Week 2 vs. Cowboys
It was only Week 1, but Keenan Allen looked to be in mid-season form against Washington. Allen commanded 12 targets against the Football Team, reeling in nine for 100 yards. Only two wide receivers caught more balls than Allen last week. He did most of his work, and therefore his damage, from the slot, where he caught six of his seven targets for 76 yards. The Cowboys were ripped apart by wide receivers in Week 1, giving up 17 receptions for 250 yards and two scores. The primary slot corner for the Cowboys is Jourdan Lewis, and as per PFF Lewis gave up four receptions for 64 yards a week ago. Allen and the Chargers wide receivers have the best matchup in the NFL according to our projections.
Week 1 vs. Washington
Keenan Allen was one of the NFL's premier target magnets a year ago, averaging 10.7 looks per game once Justin Herbert came into the lineup. Only Stefon Diggs and Davante Adams averaged more receptions per game after Week 2 than Allen, who gobbled up 7.4 a game for 73.5 yards. These numbers, combined with eight receiving touchdowns, were enough for Allen to finish as the WR6 in points per game in Half-PPR from Week 2 onwards. But as with his teammates, Allen has a difficult matchup to kickoff his 2021 campaign. In 2020, Washington allowed the third-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers, giving up the 10th fewest receptions across the league to the position. They were particularly brutal when it came to shutting down teams leading wide-outs. According to Football Outsiders, they gave up just 68 receiving yards per game to WR1s, against a league average of 69. Allen is staring at the third toughest matchup at the wide receiver position in Week 1 according to our projections. But Pro Football Focus does give Allen the 12th best matchup in terms of WR/CB in Week 1.
Fantasy Upside
If high-end consistency is your thing, Keenan Allen is your guy. The veteran wideout has at least 97 catches in each of the last four seasons. In 2020, Allen had 992 receiving yards and tied a career high with eight touchdowns in 14 games. While Allen was 12th in fantasy points among wide receivers, SI.com's Michael Fabiano notes he was seventh at the position in terms of his points per game average. Allen stepped up and was the favorite receiver for Justin Herbert, just like he was for Philip Rivers for so many years. In fact, Allen was even better in the 13 games he played with Herbert last season than he was without him, ranking fifth in fantasy points per game while leading all wideouts in targets per game (10.7). By the way, that consistency is long-standing. The Pro Football Hall of Fame is now displaying the jersey and gloves Allen used during the Chargers' Week 14 victory over the Falcons. In that game, Allen recorded his 623rd career reception while playing in his 99th game. He surpassed Antonio Brown (622 receptions in 100 games) for the most receptions by a player in NFL history in their first 100 contests.
Fantasy Downside
There's a change of coaching staff and new offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi is talking about Allen's teammate Mike Williams filling the "X" receiver role in the scheme he's bringing with him from New Orleans. That would be the same role Michael Thomas played for the Saints. A busier Williams could be a limiting factor on Allen. In addition, the Chargers will move the ball on the ground, and with talented pass-catching running backs, some of Allen's intermediate routes are no longer there
2021 Bottom Line
Don't panic over the downside. With Herbert working behind an upgraded offensive line, don't let the change in coaching staff worry you here. Allen remains a potential 100-catch, 10-touchdown receiver and a No. 1 fantasy wideout.
Week 16 vs Denver
Man, if you managed to start and survive the Keenan Allen debacle last week, more power to you. After much back and forth on his availability last week, Allen was expected to be on a pitch count for last Thursday night’s game against the Las Vegas Raiders, however that resulted in a one-catch for 17-yard performance. To make matters worse, Allen has yet to practice week and will be a true game-time decision heading into Sunday. It is an unfortunate way to end Allen’s best fantasy season, however given how last week transpired, fantasy managers should already have a contingency regardless of his status in Week 16.
If indeed you survived last week, then the adage of “Play your studs” goes out the window given we have already seen Allen’s incredibly low floor went not 100% healthy. Allen is the ultimate boom-or-bust WR2 in the championship game this week.
Week 15 at Las Vegas
Allen was back to his WR1 ways last week against the Atlanta Falcons as he caught 9-of-11 targets for 52 yards and one touchdown. This was a historic week for Allen as he became only the fourth WR in NFL history with four consecutive 95+ catch seasons (joining Antonio Brown, Jerry Rice and Marvin Harrison), and also broke the record for most receptions in first 100 career games with 623, moving past Brown’s 622.
