Why Draft Marvin Harrison When You Can Draft Trey McBride?

If you clicked here hoping for a bullish Marvin Harrison Jr. article…I sincerely apologize. You won’t be getting that here. Harrison is currently WR18 and 39th overall on our Multi-Site ADP Tool, which combines the average draft positions of seven different fantasy sites. And that’s a steep drop-off from last season, when you had to take Harrison in the first round on some platforms. Let’s start with Harrison as a prospect before digging into his rookie season and projecting forward to 2025.

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Prospect Profile

Harrison was the near-consensus WR1 in what was an incredibly strong 2024 rookie WR class. The graph below shows Harrison’s stats relative to all WR prospects that entered the NFL from 2015-2024. He was 90th+ percentile in draft capital, receiving yards per game, yards per route run (YPRR), targets per route run (TPRR), and touchdown rate. It’s rare that a WR is a top-four pick in the NFL draft, and a testament to how clean of a profile Harrison had coming into the league.

But we were picking some nits with Harrison at the time, especially given the elite competition in his class like Malik Nabers. As the graph above shows, he was a bit below average in yards after the catch. Relatedly, his 16th percentile avoided tackles per reception was by far the lowest among the elite WRs in his draft class. Matt Harmon of Reception Perception also noted that he sometimes got stuck at the top of his routes against man coverage, and there was some general concern about Harrison’s top-end speed. Again, none of this was really enough to ding his profile, and the fantasy market was completely undaunted about his prospects.

2024 Rookie Season

That takes us to his 2024 season. It’s hard to call it anything other than a disappointment relative to the lofty, if not unreasonable, expectations we had for Harrison. He finished as WR39 in half-PPR fantasy points per game among qualifying WRs. Ouch. There are three reasons for this poor result: Harrison himself, his connection with Kyler Murray, and his deployment by the Cardinals’ coaching staff.

Starting with Harrison, Matt Harmon mentioned, “he didn’t look fast enough in a straight line to threaten people vertically when lined up at X, and he just straight up has to get better working back to the quarterback.” And you see that in the data as well. Curl and go routes were tied for Harrison’s second-most-common route. Among 76 WRs last year with 10+ curl and go routes, Harrison finished…76th in EPA per target according to SIS.

But some of that blame can be placed on the arm of Kyler Murray. According to PFF, Harrison had 45 uncatchable targets last year, leading the league in a stat you don’t want to lead the league in. His 39.5% uncatchable target rate was the highest among any WR with 75+ targets. The lack of chemistry between Murray and Harrison was so clear that Murray was asked about it at the end of the season. And Murray admitted the connection wasn’t where it needed to be, but expected improvement.

And yet, the biggest problem in my mind from last year was the Cardinals coaching staff. They basically stuck Harrison on the outside of the formation with almost no creative alignments and asked him to win at the most difficult WR spot on day one. Harrison’s been dinged a lot for his lack of yards after the catch in his rookie season. Which is concerning because that’s a nit we picked from his prospect profile. But a lot of that again can be placed on the coaching staff.

The graph below shows the relationship between target depth and YAC. You’ll find Harrison all the way in the bottom-right corner. It gets increasingly difficult to earn yards after the catch on deeper routes. And Harrison had one of the highest target depths in the league due to his deployment by the Cardinals.

Continuing down this line of thinking, the graph below shows a WR’s share of routes from the slot at a particular point in the season on the x-axis. And the y-axis shows their fantasy points in their next game. You can kind of draw an arch or a half-circle over the data. The values tend to be smaller on both the left and right sides of the graph. And that makes sense. We want our WRs in fantasy to get lay-up targets over the middle of the field, but also to have the ability to win on the outside.

Harrison’s 25.9% slot rate is ok but near the low end of what we’d like to see. And he performed alright from the slot last year, especially compared to those go and curl route stats from above. According to SIS, Harrison was 88th among 136 qualifying WRs in points earned per route from the slot. Let’s get my guy some more routes out of the slot!

2025 Outlook and Draft Strategy

The issue is that there is nothing to suggest his usage will change in 2025. Because nothing changed at all on the Cardinals offense this offseason. We have the same coaching staff, the same quarterback, and essentially the same skill player competition. And that’s truly unfortunate for a player who has a poor connection with his QB and a coaching staff dead-set on the least-creative usage for a WR1 in the league.

The table below shows some key stats for Harrison from last season. I’m using just Underdog ADP for the modeling process here, with his 27th-overall rank doing some Jalen Hurts squat-esque lifting for his projection. On sites like Underdog, where the ADP gap between Harrison and his teammate, Trey McBride, is nonexistent, I have an incredibly tough time not just taking McBride. I think McBride simply outscores Harrison again in fantasy points, and you get the added benefit of the TE designation.

Looking at non-Cardinals players, Harrison goes right before both Omarion Hampton and Kenneth Walker III on our Multi-Site ADP Tool. I’d rather have both RBs and take my WRs at a different part of the draft. To be honest, I’d rather just take Rashee Rice. Now, Rice is expected to be suspended this season with the most commonly cited outcome in the four-to-six game range. Rice only played three full games last year before getting hurt. But if you extrapolate his per-game average, he would’ve outscored Harrison’s 17-game season in only 10 games. You’re essentially free-rolling the suspension risk without the need to take a zero in your lineup during the weeks Rice is out.

Now, that last part was a bit snarky. I don’t want to be completely out on Harrison. Players can improve between seasons, especially one with as much talent as Harrison had coming into the league. But I have real concerns about both his connection with Murray and especially his deployment by the Cardinals’ coaching staff. I’m almost entirely out at Harrison’s Underdog ADP in the late-20s. But on sites where you’re choosing between him and guys like DK Metcalf and D.J. Moore, I’m willing to take the upside bet.

Bottom Line

• Marvin Harrison Jr. was an elite prospect with a relatively disappointing rookie season compared to his lofty expectations.
• He suffered from a lack of chemistry with Kyler Murray, leading the league in uncatchable targets in 2024.
• And he was held back by the deployment choices of his coaching staff, with an absolute lack of creativity in his alignment and routes.
• The main issue is that both the quarterback and the coaching staff are identical in 2025.
• Harrison is WR18 and 39th overall on our Multi-Site ADP Tool.
• On platforms where Harrison is going right next to his teammate, Trey McBride, I’d rather take McBride, who is projected to score more fantasy points and gets the added benefit of TE eligibility.
• On platforms where you’re choosing between Harrison and wide receivers like DK Metcalf or D.J. Moore, I’d take the bet on Harrison to improve and potentially have unexpected situational factors change.