Scott Smith’s Best bets for UFC Vegas 74: Kara-France vs Albazi
All fighters are on weight for the most recent UFC Fight Night at the Apex. Kai Kara-France and Amir Albazi headline another card lacking in star power. The UFC has struggled in 2023 at keeping fights on cards. That again is the case here with a couple of late-notice replacements. A number of fighters are making their debuts and will seemingly be at a disadvantage on Saturday night. We will target one of them in this week’s parlay as we attempt to make it five wins in a row.
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UFC Vegas 74 Best Bets
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Parlay of the Week Jim Miller and Tim Elliott to win (-150, DraftKings)
Fight Breakdown: Jim Miller vs. Jesse Butler
One of the late replacements for this card features the experienced Jim Miller against the newcomer Jesse Butler. This fight showcases the largest experience gap in UFC history. Butler stepped in as a replacement for Jared Gordon on short notice. It's worth noting that Butler has primarily competed against low-level opponents outside of the UFC. While he secured a recent win in LFA, most of his victories have come against fighters who will never compete in the UFC. The same can be said for his losses. It is impressive that Butler managed to make weight with only two days' notice, but this could also have consequences for him.
Miller, although nearing the end of his career, embodies professionalism and consistently brings his best to every fight. With his wealth of experience, he can outmaneuver most younger fighters. Despite Butler having eight wins by submission, Miller will hold the advantage in jiu-jitsu. Additionally, Miller possesses superior technical striking and should be able to dictate the exchanges in this fight. It's a demanding task for a debutant fighter on short notice to face a future Hall of Famer like Miller, and it is likely to be overwhelming for Butler.
Fight Breakdown: Tim Elliott vs. Victor Altamirano
Tim Elliott has recently made headlines due to personal revelations involving his wife and a former training partner. During media sessions, he has emphasized his renewed focus on his family and fighting. Elliott's toughness is evident as he sets a relentless pace from the start, relying on pressure and wrestling. His wrestling frequently leads to scrambles, allowing Elliott to control positions or return the fight to a standing position. Elliott's striking style is difficult to prepare for, as he employs unorthodox angles and entries.
Altamirano is agile on his feet and fights within his skill set. He demonstrates patience in his attacks and often overwhelms opponents with volume. His best chance of success lies in keeping the fight standing and controlling the striking exchanges. Although Altamirano has improved his takedown defense, he will still face a disadvantage against Elliott in that area. While Altamirano rarely settles for unfavorable positions when the fight goes to the mat, he will struggle to win scrambles against Elliott. I anticipate Elliott dictating the pace and applying relentless pressure in the first two rounds. Altamirano is less effective when forced to strike while retreating. Additionally, Altamirano has a tendency to duck off to the side when evading strikes, a habit that a seasoned veteran like Elliott is likely to exploit by varying his attacks. Elliott has faced tougher competition compared to Altamirano, but he has also shown a tendency to fade in later rounds due to his early pressure. I predict Elliott to emerge as the winner, although if Altamirano is to secure a victory, it will likely be in the later stages of the fight.
Risk: 1 unit on DraftKings to win 1.2 units (Playable down to +110)
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