Jake's Week 5 NFL Player Prop Bets
Every week, I’ll be posting a few of my favorite plays in this article with brief write-ups of each play. I’ll use this space up top to recap the previous week and share any thoughts or takeaways I have going forward.
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Week 4: 8-1, +$700
Overall: 17-11, +$446
12.70% ROI
Assumes betting to win $100 on a minus odds prop and risking $100 on a plus odds prop
Note: alts will not count toward the record (wins/losses) but will be included in ROI % and +/- $ totals
Week 4 Recap
It felt good to finally have our breakthrough week of the year after a positive start in Week 1 and back-to-back losing weeks in Weeks 2 and 3.
We had some easy winners, such as Greg Dortch (1.5 receptions), DeAndre Hopkins (under 1.5 receptions), and Xavier Worthy (over 40.5 receiving yards). All three of those bets were extremely straightforward; Dortch was thrown into a starting role where 1.5 receptions was just way too light. Hopkins, with a 1.5 receptions line with reasonable juice, is just flat out wrong. Facing a KC defense with talented outside CBs, Hopkins would've had to make spectacular jump ball catches over higher quality DBs. Also, Worthy at 40.5 was extremely light.
Worthy wasn't wearing a brace on his shoulder towards the end of the week of practice, and the Chiefs were staring 1-3 dead in the face as home underdogs to another top AFC team. This was a must-win, and Worthy is far and away their best skill player. It was clear they were going to feed Worthy in this spot. Stroud u31.5 pass attempts and Ward u19.5 completions were somewhat correlated, and it went just as I had expected.
The Titans couldn't sustain any drives and scored no points, forcing Stroud to do essentially nothing. Stroud got sweaty because of just how incompetent the Titans' offense was, and Ward completed only 38% of his passes (LOL). We had a couple of more sweaty wins, such as Bucky o14.5 carries and Jones o30.5 pass attempts, which should've been easier, but a win is a win. A.J. Brown o4.5 receptions was our only loss, and in hindsight, it probably wasn't the greatest read. The Eagles have no intention of throwing the ball if they don't have to, and they seem broken offensively. They're 4-0, but it hasn't been pretty in the slightest.
Week 5 Bets
Adam Thielen UNDER 1.5 Receptions -140 DK, -147 Builder, -154 Cs, -160 FD (Play to line) UNDER 11.5 yards is a viable alt widely available
Adam Thielen only ran 12 routes on 54 Carson Wentz dropbacks last week while the Vikings were in negative gamescript for most of the game. This week, we have the Vikings as 3.5-point favorites against the Dillon Gabriel-led Browns. We should see a super run-heavy game plan from both teams this week. Thielen is a part-time player in a really tough matchup against a great Cleveland defense in a game where we should see limited pass volume.
Risk to win 1 unit
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