Week 9 vs Las Vegas
Allen had yet another strong game last week, as he caught nine receptions for 67 yards and one touchdown on 12 targets. Allen was poised for a bigger game since most of his production came before halftime, however, the Chargers kept pounding the run in a game that ultimately ended in a blown lead. Even in a game that saw Mike Williams finally have a good game opposite a healthy Allen, he was able to produce high-end WR1 numbers.
Taking on the Raiders in Week 9 who rank 15th in aFPA to WRs this season, it doesn’t really matter what the matchup looks like for Allen. As the fourth-most targeted player in the league (and that’s missing most of one game), Allen will continue to eat and is an elite WR1 in PPR leagues.
Week 8 at Denver
Allen proved once again to be a PPR monster as he finished last week with 10 receptions for 125 yards on 13 targets. Since Justin Herbert has taken over at QB, Allen has been the entrenched WR1 and has seen double-digit targets in every healthy game he’s played with Herbert under center. Unlike prior years with Phillip Rivers, Allen isn’t just getting peppered with targets in underneath routes, rather he’s been running his full route tree seeing heavy work in the intermediate range and seeing plenty of opportunities outside of the numbers.
The Denver Broncos are ranked 14th in aFPA to WRs this season, which tees up Allen to have another big receiving game, Much like managers have all season, lock in Allen as WR1 in this with potential to finish as this week’s overall WR1 with a touchdown or two.
Week 7 vs Jacksonville
Prior to missing the bulk of his Week 5 game against the Saints, Allen caught two passes for 29 yards and a touchdown early in the first quarter. With Allen being cleared this week, he will once again be in the WR1 conversation as he has been the primary target for Justin Herbert all season. As a reminder for fantasy managers, prior to Allen’s injury, his target count in the previous three weeks Herbert were 10, 19, and 11. If this trend continues, Allen may very well finish as a top-4 WR in PPR leagues.
Playing against an injured Jacksonville secondary who is ranked 23rd in aFPA to WRs this season, there should be little doubt in Allen to produce elite WR1 numbers yet again.
Week 5 at New Orleans
Allen continues to be Justin Herbert’s clear-cut option as he finished last week with 11 targets for eight receptions and 62 yards. Since Allen has been starting, Allen has yet to see fewer than 10 targets in a game and even in a against three top-10 aFPA defenses over the course of the past three weeks, Allen has averaged a line of 9.3-96.7-.33. He has been an absolute stud in PPR formats and there is no end in sight with his primary competition for targets in Austin Ekeler being sidelined for the next six weeks.
In what will be another difficult matchup against Marshon Lattimore and the Saint’s 8th-ranked aFPA to WRs, Allen should continue to produce as he should an abundance of targets. Considering the matchup, keep Allen fired up as a low-end WR1 in this one.
Week 4 at Tampa Bay
Allen easily had his best game of the season last week as he was targeted 19 times and caught 11 passes for 136 yards and one touchdown. As it was in Week 2, Keenan Allen was Justin Herbert’s primary target in Week 3 as he threw to Allen in almost every situation.
Allen’s matchup against Tampa Bay gives him another chance to have yet another big day as the Bucs have the 13th-highest aFPA so far this season, surrendering 38.6 fantasy points to the opposing team’s wide receivers. In a game that should see Los Angeles trailing, expect another target-heavy game for Allen as he should produce high-end WR2 numbers.
Week 3 vs. Carolina
Eve after Week 1’s performance, Allen still had some WR2 appeal with the targets he received, however his Week 2 game with new starting QB Justin Herbert saw him with a team-high 10 targets which he turned into seven receptions for 96 yards. The seemingly upgrade in QB is great for Allen as he and Herbert showed they instant chemistry. A Week 3 matchup against a banged-up Carolina secondary keeps Allen firmly on the WR2 radar.
Week 2 vs. Kansas City>/strong>
On paper Allen’s performance wasn’t indicative of anything more than a WR3 as he finished with four receptions for 37 yards. However, he did see eight targets and saw almost 95% of the team snaps, so it gives us reason to be optimistic for Allen. There is potential for a rebound against Kansas City’s secondary, giving Allen some upside WR3 appeal in this matchup.
Week 1 vs. Cincinnati
An absolute metronome at the WR position, Keenan Allen has been reliable in PPR leagues as he’s usually towards the top of the league in receptions and targets. However, this will be his first season without Phillip Rivers under center, creating a large question mark for his 2020 productivity. Allen has always shown great hands and crisp route-running, so he should be productive regardless. Start Allen as a low-end WR2 for the season opener.
Fantasy Upside
As Fansided.com recently suggested, coming off his third consecutive season with over 1,000 receiving yards (in fact, he's posted at least 136 targets, 97 catches, 1,196 yards and six touchdowns over those three years), Keenan Allen has quietly established himself as one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. He produced eight games in the top 20 this past season, including four games with 20-plus points. He did have a bad six-game stretch around midseason though, failing to score more than 12.3 fantasy points in any game, but it's easy to forget what a consistent producer he's been. Also worth noting, as ESPN's Mike Clay pointed out, Allen's reputation for being an injury risk needs to be forgotten. Allen hasn't missed a single game since 2016.
Fantasy Downside
This year, Allen will have a new quarterback for the first time in his career. Philip Rivers wasn't brought back by the Chargers, which means either Tyrod Taylor or Justin Herbert will start in Los Angeles this season.
2020 Bottom Line
Even with questions at QB, Allen still heads into fantasy draft season with a high-end WR2 asking price. We believe that's too high. The sweet spot for us is in the middle of the WR3 range. Don't overpay.
Week 17 at Kansas City Chiefs
In Week 18, Allen finished with five receptions on ten targets for 71 scoreless yards, 95 air yards, 26% of the team targets, and 46% of the team air yards.
The Chargers have been out of the playoff picture for quite some time. However, at the time of writing this, the Chargers are likely to play their starters because this could be Rivers’ last game as a Charger.
Allen is in a difficult matchup on the road and the Chargers are only implied for 18.25 points. Kansas City is the third-best defense against wide receivers, as shown by our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. 4for4’s rankings expert, John Paulsen, has Allen ranked as a mid half PPR WR2.
