Scott Smith’s Top Plays for UFC Vegas 90: Allen vs Curtis 2
Brendan Allen looks to avenge a knockout loss to Chris Curtis at the Apex this week. Since that fight, these fighters have gone in different directions, with Allen reeling off six wins in a row and “Action Man” going 3-2 with an NC. Other fights on this card are typical for an Apex event, with a number of fighters making their UFC debuts. This card will offer a bit of variance across bookmakers, and DFS slates as a number of underdogs will be competitively matched with solid shots to win. Let’s take a look at the fights to target this week.
Best Bets for UFC Vegas 90: Allen vs Curtis 2
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Germaine de Randamie to win (+110, FanDual)
Fight Breakdown: Germaine de Randamie vs Norma Dumont
Norma Dumont is a large 135-pound fighter. In fact, she has missed weight on multiple occasions, and there is some concern for how the weight cut for this fight will affect her performance. It’s been five years since she last made the bantamweight limit. Dumont has an active striking game that gives her a +1.42 striking differential. Unfortunately, that advantage has not led to many stoppages. Her takedown success has been above average, but I would not classify them as strong in any aspect. The place where Dumont will have an advantage is in grappling, where she will be the thicker, stronger fighter. For Dumont to have success in this fight, it will likely hinge on her ability to close the distance and get the fight to the ground.
While Germaine de Randamie is approaching 40 years of age, she still has a lot going in the fight game. She has defeated three UFC champions as well as PFC champion Larissa Pacheco. Her only losses in the UFC were both to Amanda Nunes. In this fight, de Randamie will have a 5-inch reach advantage to go along with her striking experience. As the taller fighter, de Randamie should use her reach to keep Dumont at the end of her power. I expect de Randamie to be quicker on the feet and lean on her takedown defense to keep the fight standing where she should have the advantage. One knock against de Randamie is that she can have low output at times. She will be the more technical and dangerous striker in this matchup. Combine that with the reach advantage and tougher strength of schedule on her resume, and de Randamie is a value at dog odds.
Risk: 1 unit on FanDual to win 1.1 units.
Brendan Allen + Alex Morono + Ignacio Bahamondes to win (+168, FanDual)
Fight Breakdown: Brendan Allen vs Chris Curtis
I like Curtis and a lot of what he has to offer as a fighter. He has power in his hands, solid takedown defense, and a willingness to exchange. The biggest issue is when Curtis is at a sizable reach advantage, he looks for his opponent to make a mistake so he can counterstrike his way inside the reach. If his opponents are defensively sound and don’t over-strike, Curtis finds himself not active enough and on the wrong side of decisions. The other issue is that when Curtis has been taken down he has turned his back on more than one occasion. Curtis already has a knockout over Allen and could replicate that result if Allen tries to fight the same fight.
Allen has reeled off six wins since his last loss to Curtis. While the competition hasn’t been against top guys, Allen has shown a willingness to take the fight into positions where he holds the advantage. Earlier in his career, Allen almost showed a desire to prove himself as a striker. During this win streak he has seemingly come to terms with who he is as a fighter. On the feet, Allen has above-average power and can stay long and active. The issue is that he can be slow and laboring at times making him too easy to hit. He doesn’t always read incoming strikes the best or use his movement to evade. On the ground, his ability to finish is elite. He rarely misses when he takes the back and has the ability to finish in multiple ways. This fight hinges on Allen getting the fight to the ground. If he does, I think he finishes. If he doesn’t, this fight is a toss-up on the feet. Curtis will have more power and be more durable but the reach and volume will be on the side of Allen. Give me Allen to avenge the previous loss.
Fight Breakdown: Alex Morono vs Court McGee
McGee is a veteran of the sport that is at the end of his career. He has been knocked out in each of his most recent losses. In those knockouts, the concern is that it didn’t take a lot of volume to close out the show. So the knockouts are coming quickly. Approaching 40 years of age, it’s easy to wonder if his chin has gone and the game has passed him by. McGee has always been a bit of a hard-working generalist. Without elite skills in any area, he has always relied on his grit to push him through. At this age, I simply don’t think he has what it takes to get it done anymore.
Alex Morono isn’t the most dangerous fighter but he makes the most out of his skillset. Morono is well-rounded and willing. Morono has solid volume on the feet, where he mixes in timely wrestling to work his jiu-jitsu on the ground. The issue for Morono is that he doesn’t have much power in his striking. I expect Morono to be better than McGee nearly everywhere this fight takes place. Morono is younger and, at this point, just has better movement. I think Morono will have a chance to get the finish here, and as long as he doesn’t do something completely stupid, he should be able to cruise to a win here.
Fight Breakdown: Ignacio Bahamondes vs Christos Giagos
Christos Giagos is a powerful striker with solid submission skills. The problem with Giagos is that he doesn’t display a good fight IQ and struggles to link his skills together. Giagos has power in his hands and is never an easy out. His striking is not technical, as he tends to wing his punches. He has solid wrestling and good submission skills but has shown a tendency to put himself in bad positions that lead to submissions. Giagos is a guy with talent, but I think he will be at a disadvantage trying to get past the reach of Bahamondes.