Allen has been a beast all season and Week 15 brings his fantasy managers the gift of taking on the Las Vegas Raiders who rank 21st in aFPA to WRs. When Allen matched up against the Raiders for Week 9, he caught 9-of-11 targets for 103 yards and one touchdown—one of his best stat lines of the year. With Mike Williams set to be out with an injury in this one, Allen should see a bump in his already league-leading target share. In the fantasy football semifinals, expect elite WR1 production from Allen and even perhaps his best game of the season.
Week 14 vs Atlanta
Allen had his worst game of the season with Justin Herbert under center as he had five receptions for 48 yards. Even in this poor performance Allen still saw 12 targets, however, the constant pressure Herbert faced all game coupled with a clear focus of New England defense to phase out Allen all but neutralized the usual WR1. Even after this rough outing, Allen’s production remains amongst the elite WRs in the league as his 133 targets and 90 receptions lead the NFL.
Week 14 brings the ultimate bounce-back opportunity as the Atlanta Falcons are ranked 29th in aFPA to WRs this season. Allen has been a revelation this season given not many analysts gave him a chance to succeed without Phillip Rivers. Rather, Allen has been flourishing with the rookie Herbert and is well on his way to having a career year. Taking on one of the league’s worst secondaries in the opening round of the fantasy playoffs, Allen is teed up to have an elite WR1 day against the Falcons.
Week 13 vs New England
Allen had a solid game last week against Buffalo as he saw 10 targets which he turned into four receptions for 40 yards and one touchdown. In a game that saw Austin Ekeler return to the tune of a team-high 16 targets, Allen was still very much involved in this offense. Fantasy managers shouldn’t be concerned with Ekeler’s workload, as the passing volume in this LA Chargers offense is one of the highest in the league, and it would make sense for the target share to mostly go to Allen and Ekeler.
Week 13 brings a stiff matchup in the New England Patriots who currently rank 10th in aFPA to WRs this season. Taking on arguably the league’s premier lockdown corner in Stephon Gillmore, Allen will be tested once again, however his talent and target volume have made him virtually matchup proof to this point. Unlike past seasons, Allen’s newfound touchdown success has made him a weekly WR1 coupled with his targets. Allen has scored a touchdown in each of the last five games and his seven total touchdowns this season make him almost guaranteed to shatter his career-high of eight in his rookie year. Keep Allen plugged in as a high-end WR1 this week.
Week 12 at Buffalo
After a lackluster performance in Week 10, Allen had his best game of the season last week against the New York Jets, setting season-highs in receptions and yards as he caught 16 balls for 145 yards and one touchdown. His 19 targets tied a season-high and Allen looked as unstoppable as ever. Allen and Justin Herbert are operating on a nearly unstoppable plane right now and Allen is locked in as an every-week WR1.
Week 12 brings a stiff matchup in the Buffalo Bills as they rank eighth in aFPA to WRs this season. Allen has proven to be productive in even the most difficult matchups, so fantasy managers should continue to start Allen with confidence as an elite WR1.
Week 11 vs New York Jets
Allen had a very uncharacteristic game last week against Miami, with just three receptions for 39 yards and one touchdown. In a game where none of the Charger WRs could get anything going, Allen saw a season-low seven targets, which is the first time this season he’s failed to see double-digit targets in a fully healthy game.
With brighter days on the horizon, Allen will take on the New York Jets in Week 11, who are currently ranked 22nd in aFPA to WRs this season. An ideal scenario for a rebound game for Allen, he should continue to see a steady amount of volume and should be trusted as a high-end WR1 this week, as he either had 100 receiving yards or one touchdown in every game this season.
Week 10 at Miami
Keenan Allen did in Week 9 what Keenan Allen does every week—gobble up targets. Allen saw 11 targets last week against the Raiders in which he turned into nine receptions for 103 yards and one touchdown. This marks the sixth-consecutive healthy game Allen has seen double-digit targets from Justin Herbert, as he has remained the sensational rookie’s go-to target. Very comparable to Green Bay’s Davante Adams, Allen is in an ideal situation where his talent coupled with a massive amount of targets coming from excellent QB play make him a weekly WR1 in fantasy.
Week 10 has Allen taking on the Miami Dolphins who are ranked 17th in aFPA to WRs this season. Proven to be matchup-proof at this point, Allen will continue to be a solid WR1 in all leagues with elite WR1 status in PPR leagues.
