Week 6 - Allen vs. Oakland
Keenan Allen had just another average day with three catches for 25 yards on seven targets. It was supposed to be a good matchup against a Jets defense that gives up fantasy points in the passing game, but Allen wasn't really a factor in the Chargers gameplan again last week.
This week's matchup is Oakland, and the Raiders rank 13th in allowing fantasy points to WRs. Teams tend to find more success running the ball against Oakland, and Allen comes in only 25th on our WR list which makes him a middle of the road WR3 in 10-team leagues. Considering he's had one big game, against the Jags, this year, that may be even too generous. The Bolts passing game has been successful this season without Allen making a lot of contributions.
Week 5 - Allen vs. NY Jets
Keenan Allen finally busted out last week catching 10 passes for 135 yards on 11 targets. Up to that point, he had just 12 catches for 109 yards on 17 targets in three games.
The matchup is again a good one this week as the Jets rank 26th in allowing fantasy points to WRs. The Chargers have really struggled to run the ball with Ryan Mathews out of action, so this is shaping up as a game the team may have to throw more than they normally like to, as the Jets run defense is excellent. Allen is a solid WR2 in our rankings this week and the hope is Week 4 jump-started him back into 2013 form.
Week 4 - Allen vs. Jacksonville
Keenan Allen continued his slow start, collecting just two catches for 17 yards in a good matchup against Buffalo. He was only targeted those two times.
This week it's the Jags who rank 15th in allowing fantasy points to WRs, likely in part due to teams having running success in blowout wins late in games. For Allen owners, this was supposed to be a nice stretch of games, but if he puts in a dud fantasy performance this week it may be time for other options. Given the matchup, Allen is just a high-end WR3 play in our rankings this week so we're not quite ready to trust him, but the opportunity is there for a bounce-back game. We still believe in him long term, but would like to see signs of life.
Week 3 - Allen vs. Buffalo
Allen caught five balls for 55 yards last on six targets, mostly going against stud corner Richard Sherman.
Still, it wasn't an impressive fantasy day for Allen, but that was to be expected. The good news is now things get a lot easier for Allen and the passing game. The Bills are ranked 32nd in allowing fantasy points to WRs so this is a very friendly matchup for Allen, who could bust out a little this game after what's been a slow start the first two weeks against good defenses.
Still, he's ranked 18th among our WRs which makes him a lower-end WR2 in typical leagues. Straight through Week 8 all involve matchups against defenses ranked 16th or lower in allowing points to WRs so Allen makes for at least a potential solid flex or WR3.
Week 2 vs. Seattle
Keenan Allen had five catches for 37 yards last week and was targeted nine times. It was a tough matchup as Allen saw Patrick Peterson a lot against the Cards.
This week isn't much better as the Seahawks come to town. Seattle is ranked third in allowing fantasy points to WRs so Allen's ranking takes a hit, making him more of a low-end WR3 option. QB Philip Rivers seemed to trust Malcom Floyd more and this is something to watch as the season goes on.
The good news for owners is Allen's matchups get easier from Week 3 through Week 8 so owners should stay patient through this tough stretch.
Fantasy Upside
Malcom Floyd returns from the neck injury he suffered last September but Danario Alexander has required "multiple" surgeries on his right knee and won't return this season. That means Allen better be ready to pick up where he left off. Allen was sensational as he set team records for rookie receivers in catches and receiving yards; he led the NFL among rookies in those categories as well. Vincent Brown seemed to take a step back, as he and Philip Rivers seldom got on the same page. Eddie Royal had a career-high eight touchdowns, despite battling a chronic toe injury. Can Allen carry the receiving corps? According to ESPN.com, that might be asking too much -- in part because Brown and Royal aren't imposing threats. That said, the development of speedy tight end Ladarius Green helps to mask some of the San Diego's deficiencies at receiver.
Fantasy Downside
We don't have a huge sample size or long history to put behind the high-end draft capital that will be required to secure his services this season.
Bottom Line
Despite a history of production -- and even for those who assume Allen has closed in on his ceiling, there's ample reason for optimism. For one, Allen worked hard to improve his speed this offseason. And even if he stays at his 2013 level, we'll all be pretty pleased. We can think of worse things than drafting him at a spot commiserate with last season's production and hoping for more.
