Primetime Slate Breakdown: Week 11
Our Week 11 Primetime matchup brings us an absolute banger on Monday Night Football with the Rams hosting the Chiefs and has an over/under of 63.5 points. The Sunday Night game is not nearly as attractive with an over/under set to 45.5, but does allow us to leverage the field in a few places.
Mitchell Trubisky ($7,700 FD/$5,400 DK) and company carry an implied team total sitting at 23.5 points which is down almost a full point since it opened. The Vikings rank 21st in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to quarterbacks. When at home, Trubisky is averaging just south of 30 fantasy points per game this year. Nailing down the stack with Trubisky is always a difficult task, but Allen Robinson ($7,100 FD/$5,100 DK) leads the team with a 28 percent market share of air yards and a 20 percent market share of targets. Robinson should see the most of cornerback Xavier Rhodes who has allowed a 70 percent passer rating and only a 62 percent catch rate when targeted so far this year. Anthony Miller ($5,600 FD/$3,900 DK) is a true boom-or-bust play—last week was the first time he exceeded 50 yards receiving and he has the lowest market share of targets at 15 percent. Taylor Gabriel ($5,100 FD/$3,600 DK) has a date with Trae Waynes who has been well above average in coverage this year, ranking 30th in passer rating allowed when targeted. Couple that with a 19 percent market share of targets and you can start to see why picking the proper WR to stack with Trubisky is a tough ask. Trey Burton ($6,300 FD/$3,800 DK) only has a 16 percent market share of his team's targets, but ranks ninth amongst all tight ends in regards to routes ran, which usually translates to production from tight ends.
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