Scott Smith’s Top Plays for UFC Qatar: Tsarukyan vs Hooker
UFC Fight Night in Qatar presents a unique challenge for bettors and DFS players, featuring a card defined by its stark contrasts. The main event offers a clear, high-stakes lightweight clash between rising force Arman Tsarukyan and battle-tested veteran Dan Hooker, while the co-main features a welterweight stylistic showdown between Belal Muhammad's grinding wrestling and Ian Machado Garry's pristine striking. However, the undercard is laden with volatility, as a slew of UFC debutants and fighters with limited Octagon experience create a minefield of uncertainty. Navigating this event requires a careful balance of trusting established data on the top fights and acknowledging the heightened risk that comes with so many unproven commodities.
Best Bets for UFC Qatar: Tsarukyan vs Hooker
Waldo Cortes-Acosta to win (-135, DraftKings)
Fight Breakdown: Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs Shamil Gaziev
This heavyweight clash is a battle of pace versus power. Gaziev is extremely dangerous in the first five minutes. He swings with fight-ending intention and has a solid grappling base to fall back on. However, his cardio has proven to be a massive liability; he fades dramatically if the fight extends beyond the first round. This plays directly into Cortes-Acosta’s hands. Waldo is not a one-punch knockout artist but a volume puncher with an excellent chin and solid cardio. He consistently pushes a hard pace that most heavyweights cannot maintain.
The fight is simple to break down: if Gaziev doesn't secure an early finish, he will lose. Cortes-Acosta’s path is to survive the initial storm, let Gaziev’s output drop, and then take over the fight with his volume and pressure in rounds 2 and 3. Waldo’s durability is the key that unlocks this path, and he has shown a reliable chin throughout his UFC run.
The value in this fight is entirely on Cortes-Acosta. The technical analysis points to him being a live favorite, yet his moneyline is very reasonable. Waldo Cortes-Acosta Moneyline (-135) is an excellent value bet. He has the durability to survive Gaziev's early power and the cardio to dominate as the fight progresses. This is one of the clearer plays on the card from a stylistic perspective. Avoid Gaziev at all costs; his cardio makes him completely unreliable.
Risk: 1.35 units on DraftKings to win 1 unit.
Asu Almabaev wins by decision (+120, FanDuel)
Fight Breakdown: Tracy Cortez vs Erin Blanchfield
This is a nightmare matchup for Perez at this stage of his career. Almabayev embodies the modern grappling style - constant, chain-wrestling pressure that breaks opponents both physically and mentally. His takedown entries are relentless, and his top control is among the most stifling in the division. Perez, while a skilled wrestler himself with decent takedown defense, has historically struggled against elite pressure grapplers like Muhammad Mokaev and Deiveson Figueiredo.
Perez's path involves keeping this fight standing and using his volume striking to build an early lead. However, Almabayev's pressure is constant, and Perez's recent activity issues - fighting just once since 2022 while coming off a major knee injury - work against him. The stylistic reality is that Almabayev will likely secure multiple takedowns and control Perez for large portions of the fight. Perez's best hope is catching a submission off his back or surviving to a close decision, but Almabayev's positional control makes both scenarios unlikely.
Almabayev's moneyline at -196 offers solid value given the clear stylistic advantage. His grinding, control-heavy style is a proven formula against strikers like Perez. For those seeking better value, Asu Almabayev to Win by Decision (+120) presents an excellent alternative. While he has finishing ability, Perez's durability and defensive grappling make a submission less likely than a dominant, decision victory built on takedowns and control time. This is one of the safer plays on the card from a stylistic perspective.
Risk: 1 unit on FanDuel to win 2.2 units.
Bezkat Almakhan to win (+116, FanDuel)
Fight Breakdown: Bezkat Almakhan vs Alessandro Topuria
This bantamweight clash presents a genuine pick’em scenario with slight value on Almakhan. His adjusted Elo (1773.31) is a hidden data point that points to a much tougher resume and a richer experience advantage compared to Topuria’s record. Almakhan’s 1-1 UFC record demonstrates competitiveness at the UFC level, with his loss coming to Umar Nurmagomedov in his debut, while Topuria’s debut victory (1-0) shows promise but lacks depth of competition data.
The striking metrics suggest a closely contested fight likely decided by intangibles. Topuria’s connection to champion Ilia Topuria provides elite-level coaching and game planning, potentially undervalued in adjusted Elo calculations. However, at +116, Almakhan’s 51.98% win probability in our model, offers legitimate value in what projects as a coin-flip fight. With medium confidence and modest edge, this warrants a conservative 1-unit investment on Almakhan.
Risk: 1 units on FanDuel to win 2.16 units.
DFS Cash Game Plays for UFC Qatar: Tsarukyan vs Hooker
Our strategy for MMA DFS cash games revolves around creating lineups that are projected to get at least four wins on fight night. Targeting fighters in 5-round fights gives us more scoring upside, and both fighters are usually featured in our lineups. Scoring favors grappling heavy fighters with takedowns and control time, being heavily targeted in our lineup construction. Finish rate and stylistic matchups are other considerations when searching for a winning combination on fight night.
Premium Plays ($9000 and Above)
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev $9800 - Yakhyaev is as close to a "free square" as DFS gets. He is a massive step up in competition for his overmatched opponent. His high knockdown rate and offensive striking output should lead to an early and violent finish. The combination of a high-volume striking attack and an almost certain early victory makes him an elite, high-floor anchor despite the salary. Expensive for a debuting fighter, but the -1650 line reflects an extreme mismatch.
