UFC Fight Night Tsarukyan vs Gamrot: 4 Props to Target at Prize Picks

UFC Fight Night Austin, Texas brought a few surprise results and a record-breaking night of knockouts. Unfortunately, we went 1-3 on our picks. We move on to UFC Fight Night Las Vegas, headlined by Arman Tsarukyan and Mateusz Gamrot. With a nice mix of matchups projected to both finish and go the distance, we have multiple lines to attack and get back on track.

UFC Fight Night Tsarukyan vs Gamrot: 4 Props to Target at Prize Picks

Thiago Moises over 35.5 Significant Strikes Landed

This line seems simple to attack. Thiago Moises is 5-4 in the UFC with another win on Dana White’s Contenders Series. In all but one of those wins, Moises has landed at least 36 strikes. The lone win that did not was an early 1st round submission win versus Michael Johnson. Moises is favored in this fight against Christos Giagos who has fought four of six UFC fights to a decision. With Giagos’ finishing rate sitting at 57%, I expect this one to go to a decision, giving Moises a shot at hitting this line.

Shavkat Rakhmonov over 110.5 points

Rakhmonov will be one of the featured fighters on this card as he gets a step up in competition against veteran Neil Magny. Magny offers a bit of a test in that he is a veteran that knows how to extend fights. Of Magny’s wins, 38% have gone to decision. The opposite is true as Rakhmonov has finished all 15 of his fights. With explosive power on the feet and a good guillotine, Rakhmonov will only have to avoid Magny eating up minutes in the clinch to make good on another finish.

Umar Nurmagomedov over 111.5 points

The fight I am most confident in being finished comes at the hands of Umar Nurmagomedov. Not only is he the biggest favorite on the card, but 67% of bets are coming in on Umar getting the finish. Nurmagomedov has finished four of his last five fights by submission and Nate Maness has nothing in his fight catalog that leads me to believe that he will be able to stop Nurmagomedov from taking this fight to the floor. I predict Nurmagomedov by rear-naked choke in the second round.

Mario Bautista over 68.5 significant strikes landed

Another fight I am projecting to go the distance takes place in the prelims. Mario Bautista takes on Brian Kelleher in a matchup of fighters that barely finish fights at a 50% rate. Both fighters have solid takedown defense and have proven toughness. Kelleher has fought three of his last four fights to decision with the finish being at the hands of the above-mentioned Nurmagomedov. Bautista sports a three-inch reach advantage over Kelleher, who absorbs over four and a half strikes per minute. Couple that with Bautista’s output and this line looks nice