites, so there is something to be said about fading him based on ownership alone. Travis Kelce ($8,000 FD/$6,200 DK) leads the team with a 27 percent market share of targets and has a team-high three targets within the 10-yard line. I think it is important to remember that the Patriots sold out to ensure Kelce did not burn them last week and it worked to a degree. However, this week, Kelce will face a team that has allowed the second-most receptions and the seventh-most yards to the tight ends and ranks 25th in aFPA to the position. We could get Kelce at a lower ownership here due to recency bias and people focusing on stacking Tyreek Hill with Mahomes.
Tyreek Hill ($8,300 FD/$7,800 DK) leads the team with 576 air yards, which is the ninth most in the league and is just behind Kelce in market share of targets with 22 percent. The Bengals are allowing a league-high 210 yards to opposing wide receivers, making Hill and Sammy Watkins ($6,500 FD/$4,600 DK) both viable to stack together. Watkins continues to be a cheap way to get exposure to this offense and in every week but Week 4, has played at least 83 percent of his teams snaps. Watkins has a 7.4 average depth of target (aDOT) on the season and commands just 17 percent of his team's targets. Chris Conley ($4,500 FD/$3,200 DK) is playing an average of 72 percent of his team's snaps but lacks in every other department with just eight percent of his team's air yards and nine percent of team's targets. However, Conley is always an option when looking to differentiate yourself from the field, gain cheap exposure to the Chiefs, and create a unique lineup on a two-game slate.
The Most Accurate Projections Since 2010