Aaron Rodgers

Fantasy Upside

It is a virtual certainty that Aaron Rodgers will outperform last season after exiting early in Week 1 with a torn Achilles. Our rankings have him as the QB19 with a projection of just under 4,000 yards and 23 touchdowns. His upside is directly tied to the red zone usage of Breece Hall and their overall philosophy when they get in close this year. It's not unreasonable to think his touchdown total could approach 30, which would get him closer to a top-end QB2 option. Especially when you think about the big-play potential with Garrett Wilson and Mike Williams as dynamic targets in the passing game.

Fantasy Downside

If his upside is tied to their philosophy as a team, then so is his downside. It would be a fool's errand to try and use last year's team-level stats as a way to preview how they deploy Rodgers this year. But, if the coaching staff leans heavily on Hall and the big plays to Wilson and Williams don't come, we could easily see Rodgers fall out of the Top 20 at the position.

2024 Bottom Line

It will be a fantastic storyline for the NFL if Rodgers returns to superstar form. It's hard to bet your entire fantasy season on that, though, as it seems unlikely. In redraft leagues, he's someone to avoid even when waiting on the position.