Streaming Quarterbacks: Week 13 Targets

Nov 27, 2018

It’s hard to believe we’ve come this far on the season. Look at how much has changed since the early season. Green Bay’s season is nearly over after Rodgers’ miracle comeback in Week 1. The Dolphins starting off 3-0. Cleveland got their first win. Then the season-ending injuries started to pile up. Golden Tate and Demaryius Thomas were dealt away. Hue Jackson switched teams and became a parody from The Office due to his Special Assistant title. We now see seasons, jobs, and even careers on the line as the fantasy regular season nears its end. The drama is consistently intriguing, and it keeps our streaming options open even this late into the season.

Before diving into Week 13’s drama, let’s review Week 12. Our top streamer, Jameis Winston, finished as QB7 with 22.9 points. Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson also joined in on the fun with 25.9 and 20.2 points, respectively. The process paid off on most of our picks and we’ll use the same approach here. But first, let’s look at any changes to the defenses using 4for4’s tool.

Our Schedule-Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed ranks are updated for Week 13 with notable changes including:

BAL up from 16.4 to 14.7 aFPA
BUF up from 10.7 to 9.0 aFPA
CLE down from 15.1 to 17.5 aFPA
WAS down from 15.7 to 18.1 aFPA

Injuries and personnel changes have altered our views on many of the defenses originally viewed as positive matchups to target. Defenses are discussed above, and injuries are discussed in the section below. As always, the other guidelines include:

Only quarterbacks with no more than a 50 percent ownership in Yahoo leagues considered.
Ancillary metrics and game conditions (e.g. defensive ranking, weather) will be factored into the analysis.
Positive matchups for all pass catchers to be considered.
4for4 rankings should always be consulted for league-specific decisions.

Finally, we’re adding in something new with the playoffs around the corner. Our Playoff Matchup Planner has looked ahead at each matchup during the playoffs and averaged the fantasy points allowed for all positions. It should be your go-to site for all planning for those locked into a championship run. To consolidate the findings, some recommendations are provided below which will be adjusted each week as new information becomes available.

Key Defensive Injuries:

Tony McRae, Bengals (Head) – McRae suffered a brutal hit on a special teams’ play that required the use of a backboard and stretcher to get him off the field. With Andy Dalton also sidelined with a thumb injury, additional injuries to the defense are suboptimal at best. McRae is a rotational player that would be useful to Cincinnati’s defense (21.4 aFPA) as they host the Broncos in Week 13 as they vie for a wildcard spot.

Donte Jackson, Panthers (Quad) – Jackson was seen on the trainer’s table after taking a helmet to the gut in the first quarter. It was later determined they were working his leg on the same side he tweaked his ankle the previous week against Detroit. Corn Elder spelled him in his absence with less than stellar results. Carolina (20.2 aFPA) gave up a few long plays that cost them the game. Assuming Jackson is out again, their defense may struggle to contain Jameis Winston and the Buccaneers in Week 13.

Carlton Davis, Buccaneers (Knee) – Davis was held out of action in the second half due to a knee injury. The rookie out of Auburn was one of their starting corners and would be a big loss should he have to miss time. Tampa Bay (21.1 aFPA) has been the second-best defense to target for quarterbacks and another injury doesn’t help. It won’t make much difference given their injuries elsewhere but watch for Davis’ availability as Carolina travels to Tampa in Week 13.

Top Streaming Picks

Jameis Winston vs Panthers

If you have a defense carrying a 21.1 aFPA and you’re an above average quarterback, you’re worth a start in every fantasy league. It’s even better when you’re owned in just 47 percent of Yahoo leagues. Jameis was at the top of our list in Week 12 and we’re going back to the well in what should be a must-win situation for fantasy GMs in Week 13. The game environment sets up well for Tampa Bay. Carolina is in the bottom 10 for sacks and could be down a CB due to an injury sustained in Week 12. The 35-yard touchdown pass to David Moore and the game-ending 43-yard deep shot to Tyler Lockett both came on outside routes. Doug Baldwin and Nick Vannett were also able to produce on the interior. Both the Steelers and Lions used a similar game plan in the weeks prior with similar results. DeSean Jackson’s injury is concerning, but Tampa still has the personnel to exploit the gaps in Carolina’s defense (20.2 aFPA). Jameis is at home again in a game with the highest projected total on the slate, making him our top recommendation in Week 13.

Winston is available in 53 percent of Yahoo leagues.