Week 1 vs Detroit
Keenan Allen was a frustrating fantasy receiver last year. Coming off a solid rookie campaign, owners were disappointed with what was a very slow start in 2014. Allen came later in the season as he put together three good weeks from Week 11-13, but then crushed owners the following two weeks before getting hurt.
Allen is once again given the benefit of the doubt and is ranked as a mid-range WR2 at 18th heading into Week 1 against the Lions. Detroit was 12th last season in fantasy points allowed to WRs, so it's certainly not a great matchup. While Allen is the team's top target, one can argue Malcom Floyd was much more consistent and dependable, and Chargets team also added Stevie Johnson in the offseason. It's hard to trust Allen coming into this game, but considering where owners drafted him, he almost has to be in your lineup.
Fantasy Upside
Selected in the third round of the 2013 draft by the Chargers, it's hard to believe that Allen, who missed the last two games of the 2014 season with a broken collarbone and an ankle injury, is just 23 years old. Allen led all rookies in 2013 and set a team record with 1,046 receiving yards and 71 catches during the regular season, becoming (at the time) just the fifth rookie since 2000 to eclipse 1,000 receiving yards. Over two years, Allen has averaged 74 receptions for 915 yards and six touchdowns a season. He can improve on those numbers with more consistent play, along with developing a better rapport with Philip Rivers.
Fantasy Downside
One concern? Allen averaged just 10.2 yards per reception in 2014, so he did not create as many explosive plays as he did his rookie season, when he averaged 14.7 yards per reception.
Bottom Line
Coaches could try to free Allen up this season by lining him up in the slot. New Charger Stevie Johnson is also capable of playing the slot, but ESPN.com's Eric Williams contends Allen is a serious bounce-back candidate and threat for 90-plus catches in his third year. If that's the case, Allen's low-end WR2 ADP puts him in line to outperform his draft position.
Week 15 - Allen vs. Denver
Keenan Allen crushed fantasy owners last week with a two-catch, three-yard performance. He was targeted just three times and the Pats did a good job of taking him out of the game, as we thought might be the case.
This week it's the Bronocs. Back in Week 8, Allen put up a 9-73-1 line against Denver. The Broncos are 22nd in allowing points to WRs so this is a solid matchup for Allen owners who are still alive this week. It's tough to trust him, but he had played well coming into last week's contest and there's always the possibility this turns into a high-scoring game. Allen makes for a decent WR3 option.
Week 14 - Allen vs. New England
Keenan Allen continued his torrid pace over the last three games, adding 11 catches for 121 yards and two TDs last week as the Bolts had to come from behind to knock off Baltimore.
Last week was a pretty favorable matchup coming in as teams tend to struggle to run the ball on the Ravens, so after falling behind Rivers and company took to the air. The matchup is more difficult this week as teams tend to struggle to throw the ball on the Patriots. Allen could very well see a lot of Darrelle Revis this week and the Pats have always been good at taking away whomever they chose from an opponents' offense.
So, the Pats could very well choose to take away the red-hot Allen who has averaged a line of 8-95-1 over the last three weeks. He's also averaged 13 targets in that span. He comes in ranked 20th this week despite those numbers.
Week 13 - Allen vs. Baltimore
Owners of Keenan Allen finally got what they were looking for last week as Allen busted out for six catches, 104 yards and his second TD of the year. All came on nine targets. It was only his second 100-yard game of the season, and his first since Week 4 against Jacksonville when he went for 10-135. It was his first TD since Week 8 against Denver.
This week's matchup appears to be another favorable one, as teams that can't run against the Ravens end up taking to the air. Baltimore is near the bottom of the league in allowing fantasy points to WRs as a result. Allen still has fantasy consistency issues and comes with risks, but can at least be used as a solid WR3 option who's seeing over 10 targets per game over his last five.
Week 12 - Allen vs. St. Louis
Last week, Keenan Allen caught eight balls for 63 yards on 13 targets. Allen has averaged over 11 targets the last four games but outside of that the fantasy production just hasn't been what owners hoped for when drafting back in summer.
This week, Allen gets a much better matchup, taking on the Rams who are ranked 24th in allowing fantasy points to WRs. Still, Allen comes in ranked 31st this week, so even in a good matchup he's just a high-end WR4 in a 10-team league. His ranking likely also takes a hit thanks to news about a potential rib injury for QB Philip Rivers.
Week 11 - Allen vs. Oakland
Coming off a big game vs. Denver in Week 8, many thought Keenan Allen was back, but the whole team threw out a clunker in Week 9 in Miami before the bye. Allen finished with just four catches for 47 yards but did have nine targets.
Allen takes on Oakland this week, but when you play the Raiders there isn't always a lot of need to throw the ball. So, Allen falls to a WR3 this week outside of our top-20. He just hasn't been a good play and because of the matchup remains risky even against the Raiders. The good news is he's averaging over 10 targets per game his last three contests, so those continue to climb.
Week 9 - Allen vs. Miami
Keenan Allen may be starting to show signs of life. He finished with nine catches for 73 yards and a TD last week as the Bolts were trying to keep pace with the Broncos. He was targeted a season-high 13 times in the game.
Allen now has 15 catches and 23 targets his last two games. This week's matchup is a tough one as Miami is 10th in allowing fantasy points to WRs and fifth allowing fantasy points to QBs. Allen comes in as a low-end WR2 this week on our list. Despite some life lately, it's tough to trust him, but as a low-end WR2 or high-end WR3 you may be able to live with that, and he could surprise a little.
Week 8 - Allen vs. Denver
Last week Keenan Allen caught six balls for 58 yards on 10 targets. It was the most in each category since Week 4 when Allen went off for 10-135-0-11 against the Jags.
Allen hasn't been a safe play this year outside of that big Week 4. And this week it's the Broncos who rank 15th in aFPA to WRs. In the recent past, the Bolts have tried to use a running game to keep Peyton Manning off the field and keep the game close. If that doesn't work and they have to play catch-up, Allen could be looking at a big day. But we have our doubts, ranking Allen just 30th on our list of WRs, which is low-end WR3 in a ten-team league.
Week 7 - Allen vs. Kansas City
Keenan Allen caught just three balls for 27 yards last week on six targets. He played 97% of the snaps but just hasn't put it together this season outside of one game against the Jags.
This week it's the Chiefs, who are again an average matchup for Allen and the Bolts. It appears after six weeks that QB Philip Rivers is looking elsewhere in the red zone as Allen is without a TD catch this season. This week Allen is ranked 28th on our list making him a WR3 play in typical leagues. He's just not a safe play right now.