Bahamondes has a ton of skill. He is long and rangy with slick jiu-jitsu. At 6’3”, he will have a 4-inch reach advantage over Giagos. He should be able to fight behind his jab and use his footwork to cause problems for Giagos on the feet. Up until his last fight, Bahamondes showed solid takedown defense. It was his takedown defense that failed him against Ludovit Klein. I think Bahamondes will fight a similar fight to that of Daniel Zellhuber. While I think Zellhuber is the better fighter, the blueprint was laid out for Bahamondes to take advantage.
Risk: 1 unit on FanDual to win 1.68 units.
DFS Cash Game Plays For UFC Vegas 90
Our strategy for MMA DFS cash games revolves around creating lineups that are projected to get at least four wins on fight night. Targeting fighters in 5-round fights give us more scoring upside and both fighters are usually featured in our lineups. Scoring favors grappling heavy fighters with takedowns and control time being heavily targeted in our lineup construction. Finish rate and stylistic matchups are other considerations when searching for a winning combination on fight night.
Premium Plays ($9000 and Above)
Valter Walker $9400 - Valter is the younger brother of Johnny Walker. While they look nothing alike, they also fight nothing alike. Walker is much more measured in his approach and not nearly the striking threat that his brother is. Walker has solid tools for the heavyweight division. He will look to get the fight to the ground, where he can dominate with pressure and strikes from the top. Walker is a massive man and is taking on a fighter in Brzeski that is winless in the UFC. This fight is set up for Walker to win via finish.
Alex Morono $9200 - Morono isn’t a big puncher but he strikes with solid volume and gets a Court McGee that has been knocked out in each of his last two outings. Morono has only topped 100 DFS points twice but this fight sets up nicely for him to have a shot to do so again this week. Morono has the second-highest win projection this week and may not have the highest ceiling, but it figures to have one of the higher floors.
Ignacioa Bahamondes $9100 - Bahamondes is finish or bust for DFS purposes. Bahamondes projects as the second-highest scorer on the week. While Giagos has been finished in 8 of 11 losses, the majority of them have come by way of submission. Bahamondes typically finishes his opponents with strikes. Thats not to say he can’t finish Giagos, it just may not come early. While I like Bahamondes as an option this week, I would maybe roll the dice on a fighter that has more potential scoring via grappling.
Midrange Plays ($8000 - $8900)
Brendan Allen $8900 - Allen gets Curtis on short notice after training for 5-rounds against Marvin Vettori. Curtis got the KO win in the first fight, but these fighters have gone on different paths since then. Allen is elite at finishing when he gets the fight to the ground. Curtis has solid takedown defense and will be slightly ahead in the striking, but I think Allen will be active in dragging this fight to the ground, where he has a significant advantage. No need to stress in picking the winner here. Just stack the main event.
Victor Hugo $8200 - Hugo is 24-4 and getting a late change in opponents for his debut. Pedro Falcao steps up on four days' notice. Falcao is a veteran in the Brazilian circuit and likely has the better jiu-jitsu. Hugo will look to keep the fight standing where he will have the advantage in striking. The value Hugo offers is in his price. Due to the late replacement opponent, Hugo still has a salary reflective of his previous opponent. Odds will likely move even more in Hugo’s direction, making him a value at a cheaper salary in relation to other fighters among midrange plays.
Value Plays ($7900 and Below)
Chepe Mariscal $7900 - Mariscal has averaged over 100 DFS points over his two UFC appearances. The caveat is that the last win over Jenkins was due to an arm injury. What you can take away from that fight is that Mariscal showed an improved output and pressure game that was unexpected. That pressure could be a problem for Charrier as he will likely have trouble getting off combinations when he is forced to fight off his back foot. Another huge factor here is that Mariscal has fought the much tougher competition, and I think that shows in this fight.
Germaine de Randamie $7600 - Dumont will be the thicker fighter and have a slight advantage on the ground, and while she is the younger fighter, de Randamie will cause problems for her. De Randamie is older but she has a wealth of kickboxing experience to go along with a much tougher resume. Her only two losses in the UFC are to Amanda Nunes and while they haven’t come recently, she has beaten three UFC champions and PFL champion Larissa Pacheco. De Randamie hits harder and should have the faster hands. Dumont doesn’t finish her opponents, so the floor for de Randamie is that she scores en route to a decision loss.
Dan Argueta $7400 - Argueta is in a tough spot here and needs a win. Matsumoto comes in with a lot of hype so Argueta’s back is against the wall. Argueta is a tough fight, however. Argueta has the ability to win this fight and could use his grappling to grind out a win. The line here seems a bit wide, and Argueta has experience on his side. I don’t see Argueta getting finished and his grappling will score well should win. Young fighters making their debuts have fallen short before, and I think Argueta can spoil the show this week.
SWING FIGHT
Dylan Budka $8500 vs Cesar Almeida $7700 - I think it will be important to target one side of this fight. It is your classic striker versus grappler matchup, where both fighters have extreme advantages. When the fight is in their realm. Budka will have the pressure and wrestling advantage where he should be able to dictate the pace and where the fight takes place. Almeida is the much better striker and has a wealth of striking experience outside of MMA. If Budka is unable to take the fight to the ground, Almeida will likely get a knockout. I lean towards Budka in this fight, and the scoring will favor the grappler.
Cash Game Lineup:
Valter Walker $9400
Brendan Allen $8900
Dylan Budka $8500
Victor Hugo $8200
Dan Argueta $7400
Chris Curtis $7300
UFC Vegas 90 Picks and Projections
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