DRAFT Week 6 Breakdown and Top Plays

Oct 12, 2017
DRAFT Week 6 Breakdown and Top Plays

We’ve reached Week 6, and with it we get different matchups, new challenges, and a fresh set of players primed for your DFS lineups. The DRAFT platform has put together a unique format that marries redraft and DFS together into one exciting and different power couple.

Their weekly fantasy contests are not your typical salary cap format. Instead, they offer a series of snake-style draft contests with differing team amounts. You can choose from head-to-head, 3-team, 6-team, 8-team, or 10-team contests, with varying dollar amounts per contest. With each draft, players must select five position players: 1QB, 2RB, and 2WR/TEs. There are no salaries, no ownership percentages, and no large tourneys.

Below I will take a look at some of the best plays of the week, according to league size. You will see multiple references to aFPA, which is our schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. By using aFPA, we remove bias so we can level the playing field and compare matchups in an "apples-to-apples" manner. One more note: remember that DRAFT is a snake-style format, so you must plan accordingly in larger contest sizes.

H2H

With only two drafters involved, your cumulative score just has to be higher than that of your opponent. Since only 10 players are involved, stick to the elite DFS chalk here.

Quarterbacks

Tom Brady (NEP) @ NYJ

Without pesky salaries getting in the way, Brady is chalk every week. He has thrown for over 300 yards in his past four games and gets a Jets defense allowing an aFPA of 20.4 points to opposing QBs. Draft him with confidence any time you can.

Deshaun Watson (HOU) vs. CLE

Never in a million years did I think Watson would be a must draft in DFS at the start of the season, but as we all know, that’s why they play the games. The Texans rookie is the second-highest scoring QB, with 110.8 fantasy points over five games. Cleveland is the rock bottom of defenses at defending QB play, with an aFPA of 26.3 to the position.

Running Backs

Kareem Hunt (KCC) vs. PIT

Hunt leads the league in fantasy points with 127.5 PPR points—not just RBs, but the entire NFL. He’s putting up 25.5 PPR points per game and is averaging an admirable 6.3 yards per carry. Needless to say, he’s the back to draft regardless of matchup. This week he faces a Steelers defense ranked in the middle of the league at defending opposing RBs.

Todd Gurley (LAR) @ JAX

Currently RB2 on the season, Gurley faces a Jaguars defense with a strong secondary, but a weak run defense. Jacksonville ranks 28th in the NFL at defending the rush, with an aFPA of 30.4 PPR points to opposing RBs. So far this season, the third-year Ram has 405 rushing yards with 4 touchdowns, plus 241 receiving yards and another 3 scores through the air. He should rack up plenty more in Week 6 and should be rostered everywhere.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

DeAndre Hopkins (HOU) vs. CLE

There’s no argument that Hopkins is Watson’s favorite target. In fact, he is second among WRs in total targets with 61 on this season. The Browns give up an aFPA of 31.1 PPR points to wideouts weekly, which bodes well for Nuk this weekend. He’s rosterable in every contest in Week 6, so draft away.

Michael Thomas (NO) vs. DET

The game between New Orleans and Detroit has the highest over/under on this week’s slate at 50 points, with an implied total of 27.25 for the Saints. Drew Brees at home is solid, and Thomas should be the benefactor. He’s averaging 9.3 targets per matchup, translating to an average of 17 PPR points a game. Fresh from a restful bye week, Thomas should put up WR1 numbers this week, making him chalk for DFS.

3-Person Draft

When you enter a contest with only three teams, you’re either picking two players at a time, or you’re in the middle of two drafters doing just that. Same studs apply here; draft accordingly.

6, 8 or 10-Person Draft

Below you’ll find a few more recommendations for Week 6 starters to assist in filling out five-player rosters when more players are involved. You’ll need to dig a bit deeper into the rankings to find a player or two who will out-produce the players your opponents draft.

Quarterbacks

Drew Brees (NO) vs. DET

A rested Brees is a good Brees, and at home, he’s even better. Look for the Saints QB to produce well in Week 6, despite the so-so matchup versus Detroit's secondary. He’s averaging 19.4 points per game, which he should top in Sunday’s contest.

Aaron Rodgers (GBP) @ MIN

While not the greatest of situations for the Packers QB, he’s averaging 21.4 points a game, regardless of location. He’s the fifth overall QB in fantasy points and still has a large arsenal of weapons at his disposal. Rodgers may get overlooked in a draft format due to a road game, but the points should still be there.

