Week 5 vs. Denver Broncos
Through 4 Weeks, Keenan Allen is the standard, half and full PPR WR1. He has 34 receptions on 47 targets for 452 yards, three touchdowns, 32% of the team targets, and 40% of the team air yards.
Allen draws a difficult matchup against a good Broncos secondary. They are sixth-best against wide receivers, per our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. Regardless of the matchup, Allen is a must-start. 4for4 rankings expert John Paulsen has Allen ranked as a half PPR WR4 this week.
Week 4 at Miami Dolphins
Through 3 Weeks, Keenan Allen has 29 receptions on 42 targets for 404 yards, three touchdowns, 36% of the team targets, and 46% of the team air yards. You might want to read those numbers again because they are absurdly high. Allen will look to continue his dominance against the Dolphins who are 13th worst against wide receivers, per our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric.
Allen is a must-start in all league formats. 4for4 rankings expert John Paulsen has Allen ranked as the Half PPR WR1. His median projection is currently five points higher than the next receiver, Julio Jones.
Week 3 vs. Houston Texans
Keenan Allen’s usage through two weeks is skyrocketing off the charts. He has 16 receptions on 25 targets for 221 yards, one touchdown, 36% of the team targets, and 55% of the team air yards. He didn’t find the endzone against the Lions' top cornerback, Darius Slay, but still finished as the PPR WR16 with 17.8 fantasy points against.
Allen is a must-start in all league formats against the Texans in Week 3. Allen should play primarily out of the slot and will matchup against Bradley Roby. Traditionally, Roby is an outside cornerback but he will be forced into the slot this week because the Texans released their starting slot corner, Aaron Colvin, due to bad performances in the first two weeks. 4for4 rankings expert John Paulsen has Allen ranked as the PPR WR4.
Week 2 at Detroit Lions
Keenan Allen absolutely crushed the Colts in Week 1. He finished as the Half PPR WR9 with 22.3 fantasy points. Allen had eight receptions on 10 targets, 123 yards, one touchdown, 29% of the team targets, and 50% of the team air yards.
Philip Rivers has a history of attempting short, high percentage passes to slot receivers and the trend continued into Week 1. Rivers finished with the tenth lowest average depth of target, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Additionally, the Lions defense gave up 145 combined receiving yards to Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk who played primarily out of the slot. Allen is the main slot receiver for the Chargers and can act as a release valve for Rivers when he is under pressure. 4for4 rankings expert John Paulsen has Allen ranked as the Half PPR WR8 and he gains value in full PPR leagues. He is a must-start in all league formats.
Week 1 vs. Indianapolis Colts
On August 15, ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported Keenan Allen suffered an ankle injury which kept him sidelined during the preseason. Luckily, Allen did not appear on the Week 1 team injury report and will play against the Indianapolis Colts. 4for4’s rankings expert John Paulsen has Allen as the PPR WR7 in Week 1 with a median projection of 17.0 fantasy points. The Colts defense schemes toward playing zone coverage so look for Allen to play primarily in the slot and settle into the underneath holes created by zone coverage. Overall, the matchup will be tough for Allen, as shown by our signature schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric that has the Colts ranked sixth-best against wide receivers, but he is still projected to finish as a top 12 wide receiver. Allen is a safe start in all fantasy formats.
Fantasy Upside
It's hard to find negatives when it comes to Keenan Allen. The lone issue, health, has not really been a negative over the last two years, as Allen did not miss a game in either 2017 or 2018. He's been super-productive in those two seasons with 97 receptions in 2018 and 102 catches two years ago. As ESPN's Mike Clay reminded readers, back in 2017, Allen played 84% of the snaps, ran a route on 91% of the team's pass plays and handled a 28% target share. Excluding a Thursday night Week 15 game last season, in which he suffered an early hip injury, Allen was on the field for 85% of the Chargers' snaps and 91% of the pass plays and handled a 28% target share. According to CBSSports.com, he's caught 68% of his targets over his career and averaged better than 12 yards per catch each of the past two seasons. How about that for consistency?
Fantasy Downside
Concerns? With Mike Williams entering his third season after a breakout 2018 campaign and tight end Hunter Henry now healthy, Philip Rivers might spread the ball around a bit more in 2019.
2019 Bottom Line
While they might get some additional looks, Williams and Henry should also take a bit of pressure off Allen by making it more difficult for opposing defenses to shut him down. It might even lead to more touchdowns for the veteran, which hasn't been his strong suit. Whatever the case, Allen's consistent, week-to-week production (he scored double-digit fantasy points in all but one complete game) is sufficient to keep him in WR1 territory for fantasy owners.
Week 19 at New England Patriots
The Chargers go west to east for the second consecutive week to take on the Patriots in New England with a trip to the AFC Championship game on the line. The Bolts have the second-lowest implied team total of the eight remaining teams, however, at just 21.5 points. New England ranks 19th in aFPA to WRs. However, Bill Belichick often takes away a teams best option in the passing game. Allen was held in check by New England last season. Allen remains a top 10 option, but unlikely to be a top-five option in the divisional round.
Week 17 at Denver Broncos
The Chargers offense will be at full strength in Week 17 with a chance to go from wild-card playoff team to home field advantage and playing against a potential lame duck coach in Denver's Vance Joseph. This is an offense to trust in the final week of the regular season, with an implied team total of 24 after being installed in Vegas as 6-point favorites. The Broncos are ranked third in aFPA to RBs, which could funnel more passes to Chargers receivers, with Denver ranked just 15th in aFPA to WRs. Keenan Allen posted 9-89-1 earlier this year against Denver. He's back to being a WR1 in Week 17.
Week 16 vs. Baltimore Ravens (Saturday)
Los Angeles hosts Baltimore on a short week with a chance to get its offense back to full strength, with the return of Melvin Gordon and possibly Keenan Allen. This game has a low over/under of 43.5 points, with the Chargers having an implied total of 23.75, lower than recent weeks against a strong Baltimore defense. The Ravens rank first in aFPA to WRs this season. Allen will be a game-time decision after leaving last week's game with a hip pointer. If active, you start him. In this tough match-up though, he's just a WR2.
Week 14 at Kansas City Chiefs (Thursday)
In a huge divisional showdown on Thursday night, the Chargers and Chiefs have the second highest over/under on the Week 15 slate, with Los Angeles still with an above average 24.75 implied total despite being road underdogs. The Chiefs rank just 17th in aFPA to WRs. Keenan Allen leads all receivers with 66 targets over the past six weeks. With Melvin Gordon expected to be sidelined again, Allen's huge target volume should continue, as should his recent WR1 status.
