DRAFT Week 4 Breakdown and Top Plays

Sep 28, 2017
DRAFT Week 4 Breakdown and Top Plays

Week 4 has arrived, and with it we get different matchups, new challenges, and a fresh set of players primed for your DFS lineups. The DRAFT platform has put together a unique format that marries redraft and DFS together into one exciting and different power couple.

Their weekly fantasy contests are not your typical salary cap format. Instead, they offer a series of snake-style draft contests with differing team amounts. You can choose from head-to-head, 3-team, 6-team, 8-team, or 10-team contests, with varying dollar amounts per contest. With each draft, players must select five position players: 1QB, 2RB, and 2WR/TEs. There are no salaries, no ownership percentages, and no large tourneys.

Below I will take a look at some of the best plays of the week, according to league size. You will see multiple references to aFPA, which is our schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. By using aFPA, we remove bias so that we can level the playing field and compare matchups in an "apples-to-apples" manner. One more note: remember that DRAFT is a snake-style format, so you must plan accordingly in larger contest sizes.

H2H

With only two drafters involved, your cumulative score just has to be higher than that of your opponent. Since only 10 players are involved, stick to the elite DFS chalk here.

Quarterbacks

Tom Brady (NEP) vs. CAR

Without that hefty price to worry about like with other sites, Brady is a no-brainer in DRAFT contests this week. Sure, Carolina's defense has been tough in the past, but they were soft against Drew Brees and the Saints offense last week, giving up 220 yards and 3 touchdowns through the air. Brady will be Brady this week and I want a part of the sweet action.

Russell Wilson (SEA) vs. IND

This game is the perfect chalk matchup for Wilson and the Seahawks offense. CenturyLink Field is a tough place to play for any team, but the struggling Colts should have a rough day containing a guy who really excels in his home environment. As a mobile quarterback, Wilson is a threat with every snap, so look for him to get this Seattle team back on track in Week 4.

Running Backs

Ezekiel Elliott (DAL) vs. LAR

With the exception of Denver, Elliott has run all over his opposing defenses, with the third-highest touches among RBs in the league through the first three weeks. This week, he gets the Rams, who are the third-worst when it comes to rushing defenses with an aFPA of 32.9 to running backs they’ve faced this season. Elliott should eat this weekend, so grab him before your opponent does.

Leonard Fournette (JAX) @NYJ

This game could be super messy on both sides of the ball, but Fournette should have the volume to put up big numbers this week. The Jaguars rookie RB is sixth in the league in touches with 65, averaging 21.7 per game. The Jets are currently dead last at defending the run, with an aFPA of 34.7 points to opposing RBs. Fournette makes for an excellent start this week, regardless of contest size.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

A.J. Green (CIN) @ CLE

We finally saw the Green we all know and love in Week 3, and Sunday’s matchup is setting up to be a productive one as well. The Browns secondary has been torched this season, allowing incredible fantasy numbers to Antonio Brown, Jeremy Maclin, and T.Y. Hilton, and they have an aFPA of 38.8 points to opposing WRs. Green should find success against Cleveland’s corners and is begging to be rostered this week.

Keenan Allen (LAC) vs. PHI

Sure, the Chargers offense has been underwhelming so far this season, but they should turn it around this weekend. Allen is currently WR5 in the NFL in total targets with 29, and is going up against an Eagles secondary decimated with injuries this season. Even the struggling Giants blew up in the second half against Philly in Week 3. This game should be an air show for Phillip Rivers, with Allen as his main recipient.

Odell Beckham Jr. (NYG) @ TB

Tampa Bay’s defense is currently occupying the sub-basement when it comes to defending WRs, with an insane aFPA of 61.0 PPR points per game to opposing wideouts. Beckham is a stud and should put up huge numbers this week against Tampa Bay's secondary. Draft him early and often this week.

3-Person Draft

When you enter a contest with only three teams, you’re either picking two players at a time, or you’re in the middle of two drafters doing just that. Same studs apply here; draft accordingly.

6, 8 or 10-Person Draft

Below you’ll find a few more recommendations for Week 4 starters to assist in filling out five-player rosters when more players are involved. You’ll need to dig a bit deeper into the rankings to find a player or two who will out-produce the players your opponents draft.