Arman Tsarukyan $9500 - Tsarukyan is in a prime spot to be the top overall scorer. His relentless grappling pressure, high takedown accuracy (46%), and massive control time are a perfect DFS recipe. He faces a favorable matchup against Hooker, who has been vulnerable to elite wrestlers. A dominant decision with multiple takedowns provides a high floor, while a ground-and-pound or submission finish offers a slate-breaking ceiling. He is the most projectable high-end asset.
Myktybek Orolbai $9000 - Orolbai's wrestling is his key to DFS success. He averages a high number of takedowns with good accuracy (46%) and dominates on the mat. Facing Hermansson, who is returning from a long layoff and moving down to 170-pounds, Orolbai should be able to implement his game plan consistently. A wrestle-heavy decision win would yield a strong score, while a submission finish would easily hit his ceiling. He is a very reliable core play.
Midrange Plays ($8100 - $8900)
Asu Almabayev $8700 - Almabayev is a grappling machine whose style is tailor-made for DFS scoring. He relentlessly pursues takedowns and maintains top control, as evidenced by his 7.65 takedowns per 15 minutes at distance. While a finish is possible (35.8%), his floor comes from his ability to rack up takedowns and control time en route to a clear decision victory. At his salary, he offers one of the best value-to-safety ratios on the slate.
Tagir Ulanbekov $8600 - Ulanbekov's path to DFS production is clear: take down and control his opponent. He is an elite wrestler with solid takedown accuracy and is facing an opponent in Horiguchi who has struggled with wrestlers in the past. While a submission is possible (24.3%), his most likely outcome is a grinding decision win built on takedowns and control time, which would comfortably return value on his salary.
Bekzat Almakhan $8200 - From a pure DFS construction standpoint, Almakhan is the perfect tournament lever. His low ownership is guaranteed, as the public and models will gravitate toward safer, more proven options. If he lands that fight-ending bomb in the first round—a very real possibility given his highlight reel—he instantly becomes a massive differentiator. He allows you to pay up for every other high-priced anchor on the slate, like Tsarukyan and Yakhyaev, without sacrificing ceiling. In a slate where many of the heavy favorites are grinders likely to win by decision, Almakhan offers a rare, cheap path to a 100+ point score.
Value Plays ($8000 and Below)
Kyoji Horiguchi $7500 - Horiguchi is an excellent tournament play offering championship-level skill at $7,600. His elite adjusted Elo (2063.19) vastly exceeds Ulanbekov’s 1878.28, reflecting superior technical ability often undervalued in DFS. His 62% sig strike defense and efficient striking (3.60 landed/min, 45% accuracy) create consistent scoring through defense and precision. While Ulanbekov’s wrestling presents challenges, Horiguchi’s experience against elite grapplers and 55% TD defense provides a competitive baseline. His 91.75 DFS points in wins, combined with +180 underdog status, create massive leverage. The flyweight pace ensures competitive point totals even in losses (70+), making him viable in both cash and GPP formats for contrarian builds.
Belal Muhammad $7400 - Muhammad is the slate’s single best value play, offering championship-level talent at $7,400. His 94.39 average DFS points in wins understates his scoring potential, as his grappling-heavy style (3.87 TDs, 39% accuracy, 3.54 control time) translates directly to DFS points. Against Garry’s 74% TD defense and minimal control time (1.85 min), Muhammad’s wrestling could dominate position for extended periods. His 90% TD defense prevents any grappling reversals, while his 56% sig strike defense keeps him competitive on the feet. The +220 price provides absurd leverage, with Muhammad’s championship experience and elite Elo (2236.62) suggesting the market has significantly mispriced this matchup. Lock him into all tournament lineups and strongly consider for cash.
Nicolas Dalby $6900 - Dalby is an elite leverage play at $6,900, offering 184 minutes of UFC experience against a debuting opponent. His 4.90 sig strikes landed per minute and proven durability (7-5-1 UFC) create a consistent scoring baseline even in competitive losses. Against Izagakhmaev’s complete lack of UFC data, Dalby’s veteran savvy provides genuine upset potential that the +270 price undervalues. While his 41-year age presents legitimate concerns, his recent activity and defensive competence (56% sig strike defense, 59% TD defense) maintain competitiveness. The salary savings ($6,900) allow stacking premium favorites elsewhere, making Dalby an excellent tournament pivot with acceptable risk profile for minimum-salary exposure.
Dan Hooker $6700 - Hooker is a value punt/stacking option at $6,700, offering elite leverage if he catches Tsarukyan early. His 5.03 sig strikes landed per minute and 75-inch reach advantage (vs 72-inch) create the theoretical path to upset via distance striking. However, Tsarukyan’s elite wrestling makes this highly unlikely, with Hooker’s 78% TD defense inadequate against relentless pressure. His 4.72 strikes absorbed per minute and declining durability (3 KO losses) compound concerns. The +455 price reflects genuine long-shot status, but 97.32 DFS points in wins and knockout ability create lottery ticket appeal. Only deploy in large-field GPPs seeking massive differentiation or as a stacking option to save salary in cash games.
Cash Game Lineup ($49,500)
Arman Tsarukyan $9500
Myktybek Orolbai $9000
Asu Almabayev $8700
Bekzat Almakhan $8200
Belal Muhammad $7400
Dan Hooker $6700
Analysis: Tsarukyan, Orolbai, and Almabaev all offer the grappling advantages to score north of 100 points. Muhammad offers championship experience and a solid floor in a fight projected to go the distance. Almakhan is likely the pivotal fighter in the lineup, but offers finishing upside while having 15 minutes with Umar Nurmagomedov under his belt. Hooker is our punt play stack with Tsarukyan, while Dalby could be subbed in his place as a pivot.
Projections for UFC Qatar: Tsarukyan vs Hooker
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