Week 11 vs. Buffalo Bills
Keenan Allen is just WR26 in PPR points to this point in the season and faces an above-average Bills defense in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. Plus, Buffalo is top-five in our aFPA vs. WR rankings. Allen averaged 10.2 targets in his first six games, but he has averaged just 6.3 targets over his past three games. However, two of those matchups were against Denver and Jacksonville. Consider Allen a WR2 this week in a less-than-ideal matchup.
Week 10 at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars are first in our aFPA vs. WR rankings and first in overall PPR points per game allowed to the position. It could not get any worse for Chargers receivers this week against Jalen Ramsey and company. This is a big downgrade week for Keenan Allen and owners should not expect much more than FLEX numbers from him, with the potential for even fewer points. That's how good the Jaguars' pass defense has been this season.
Week 8 at New England Patriots
This Chargers-Patriots game has the second-highest over/under in Vegas of Week 8 at 48 points, potentially foreshadowing a shootout. The Patriots rank 28th in our aFPA vs. WR rankings and have allowed the third-most PPR points per game to fantasy wideouts. Keenan Allen is averaging close to 10 targets per game. Fire him up as a WR1 in Week 8.
Week 7 vs. Denver Broncos
The Broncos are a tough matchup for wide receivers, ranking eighth in our aFPA vs. WR rankings. They also have allowed the seventh-fewest PPR points to the position. Allen managed to score Week 1, but only put up 35 yards on his 10 targets. Because of the tough matchup, Allen must be downgraded to a WR2 in Week 7.
Week 6 at Oakland Raiders
The Keenan Allen Comeback Tour continues against Oakland this week—a team he has not faced since Week 7 of the 2015 season. However, when you're averaging more than 10 targets per game, that's what really matters. The Raiders are also only 22nd in our aFPA vs. PPR WR rankings. Allen is a WR1 in Week 6.
Week 5 at New York Giants
It's a tough matchup for the Chargers receivers this week against a Giants defense ranked second in our aFPA vs. PPR WR rankings. It's also an early east coast kickoff for the Pacific time zone Chargers. However, Allen has at least 9 targets in every game this year. That alone should stabilize his floor this week as a WR2, but don't expect WR1 results in Week 5. If you get it, consider it a bonus.
Week 4 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Great matchup for Allen this week, as the Eagles are 27th in our aFPA vs. PPR WR rankings. Allen has averaged 9.7 targets per game and a 6.3-65-0.33 line. The Eagles have also allowed the fourth-most PPR points to opposing WRs, overall. Allen is a bonafide WR1 in Week 4. Start him.
Week 3 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Welcome back, Keenan Allen! When healthy, this guy has been awesome, and 2017 has been no different. He is the fantasy WR6 through two weeks in PPR leagues and is sixth in the NFL in targets. He gets the Chiefs at home this week, a team he scored 12.3 PPR points against last season. The Chiefs have actually allowed the 9th-most PPR points vs. fantasy WRs through two weeks. So, Allen is a solid WR1 in Week 3 again.
Week 2 vs. Miami Dolphins
Keenan Allen rewarded the faith owners put in him by fantasy owners in a tough Week 1 matchup at Denver with a 5-35-1 line. The Dolphins were also top-10 in PPR points allowed to fantasy WRs last season. Consider Allen a high-end WR2 with low-end WR1 upside in Week 2.
Week 1 at Denver Broncos
Keenan Allen has faced the vaunted Broncos secondary, headlined by cornerbacks Aqib Talib and Chris Harris Jr., but you have to go back to 2014 to find the small sample. In those two games, Allen managed 12 receptions for 91 yards and 1 touchdown on 21 targets. Expect Allen to be a primary target again, but those numbers were before Allen suffered multiple season-ending injuries. It would also be foolish to not acknowledge he's facing a secondary that was first in PPR points allowed to receivers last season, with 11 games of not allowing a wide receiver touchdown and only once allowing more than one (on the road against Drew Brees and the Saints). For these reasons, we can only consider Allen as a low-end WR2/FLEX in PPR leagues to start the season.
