Week 12 at Arizona Cardinals
Keenan Allen finally returned to the field for the Chargers in Week 11 and immediately resumed his role as Justin Herbert's safety blanket. Allen saw nine targets against the Chiefs and caught five balls for 94 yards. These were easily season highs, and Allen's deeds saw him earn 9.9 Half PPR points. He finished as the WR30 in Week 11.
As good as it was to see him back, he's unlikely to be a fantasy superstar in Week 12. The Cardinals rank sixth in aFPA to wide receivers this season, despite sitting ninth in receptions allowed to wideouts in 2022. Still, Allen should see a healthy dose of targets, and it's hard not to project him as a WR2 in the week ahead.
Week 11 vs Kansas City Chiefs
For just the third time this season, the Chargers look set to include Keenan Allen in their game day lineup. Allen has seen just six targets all season, but has caught them all for 77 yards.
It’s a fairly friendly matchup for Allen’s return. The Chiefs rank 28th in aPFA to wide receivers, and in his career Allen averages more than six catches and 72 yards per game against them. He’s a mid range WR2 if he’s healthy. But it’s quite a big if.
Week 7 vs Seattle Seahawks
Keenan Allen looks set to return to action for the Chargers for the first time since he left Week 1 after just 22 snaps.
If Allen does return, he faces a tricky game against the Seahawks, As bad as they've been on the ground, they rank third in aFPA to wide receivers this season. Allen should be viewed as a low-end WR2 in his first action for six weeks.
Week 4 at Houston Texans
Keenan Allen is set to return to the Chargers lineup for Week 4. Allen left the Week 1 win over the Raiders and missed Weeks 2 and 3. He caught four of four targets for 66 yards in Week 1 on just 22 offensive snaps. Allen should be able to provide Justin Herbert with a safety valve he has sadly lacked over the last two games.
The Texans are ranked 24th in aFPA to wide receivers through the first three weeks of the season. Still, the shaky nature of the Chargers' current passing game makes Allen an extremely low-ceiling option. He should be viewed as a low-end WR3 this week.
Week 3 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Keenan Allen missed the game against the Chiefs in Week 2 after suffering a hamstring injury in the season opener. He caught all four of his targets for 66 yards despite only playing 22 snaps against the Raiders. It was clear that he was still the apple of his quarterback's eye, and would continue to command targets even with the other pass-catching options the Chargers possess.
Allen looks like he could be good to return this week, and as such his presence should affect the ceiling of both Mike Williams and Josh Palmer.
Week 1 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Keenan Allen was reliable, if not spectacular, as a fantasy performer in 2021, finishing as the WR14 in Half-PPR formats for the second straight year. Allen went over 1,100 receiving yards for the fourth time in five seasons while catching a career-high 106 passes. He only posted four weeks as a WR1 however, and only found the end zone six times. He has six touchdown scores exactly in four of the last five seasons.
The fantasy wide receivers didn't have it all their own way against the Raiders in 2021, only averaging 24.8 Half PPR points per game against them. This was the fifth lowest across the entire league. We have Allen projected to finish as a mid-tier WR2 in Week 1.
2022 Fantasy Upside
As Pro Football Network put it, "Are you a fan of consistency? What about route-running savants who specialize in mid-phase separation? Perhaps a dash of age-adjusted value and a side helping of over a 25 percent target share from an elite quarterback? If you answered 'yes,' Keenan Allen is still your cup of tea." It's a fair assessment. Since 2017, Allen has averaged 102 catches for 1,184 yards and just over six touchdowns. He's also played in 78 of 81 regular-season games during that time span. He has at least 135 targets in five straight years, with four seasons of 100 or more receptions and at least 1,100 receiving yards. In those campaigns, Allen has recorded 26 percent of the team targets and 47 percent of the team's wide receiver targets. This past season, Allen broke the franchise's single-season receptions record -- which had already belonged to him -- with 106. He did that last season even with fellow starter Mike Williams setting a single-season career high with 1,146 receiving yards.
2022 Fantasy Downside
According to 4for4's John Paulsen, "The only real concern is his age (30), but Allen is good enough to continue to produce into his mid-30s."
2022 Bottom Line
Remember: Williams and Allen both went over 1,000 yards in a season for the second time together last year. The first was in 2019. Williams finished ninth in the NFL in receiving touchdowns (9) and 11th in yards per reception (15.1). With Justin Herbert’s emergence as an elite producer at quarterback, Allen will still be in line for his 130 targets, 100 receptions, 1,000 yards and six touchdowns even if Williams gains ground.
Week 17 vs. Broncos
In what was overall a bad game for the Chargers in Week 16, Keenan Allen endured his least productive game of the 2021 season. Allen was targeted just six times, his second-fewest in a game this year, tied a season-low with four receptions and posted just 35 yards. Allen scored 5.5 half-PPR points, his lowest this season and lowest since he scored 2.1 in Week 16 of the 2020 season. Still, Allen is the WR11 overall in 2021.
It'll be tough for Allen to bounce back this week against the Broncos, given how stingy they have been to fantasy wide receivers in 2021. The Broncos rank 5th in aFPA to fantasy wideouts. Treat Allen as a high-end WR2 this week, based on his target share hopefully jumping back to where it usually is.
Week 16 vs. Texans
Keenan Allen played in Week 15, so unsurprisingly he saw ten targets - his ninth double-digit target game of 2021- and caught six passes for 78 yards. Allen also found the endzone, giving him three touchdowns in his last two games. Allen posted 16.8 Half PPR points in Week 15, good for the WR10 on the week while pushing him up to WR11 for the year.
Allen is another smash spot in Week 16 against a Texans team that has been quite unable to spot wide receivers taking fantasy points off them. The Texans rank 30th in aFPA to wideouts in 2021, making Allen a likely visitor into the top 12 wide receiver air space this week.
Week 15 vs. Chiefs
Keenan Allen missed the Chargers Week 14 win over the Giants due to COVID-19 protocols. He has 86 receptions for 929 yards and four touchdowns in 2021 and is the WR14 in Half PPR formats.
Allen may need to see his usual large target share to deliver in fantasy terms this week against the Chiefs, Kansas City ranks 3rd in aFPA to wide receivers in 2021. But Allen has double-digit targets in eight games this season and only one game with less than eight. He can be trusted as a high-end WR2 in Week 15.