Quarterbacks

Drew Brees (NO) @ MIA (game in London)

With 58.7 total fantasy points through the first three weeks, Brees is currently the fantasy QB4 on the season. He struggled a bit in Week 1 versus the Vikings, but has been back to slinging the ball for the past two games. In Week 4, the Saints head to London to face a Dolphins defense with the sixth-worst aFPA (20 PPR points) in the NFL. Brees should have no trouble connecting with his wideouts, plus he gets the bonus of Willie Snead back on the field after a three-week suspension.

Carson Palmer (ARI) vs. SF

After a Week 1 disaster which had many of us thinking Palmer had finally hit the age wall, the Cardinals QB turned it around the next two weeks, scoring a combined 37.6 fantasy points. Sunday afternoon, Arizona gets a home tilt versus the 49ers, who have been decent against opposing signal-callers, falling in the middle of the pack with an aFPA of 18.0. With their running game a bit stifled, look for Palmer to air it out a tad more than the usual game script calls for.

Deshaun Watson (HOU) vs. TEN

This rookie QB can play and has put together two solid weeks, with 17.7 and 20.1 fantasy points, respectively. Tennessee’s defense has been pretty soft this season, giving up an aFPA of 21.7 to QBs, the fifth-worst mark in the league. Watson has some solid weapons at his disposal, with DeAndre Hopkins playing well, and TE Ryan Griffin stepping up in the absence of C.J. Fiedorowicz, who’s on IR. Look for Watson to put up decent fantasy numbers this week, with him most likely being overlooked by your competitors.

Running Backs

Dalvin Cook (MIN) vs. DET

Through the first three weeks of the season, Cook is sitting second among RBs in touches with 71, and eighth in overall PPR points with 53. The Vikings face the Lions this week at home, which bodes well for the rookie RB, seeing as though Detroit’s aFPA is 28.6 to the position. Cook has been very productive thus far and should continue at this pace in Week 4.

Todd Gurley (LAR) @ DAL

Sitting as RB2 on the season, Gurley is producing huge weekly fantasy numbers, with a three-week total of 85.1 in PPR formats. Not only is he a threat on the ground, but he’s proven to be a solid pass-catcher as well, with 17 targets so far this season. The Rams fly to Dallas in Week 4, matching up with a Cowboys defense with an aFPA of 31.2 PPR points to RBs this season. Gurley is set to carve these guys up, so the Rams RB should be rostered in all DRAFT contests.

LeSean McCoy (BUF) @ ATL

Like Gurley, McCoy is a threat in the passing game, owning the fourth-highest targets among RBs, with 20. He’s been reliable in the backfield as well, putting up double-digit fantasy numbers in each of the first three games. On Sunday, the Bills RB faces a cushy Falcons run defense that has allowed 90.1 cumulative points to RBs this season. McCoy should get his typical workload in Week 4, so feel confident drafting him.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) vs. SF

Coming off a Monday Night Football performance where he undoubtedly won many people some cash, (including myself) dropping 33.9 PPR points, Fitzgerald could see another productive game in Week 4. Without much of a run game with David Johnson on the shelf, Carson Palmer will need to rely on his old faithful and feed Fitzy the rock.

Antonio Brown (PIT) @ BAL

Brown is WR2 in the league in targets per game with 12 and should see similar volume this week in Baltimore. He’s elite for a reason and is generally always in the conversation when it comes to DFS. Regardless of contest size, the No. 1 wideout in Pittsburgh should be drafted every week.

Doug Baldwin (SEA) vs. IND

Baldwin is the highest targeted member of the Seahawks receiving corps, with 28 so far this season. Indy’s secondary has been allowing an average of 33.8 points to their opposing WRs, so Baldwin should fare well in this week’s contest. Vegas has Seattle scoring close to 28 points, and at home, that total could creep a bit higher.

Stefon Diggs (MIN) vs. DET

No matter who the Vikings have under center, Diggs finds a way to score fantasy points. The third-year WR is sitting on top of the PPR points mountain with 70.1 after three weeks. Minnesota’s Week 4 matchup versus Detroit isn’t the best for wideouts, but Diggs should put up decent numbers worthy of being drafted.

Emmanuel Sanders (DEN) vs. OAK

The Raiders secondary is allowing the sixth-highest completion percentage in the NFL, with an aFPA of 36.6 PPR points to opposing WRs. While Demaryius Thomas gets most of the attention, Sanders has more fantasy points and targets through the first three weeks of 2017. Both guys should produce on Sunday, I just like Sanders’ big-play ability a bit more.

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