Kirk Cousins (WAS) vs. SF

Cousins gets a soft 49ers defense that has to travel across the country following a tough Week 5 overtime loss to Indianapolis. San Francisco ranks 21st in defending opposing QBs, with an aFPA of 16.9. He’s another QB who may be passed over this week, but he has the potential to put up high fantasy numbers.

Matthew Stafford (DET) @ NO

The Saints defense is notoriously cushy, ranked 22nd in the NFL versus the QB position so far this season. Stafford is currently QB9 in overall fantasy points, averaging 16.4 per game. He has the receiving corps to lay down a big week, and Vegas has Detroit’s implied total at 22.75 points.

Running Backs

Leonard Fournette (JAC) vs. LAR

Ranked third in the league in touches this season, the rookie RB has been able to handle the heavy workload, averaging 21.7 PPR points per game. Fournette finds ways to get to the end zone, having scored at least one touchdown in every game—making him one of the safest RBs to roster week in and week out.

Melvin Gordon (LAC) @ OAK

Gordon has had one bad week, but has been otherwise solid to start this season. He’s averaging 18.4 PPR points per game and is facing an Oakland defense allowing an aFPA of 24.7 points to opposing RBs. The black hole isn’t what it used to be and Gordon should have no trouble rushing against this soft Raiders defense.

Devonta Freeman (ATL) vs. MIA

With rested legs from a week off, Freeman gets Miami's defense at home—a team with an aFPA of 21.0 to the RB position. The Atlanta RB is averaging 19.8 touches a game to Tevin Coleman’s 10.5, so volume shouldn’t be an issue on Sunday. Freeman ranks third in the league when it comes to carries inside the 5-yard line, and I expect him to add to that number in Week 6.

C.J. Anderson (DEN) vs. NYG

New York’s defense is allowing 119 rushing yards per game and sits 23rd when it comes to aFPA. Anderson himself is putting up an average of 15.4 PPR points per game this season, with 20.8 touches a contest. This scenario sets up nicely for the Denver RB, as not only is Denver's defense stout, but the Giants offense is depleted, meaning more time on the field for Anderson to do his thing.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Michael Crabtree (OAK) vs. LAC

With Derek Carr set to return this week, Crabtree should produce against a Chargers defense giving up an average of 33.2 PPR points to opposing wideouts. Both he and Amari Cooper are averaging around 6 a game, yet Crabtree has more than double the total fantasy points on the season with 68.2 to Cooper’s 30.8. Even if E.J. Manuel is under center, Crabtree is still draftable, as the veteran WR caught 6 passes for 82 yards and a touchdown with Manuel throwing the rock in Week 5.

Julio Jones (ATL) vs. MIA

With an implied total of 29 points in Week 6 for Atlanta, that means there are plenty of fantasy points to go around. Jones has the highest target rate per snap in the Falcons offense (17.8%). With Mohamed Sanu likely out on Sunday, his overall target share should increase. Coming off a bye week, Jones should be solid and a no-brainer as far as DRAFT goes.

Chris Hogan (NE) @ NYJ

The most targeted player on the Patriots offense, Hogan is averaging 7.4 balls a game, translating to a very respectable 16.7 PPR points per outing. New York is currently ranked 28th in the league against opposing WRs, with an aFPA of 39.2 to the position. Hogan isn’t a top-tier option, but is certainly in the conversation as a draftable WR who could end up being a difference maker this week.

Jarvis Landry (MIA) @ ATL

Landry has nearly double the targets of DeVante Parker heading into Week 6, and Parker may be sidelined this week with a bum ankle. Miami’s offense is struggling, with only three touchdowns so far in four games. If they fall behind against a high-powered Atlanta offense, the Dolphins may be forced to turn pass-heavy, boding well for Landry’s fantasy output.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins (NYJ) vs. NE

Here’s your contrarian play of the week. Your opponents will most likely grab Travis Kelce, Rob Gronkowski, or Jordan Reed, leaving you with a guy who has the potential to score big this week in ASJ. The Patriots defense is currently ranked 28th against the TE position with an aFPA of 16.0 PPR points. McCown and ASJ have a good thing going, and I expect it to continue on Sunday.

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