Week 14 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
The Chargers face one of, if not, the worst defenses in the league at this point in the season this week. Los Angeles has an implied team total of 31 points. Only the Saints implied total is higher. Plus, Philip Rivers has thrown multiple touchdown passes in every game this season. The Bengals are 17th in aFPA to WRs. With Melvin Gordon out, Keenan Allen is exploding; however, it started after the bye week. He has 57 targets in his past five games. His elite talent is showing again, and he is among the best WR options in Week 14. Only Allen is a viable starting receiver in this offense though, as Mike and Tyrell Williams have a combined nine targets in their past two games.
Week 13 at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Chargers have an average implied team total of just over 24 points this week, but with negative game script expected as a road underdog, and Melvin Gordon out this week with a knee injury, Philip Rivers fantastic efficiency should now add some passing volume. That should also help target monster Keenan Allen, who is averaging more than 20 PPR points per game since the Chargers bye. The Steelers may rank top three in aFPA to WRs, but slot corner Coty Sensabaugh is one of the worst in the league. Arrow pointing up to Allen.
Week 12 vs. Arizona Cardinals
The Chargers have an implied team total of 28 points, an attractive projection. This is a run funnel defense that the Chargers will face with Arizona ranking top 10 in aFPA to WRs, but Keenan Allen should avoid Patrick Peterson in the slot. In fact, slot corner Budda Baker is allowing a completion percentage of 74.2 percent. Sometimes the surface match-up numbers do not apply. With Allen averaging double-digit targets since the bye week, he is on the WR1 radar given his recent usage and coverage in this game.
Week 11 vs. Denver Broncos
Fantasy owners should expect a run-heavy attack this week for the Chargers. Denver is eighth in aFPA to QBs and 12th in aFPA to WRs this season but just 18th in aFPA to RBs. With a large implied team total of 26.75, Keenan Allen's target share since the bye week cannot be ignored, even if Rivers has five consecutive weeks of fewer than 30 pass attempts. Allen's large 35 percent target share in LA's two games since its bye keeps Allen in the WR1 conversation in Week 11.
Week 10 at Oakland Raiders
Keenan Allen was already seeing a 28 percent target share coming out of the bye last week and proceeded to add to that share with 10 more targets and more than 100 yards against Seattle. Allen started off slow last season then exploded after the bye week, and if last week was any indication, he's ready to do it again, especially against a pitiful Raiders secondary ranked just 26th in aFPA to WRs. Allen is averaging 89 yards in his last three games against Oakland, and Los Angeles has the third-highest implied team total on the Sunday slate. Allen is back as a WR1 in fantasy.
Week 8 at Seattle Seahawks
Keenan Allen's target share has kept him among the top 30 wide receivers this season, despite not scoring since Week 1. His red zone usage is cause for concern though if he's going to return to the WR1 conversation. Allen was second in the NFL in both RZ targets (24) and targets inside the 10 (15) last year. He only has five RZ and three inside the 10 through seven games this year.
Out of the bye week, let's see if that changes. Allen also had a slow first half of the season last year, but he's actually been better than that 2017 first half this year. Then in the second half of 2017, he exploded for a 1600-yard, double-digit touchdown pace.
For Week 9, he's still a WR2 for us, despite a difficult match-up in Seattle, with hopes that the dominant Allen returns.
Week 7 vs. Tennessee Titans (London)
The Chargers are favored with an implied team total of 26 points, foreshadowing what should be a successful offensive day for this offense. Philip Rivers is having one the of the best starts to his career, and he's still targeting Keenan Allen at a high rate, despite Allen's touchdown drought continuing last week. Allen has a healthy 26 percent target share this year, and last week that target share was 29 percent. Los Angeles just didn't throw many passes in Week 6. Keep trusting Allen to provide a trustworthy WR2 floor with WR1 upside when he finds the endzone. That may be this week against a Titans defense ranked just 21st in aFPA to WRs.
Week 6 at Cleveland Browns
The Chargers have a below average implied team total this week in Cleveland, facing a rebuilt Browns defense that has forced 11 turnovers in three home games this year. This unit ranks 10th in the NFL in aFPA to WRs. Allen hasn't scored since Week 1, but his target share remains strong, averaging more than nine per game. He's 13th in the league in targets. Allen continues to be a reliable WR2 option with weekly WR1 upside. That is no different in Week 6, despite the tough match-up.
Week 5 vs. Oakland Raiders
The Chargers have the third-highest implied team total in Week 5 at 28.75 points. Oakland is just 21st in aFPA to WRs this season. Allen has been a bit of a disappointment with three straight weeks without a touchdown and below 70 yards, but the targets are still there (nine per game). Have confidence that a bounce back is coming soon. He has not been on the injury report in Week 5 after having two missed practices in Week 4. Keep starting him.
Week 4 vs. San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers rank 10th in aFPA to WRs, and only the Chiefs have a higher implied team total this week, with the Chargers expected to score 28.5 points. Allen struggled last week against the Rams, and he did not practice Thursday with a knee issue. That needs to be monitored, but his high target usage each week keeps him on the WR1 radar if healthy.
