Week 3 at Los Angeles Rams
Proceed cautiously with the Chargers offense this week, despite the fact that they lit up the Chiefs and Bills in the first two weeks of the season. The Rams defense is most certainly not the Chiefs or Bills. A low implied team total of 20.5 points is also cause for concern. Keenan Allen's second-longest active streak of 5+ catches in nine straight games will be tested against a tough Rams secondary. The Rams are first in fantasy points allowed to WRs, with less than 60 yards given up to the position each of the first two games, with no touchdowns. Granted, it was against Derek Carr and Sam Bradford at QB, but Allen has to be downgraded from his usual WR1 status in Week 3.
Week 2 at Buffalo Bills
The Bills lost 47-3 to the Ravens last week. Sooooooo, yeah. Start your Chargers. Keenan Allen kicked butt in Week 1 against the Chiefs, torching them for 8-108-1 on 11 targets. This week should be no different against a Bills secondary that allowed three touchdowns a receivers in Week 1. One starting CB got banged up for Buffalo last week and the other got torched. Allen is locked in as a WR1 again this week.
Week 1 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chargers have the sixth-highest implied team total in Vegas this week at 25.75 points. The Chiefs were dead last a season ago in aFPA to WRs. Fire up Keenan Allen with high confidence. He's locked in as a top-10 receiver this week.
Fantasy Upside
A year after spending most of the season on the sideline, watching Philip Rivers throw the most interceptions of his career and watching his team limp to a 5-11 record, Allen is back at the center of the franchise's future. Allen's 2017 journey back to redemption received its topper when he was named the NFL's Comeback Player of the Year. He rebounded from his six-catch, 63-yard 2016 season that ended with a torn ACL by catching 102 passes for 1,393 yards and six touchdowns last year. He made history during the season as well, becoming the first player ever to record three straight games of at least 10 receptions, 100 receiving yards, and one touchdown. Allen's return provided the Chargers with a big-play, field-stretching element that was missing the previous season.
Fantasy Downside
Allen has missed significant time to injuries; as noted above, he missed 15 games with a torn ACL in 2016 and he missed eight games in 2015 due to a lacerated kidney. So while the missed time has been significant, there hasn't been a chronic issue we should be wary of here.
2018 Bottom Line
All in all, Allen's contributions were more than sufficient to move him back to the top of the fantasy ranks. But could he do even more this year? It's possible. The Chargers ran three-receiver sets on 584 offensive snaps last season, No. 20 in the NFL, according to ESPN Stats & Information. The Chargers used at least two tight ends on 374 offensive snaps last season, No. 8 in the league. This year, with Hunter Henry (ACL) out and last year's first-round selection Mike Williams expected to contribute at the start of the year, expect the number of three-receiver sets to go up in 2018, and the number of two-TE sets to decline.
Given all this, it's worth noting that Allen had the third-most receiving yards and fifth-most catches among wide receivers between the numbers last season. Allen could replace some of the production lost by Henry over the middle of the field. And the busier he is, the happier those landing him will be.
Week 17 vs. Oakland Raiders
The Chargers are fighting for a playoff spot, which means you can safely start your fantasy options for this team in Week 17. Keenan Allen faces an Oakland defense that is just 24th in aFPA to WRs. However, the Raiders have been extremely stout against WRs over the past four weeks, surrendering no touchdowns to the position and the second-fewest yards. Given the Week 17 landscape and Allen's heavy target share, you'd be crazy to bench him.
Week 16 at New York Jets
The Chargers go cross-country to face the Jets, with the season on the line for Los Angeles. The Chargers are a 6.5-point favorite with an implied team total just over 24 points this week in Vegas. The Jets are only 27th against WRs in aFPA, and Keenan Allen has been practicing this week, despite a scare with his back last week. The loss of Hunter Henry at TE only means the potential for more volume with Allen, too. Start him, as usual, in Week 16.
Week 15 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chargers are red hot and go into Kansas City in a game Saturday that will greatly decide the division race. The Chiefs are second-worst against WRs in aFPA, and Keenan Allen could explode in Week 15. He's recorded four straight games with 100 yards, averaging 29.5 PPR points over that stretch. Kansas City has tightened up its secondary in the last four weeks, allowing just the 15th-most yards to receivers in that span and only one touchdown, but the Chargers' offense is too hot to get cute with Keenan Allen. He's an elite fantasy WR in Week 15.
Week 14 vs. Washington Redskins
The Chargers have the second-highest implied team total this weekend in Vegas at 26.25 points, and Washington is only 18th in aFPA to WRs. Let's get real. Keenan Allen has three straight weeks of 10+ receptions, 100+ yards, and has scored four touchdowns in that span. Start him and enjoy the production. He's an elite WR1 right now.
Week 13 vs. Cleveland Browns
The Chargers are surging with 82 points in their last two games, and now they get a revenge game against the lowly Browns, as the Chargers were the only team Cleveland beat last year. The Chargers have the highest implied team total of the week at 28.75 points. Only Antonio Brown has more points over the past two weeks than Keenan Allen, and the Chargers had extra prep time for this game after playing on Thanksgiving. Start Allen and enjoy the continued hot streak.
Week 12 at Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys present a plus matchup on Thanksgiving, as Dallas is just 27th in overall fantasy points allowed to the position and 25th in aFPA against running backs. This game also has the third-highest over/under in Vegas for Week 12. We could be looking at a shootout. Plus, Keenan Allen showed he's still more than capable of exploiting inferior secondaries last week and is averaging more than 9 targets per game. Start him with confidence as a WR1.
