Fantasy Upside
Keenan Allen is a bona fide star when he is on the field—something that's been an issue now for two straight seasons. Allen, who has played just nine games the past two seasons due to injury, suffered a torn ACL during last year’s season opener against the Kansas City Chiefs in which he caught six passes for 63 yards in the opening half. Still, the talented youngster had established himself as one of the top receivers in the NFL before his latest injury. By all accounts, however, Allen looked quick and explosive during offseason work. If he can finally stay on the field the Cal product should put up monster numbers in 2017.
Fantasy Downside
The combination of Allen's special talent and Philip Rivers has proven to be tough to defend. But not if Allen can't run routes. He has missed a total of 25 games due to injury since the Chargers selected him in the third round of the 2013 draft.
2017 Bottom Line
If Allen can avoid a setback in training camp and the preseason, the Chargers will have the luxury of holding rookie first-round pick Mike Williams out until his back is fully recovered. With or without his top draft pick, Rivers figures to be directing one of the NFL's most dangerous offensive attacks this season and Allen, with his Pro Bowl skills, is in a position to be his most dangerous weapon. With his WR17 price, Allen has clear WR1 upside if healthy.
Week 1 at Kansas City
Keenan Allen was on pace for over 1,400 yards before an injury ended his season in Week 8. Allen had 67 catches for 725 and 4 TDs over the first eight games along with 89 targets. He three games where he had over 10 catches (15, 12, 14) in that same span.
Allen actually gets a friendly matchup, on paper at least, in Week 1 against the Chiefs. KC was 32nd in allowing fantasy points to WRs in 2015. Ironically, Allen missed both games against the Chiefs last year. He last suited up against KC in Week 7 of 2014 where he had a line of 6-58-0 (10). Allen comes in ranked 10th on our list this week and is a must play on the road. It's expected the SD run game will struggle in this contest so Allen could benefit.
Fantasy Upside
No surprise here, but the Chargers locked Keenan Allen up this offseason with a four-year contract extension worth more than $44 million. The deal ensures that both Allen and Philip Rivers will be under team control through at least the 2019 season. Allen's contract runs through 2020. If he continues to perform, this big contract won't be his last. Selected in the third round of the 2013 NFL Draft out of Cal, Allen compiled 1,046 receiving yards and eight TDs. He posted 725 receiving yards and four touchdowns over eight games in a 2015 campaign limited by injury. As NFL.com reminded readers, prior to suffering lacerated kidney on Nov. 1, Allen had a stunning 67 receptions on the season, which tied him for third most in NFL history over an eight-game span behind Julio Jones and Marvin Harrison. More importantly, the Chargers had the NFL's No. 1 offense in the eight games with Allen. In the eight without, they ranked 24th, their average yards per game falling from 423.3 to 320.4, a difference of 102.9.
Fantasy Downside
Allen's 2015 season ended when he was placed on injured reserve with a lacerated kidney on Nov. 3, which followed a hip flexor injury in October. While the missed time certainly was a limiting factor in his touchdown production, he wasn't all that impressive in that department in 2014 either (he finished with just four TDs on 77 catches that season after hauling in three TDs on 71 catches as a rookie). In addition, Allen's 11.9-yard average per catch for his career won't scare a ton of free safeties, but that's what the Chargers brought in Travis Benjamin to provide.
2016 Bottom Line
Healthy (he was working in OTAs) and still only 24 years old, Allen is one of the most talented possession receivers in the game. With the offensive line improved and upgrades around him, other than the retirement of Malcom Floyd, look for Allen to turn in a career year, blowing away his rookie marks of 1,046 yards and eight touchdowns back in 2013.
Week 8 at Baltimore
Keenan Allen caught nine balls for 89 yards last week on 13 targets. Over the last three weeks, he's been targeted 38 times, which is an average of over 12 a game. This week, it's a great matchup against the Ravens who are 31st in allowing fantasy points to WRs. Baltimore is much better against the run and with the Bolts run game struggling anyway, they may take to the air yet again. Philip Rivers is averaging over 50 attempts the last three weeks. Allen comes in as a lower-end WR1 this week with a very good chance to continue what has been a productive fantasy season. Allen went for 11-121-2 last year in Week 13 game against Baltimore.
Week 7 at Oakland
Keenan Allen was on his way to another monster game last week before a hip injury took him off the field. Allen caught 14 balls for 157 yards on 15 targets. Be sure to keep an eye on Allen's status for this week's game against the Raiders. Oakland is 10th in allowing fantasy points to WRs, so it's not a great matchup, but Allen is having a nice season outside of a clunker in Week 2. The hip injury could limit him, but he's still a top-10 play as of now.
Week 6 at Green Bay
Keenan Allen caught six balls for 57 yards in Week 5. He was targeted 10 times however, so Philip Rivers is still looking to get him the ball.
It wasn't a great day for Allen owners, but that's been the case for much of his career. This was his second least productive output this season. However, this week is a matchup with a little more potential. The Packers are 16th in fantasy points allowed to WRs, but one has to assume some points are going to be scored in this game and the Chargers, on the road, could be the ones trying to keep pace. A game like that would be good news for Allen, who is ranked as a low-end WR1 at 11th on our WR list.
Week 5 vs Pittsburgh
Keenan Allen continued his hot play in 2015 by collecting four catches for 72 yards and a TD last week. It was his third TD of the season.
It came in a tough matchup against the Browns, despite his receptions and targets being down from some of his other bigger games from this season. Hopefully for owners, Allen is back to his consistent ways from his rookie season. This week, it's a much better matchup as the Steelers are 23rd in allowing fantasy points to WRs. Given Pittsburgh is tough against the run, passing may be in the game plan this week for the Chargers and so Allen is a low-end WR1 option and should continue to be in lineups.
Week 4 vs Cleveland
Keenan Allen had another monster game in Week 3, catching 12 passes for 133 yards and two TDs, while being targeted 18 times. He's sandwiched two nice performances around a clunker in Week 2, so owners are sill holding their breath in terms what what they can expect every week from Allen. This week, the Browns are the matchup at home, but rank ninth in allowing fantasy points to WRs. Cleveland appears much more vulnerable against the run, so that may be the point of attack for the Bolts this week. Still, Allen is a high-end WR2 play who should be in lineups.
Week 3 at Minnesota
After a monster Week 1, Allen collected just two catches for 16 yards and also fumbled in Week 2. Owners likely have no idea what to expect from Allen. The good news is we're still optimistic he'll contribute solid WR2 numbers. He comes in ranked 15th on our WR list in what is a tough matchup on the road. The Vikes are better against the pass, ranking sixth in allowing fantasy points to WRs. Running the ball will likely be a focal point in the Bolts offense this week. But, Allen should still be somewhat of a factor in the passing game.
Week 2 at Cincinnati
Week 1 was the moment Keenan Allen owners have been waiting for for a while. Allen exploded for 15 receptions and 166 yards on 17 targets. Those are the type of WR1 numbers owners have been expecting, going back to his rookie year.
This week's matchup is a bit tougher as the Bengals are third in fantasy points allowed to WRs. But Allen comes in ninth on our list, which is a low-end WR1. Fantasy owners should be encouraged about how the team used Allen in Week 1, moving him around and throwing some short passes to him out of the slot to create mismatches. This week will be a big test and using Allen as a WR3 where he was likely drafted, should be a nice way to utilize him in Week 2.
