Scott Smith’s Best bets for UFC Kansas City: Holloway vs Allen

Apr 14, 2023

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Max Holloway takes on Arnold Allen in the headliner of UFC Kansas City. Arnold is 10-0 in the UFC, taking on the former champ in Max Holloway. Should Allen manage to beat Holloway, he should be set up for a title shot. The rest of this card is set up with a number of solid lines to target. Navigating some questionable spots will be key to a profitable event this week.

UFC San Antonio Best Bets

Tanner Boser to win (+110 on DraftKings)

Ion Cutelaba vs. Tanner Boser Fight Breakdown

Ion Cutelaba has his back against the wall after losing five of his last 6 fights. Cutelaba is an open book as a fighter. He comes forward with bombs as he looks to get the fight to the ground. When he gets it to the ground he looks to pass guard and improve position en route to searching for submissions to end the fight. The problem for Cutelaba is that he has no chin or gas tank to speak of. Cutelaba will probably get this fight to the ground early, but if he doesn’t get the finish, he will likely fade. A loss here will likely lead to an exit of the UFC for Cutelaba.

Tanner Boser is making his UFC debut at 205-pounds after previously fighting at heavyweight. Boser has often been undersized at heavyweight and relied on his quickness and movement to win fights at that level. Boser has run into trouble when fighting against heavier grapplers that he had trouble getting up. Boser has looked phenomenal with the way he chose to cut weight and looks to be in the best shape of his career. Boser is durable and fights at a solid pace. Boser has a 67% takedown defense and will need to lean on it early in the fight. If Boser weathers the early storm, he should be able to wear Cutelaba down and win this fight. It’s hard to see this fight going to a decision regardless of who wins. Getting Boser at plus money feels like a value here.

Risk: 1 unit on DraftKings to win 1.10 units. (Playable down to -110)